3奈米产能不足+FEC算法漏洞！专家：1.6T光模组供应为主要瓶颈　供需缺口至少持续至2027下半年

根据野村周二(22日)召开的AI基础设施服务商专家电话会议纪录，1.6T光模组正踩下产业放量的煞车，而卡住它的不是产能意愿，是3奈米制程。1.6T光模组数位讯号处理器(DSP)的结构性供应缺口至少将持续至2027年下半年，因先进制程产能不足与良率偏低，而非需求端的短暂波动。

专家认为，缺口规模从2026年的约300万颗，扩大至2027年的逾2000万颗。今年1.6T DSP需求预计超过2000万颗，实际出货仅1600万至1700万颗，缺口约300万至400万颗；明年需求将攀升至6000万至7000万颗，供给仅4000万颗缺口超过2000万颗缺口。专家判断，产能的实质释放要等到2027年下半年。

这项判断与产业端的实际回应相互印证。在9月12日至14日深圳光博会上，多家重量级厂商确认800G光模组已成为出货主力，1.6T处于送样及小批量导入阶段。

剑桥科技表示，全行业都面临DSP晶片供应短缺，对1.6T产能放量构成制约；东山精密方面则指出，200G EML雷射器已进入量产，但受DSP供给制约，出货量仍然有限。华工科技上月亦称今年上半年800G、1.6T光模组受核心物料到货影响，实际交付量不如预期的50%，7-8月供应链齐套率已恢复至70%。有业内人士预计，光模组市场供不应求的局面将至少持续到2028年。

与1.6T形成鲜明对照的是800G的充裕。 800G DSP采用7奈米与5奈米制程，2025年出货量约2500万至2600万颗，2026年预计接近5000万颗，2027年将进一步跃升至1.2亿至1.5亿颗，增量来源除AI资料中心外，还包括进入换代周期的电信市场。

800G跟1.6T两条产品线的供需轨迹之所以分化，症结在于制程世代，因1.6T DSP必须依赖3奈米，而该过程目前产能不足、良率偏低。

此外，部分前向纠错(FEC)演算法存在漏洞尚待修复，高速DSP介面与网路交换器之间也存在相容性问题，多重障碍叠加，进一步压低了有效供给的释放速度，这与业界普遍反映的瓶颈位置一致。

华西证券指出，200G以上速率EML雷射与高速DSP晶片是中游光模组量产交付的主要限制；中际旭创亦表示，核心确实是3奈米DSP产能供应偏紧，整体仍能维持供应。

供给约束正在重塑产业格局，且向头部集中。高昂的先进制程流片成本、长达约两年的客户验证周期，以及复杂的讯号处理演算法门槛，涵盖FEC、误码率控制、均衡技术与色散补偿，共同构筑了高阶DSP市场的护城河。

DSP需光模组厂商与终端客户共同参与测试，单一测试周期可达约两年，终端客户切换成本极高，倾向延续与既有供应商的合作。部分二线厂商虽具备800G DSP生产能力，但缺乏客户生态，难以实质切入。在中国市场，Sitrus Technology、Joywell Semi等厂商已在研发800G DSP，但尚未形成规模出货。

野村纪录显示，800G DSP长约协议(LTA)价格为45至70美元，1.6T DSP LTA价格为120至150美元，零售价较合约价高出10%至20%。随着明年产能逐步释放，800G DSP合约价格预计下降约10%，1.6T DSP因缺口更大，降幅相对较小。

根据高盛判断，800G光模组2027年降价幅度将控制在个位数以内，1.6T价格维持在700美元以上，产业龙头透过研发协作、直接投资、预付款与LTA锁定产能，为定价纪律提供结构性支撑。

在NPO/CPO路线演进下，为降低功耗，DSP将被移除，均衡、误码与失真校正功能部分转由TIA/驱动晶片承担、部分由交换晶片承担，对TIA与驱动晶片的线性度提出更高要求。主要厂商已实现每通道200G量产，400G仍在研发，核心壁垒在于同时达到高线性度、低杂讯与低功耗。

由于TIA/驱动可采用28奈米成熟过程，中国厂商已实现100G量产、200G处于送样阶段，但在产品稳定性与客户验证周期上仍有明显差距。

随着光模组从可插拔向LPO/NPO/CPO演进，技术要求由传统放大接收转向高频宽、高线性、低杂讯与片上讯号补偿，SerDes IP与线性类比前端(TIA/Driver)等电晶片价值上行。

在深圳光博会上，中国国内相容可插拔技术的NPO被视为国内主流选择，NPO产品已完成客户送样与验证，有厂商预估2027年NPO技术可望实现量产，2028年3.2T光模组开启商用。

根据TrendForce(集邦咨询)指出，阿里巴巴、腾讯等CSP已将NPO视为近中期主轴，Meta与微软倾向优先布局NPO，亚马逊则采取多供应商策略与意式半导体合作。

谷歌的实践提供了另一条技术路径。其TPU与OCS网路中已采用2.4T轻相干(coherent-lite)收发器，仅使用单一固定波长O波段，涵盖2至20公里传输距离。专家指出，轻相干DSP技术障碍低于传统相干DSP，但高于标准PAM4 DSP。

明年上半年是核心验证窗口。纪录也显示，判断缺口逻辑是否成立必须盯住三组指标：结果层面看1.6T光模组与电晶片的实际出货量，以及3奈米DSP在明年下半年的供给释放进度；机制验证层级看DSP良率改善与FEC演算法缺陷修复、400G TIA/驱动送样与客户验证层级看DSP良率改善与FEC演算法缺陷修复、NPO/CPO在交换机侧的导入比例。

专家指出，若2027年1.6T供给明显高于4000万至5000万颗、DSP价格降幅显著超过合约价约10%的假设，或NPO/CPO加速替代导致DSP需求被提前压缩，则当前缺口判断需要下修。主要厂商季度业绩与光模组出货数据，将是此阶段最重要的观察节点。

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支持者称可降低AI资料中心与政府系统风险；业界忧供应受限恐拖慢美国AI基建。", "pv": 172, "pinyin": "AI", "name": "科技", "path": "/new/AI" }, { "id": 6913, "title": "不止车用晶片！辉达将供应丰田GPU与开发工具在自动操控机械「物理AI」领域扩大日企合作", "shortTitle": "不止车用晶片！辉达将供应丰田GPU与开发工具在自动操控机械", "img": "https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6536650/l/e76d865b81e270f80af5556bbb224af3.jpg", "createdAt": "2026-07-16T05:03:07.000Z", "description": "美国 AI 晶片巨擘辉达今 (16) 日宣布，将在自动操控机械的「物理 AI」领域扩大与日本企业合作，将参与日本车厂丰田技术验证城市「Woven City」部分计划的开发。提供基础技术以促进 AI 在日本的应用。辉达将向丰田子公司、涉足先进技术研发的 Woven by Toyota 提供 GPU 和开发工具。这将有助于发展 Woven City 交通管制系统所需的 AI 模型。辉达将向丰田提供下一代汽车的半导体，也将提供开发在制造现场驱动机器人的 AI 所需的软体基础技术。丰田将把这些技术用", "pv": 148, "pinyin": "AI", "name": "科技", "path": "/new/AI" }, { "id": 11113, "title": "量产延至2028！三星电机玻璃基板认证受挫恢复测试至少耗时一年", "shortTitle": "量产延至2028！三星电机玻璃基板认证受挫恢复测试至少耗时", "img": "https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6574896/l/c6c7083941de8406e4feff6e6f46f75c.jpg", "createdAt": "2026-08-13T02:50:04.000Z", "description": "外媒最新报导指出，三星电机与日本住友化学旗下东友精细化学合资的玻璃基板公司GlaSSEM研发遇挫，送测全球主要通讯半导体厂的TGV(玻璃通孔)样品未过可靠性认证，原定2027年下半年量产目标推迟至2028年以后，设备采购时程连续跳票数次，产线建设全面停滞。韩媒《The Elec》近日报导指出问题出在材料与制程，样品于高低温循环、湿热老化测试中出现形变、微孔导通不稳，未达AI算力晶片与CPO光模组封装门槛。三星电机须重调玻璃配方与TGV钻孔参数、重做样品走完客户全流程复测，业内估算周期至少一年以", "pv": 147, "pinyin": "AI", "name": "科技", "path": "/new/AI" }, { "id": 17156, "title": "重申买进三星、SK海力士！花旗：AI「持续学习」将引爆eSSD需求，2027年NAND缺口将扩至6.1%", "shortTitle": "重申买进三星、SK海力士！花旗：AI「持续学习」将引爆eSS", "img": "https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6614027/l/8feacf43dbee372501ca2e65d0e8445d.jpg", "createdAt": "2026-09-23T09:00:06.000Z", "description": "花旗周二(22日)发布全球半导体研报提出一条新的记忆体周期叙事：AI正从「训练完成即参数固定」的典范转向持续学习(continual learning)，这一变化不仅擡升HBM需求，更将记忆体变成AI推理侧的刚需，进而把企业级SSD(eSSD)推入高景气区间。花旗预测，2027年eSSD需求年增52.9%，整体SSD需求成长率约45.0%，NAND市场则将在2027、2028年分别出现6.1%、5.5%的供需缺口。需求端的核心变数是「资料必须被记住」，持续学习要求AI系统在使用过程中不断吸收", "pv": 145, "pinyin": "AI", "name": "科技", "path": "/new/AI" }, { "id": 9756, "title": "Bernstein逆势看多AI！上调伺服器、AI晶片出货预测、称2026年是ASIC转折年", "shortTitle": "Bernstein逆势看多AI！上调伺服器、AI晶片出货预测", "img": "", "createdAt": "2026-08-05T09:50:11.000Z", "description": "Bernstein 最新报告指出，尽管 AI 供应链股 7 月大幅回档，但四大云端业者持续上修资本支出，带动 AI 伺服器与 AI 晶片需求增强，因此调高 2025 至 2028 年出货预测，预估全球伺服器市", "pv": 145, "pinyin": "AI", "name": "科技", "path": "/new/AI" }, { "id": 9511, "title": "南韩打炒房式降杠杆奏效！杠杆ETF交易急冻晶片股波动降温", "shortTitle": "南韩打炒房式降杠杆奏效！杠杆ETF交易急冻晶片股波动降温", "img": "https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6558583/l/fe43d7cd8b4978fc33f1c1118ef906ef.jpg", "createdAt": "2026-08-04T07:20:04.000Z", "description": "在主管机关近期祭出管制后，散户投资单一个股杠杆 ETF 的交易辆大幅萎缩，显示导致市场剧烈波动的投机资金受到抑制。南韩企划财政部长具润哲 (Koo Yun-cheol) 周二 (4 日) 表示，政府还会采取进一步措施抑制股市波动。南韩上周公布新一波管制措施，包括规定单一个股杠杆 ETF 投资金额不得超过投资人总投资资产的 20%。这是继两周前首波措施未能有效抑制散户疯抢高风险商品后，再度加码祭出的限制。具润哲在内阁会议直播中表示，政府将尽速落实上周四宣布的措施，进一步限制单一个股杠杆 ETF", "pv": 144, "pinyin": "AI", "name": "科技", "path": "/new/AI" } ], "prev": { "id": 17225, "title": "Meta Muse爆红却遭亚马逊封锁 AI购物代理人掀平台控制权之争", "name": "科技", "path": "/new/AI" }, "next": { "id": 17238, "title": "事发3个月后才通知！OpenAI智能体入侵政府资料库澳总理：通报流程与方式「不可接受」", "name": "科技", "path": "/new/AI" }, "randomRecommend": [ { "id": 1353, "title": "外汇新手交易员，你会选择STP平台、MM平台还是ECN平台?", "img": "/public/uploads/default/image/2026/05/29/1780041056668_xuzaql.jpg", "path": "/whrm" }, { "id": 4269, "title": "EC Markets 与利物浦足球俱乐部推出 “Hold or Trade”，开启探索心态与决策的新方式", "img": "/public/uploads/default/image/2026/06/29/1782715943841_7xecke.jpg", "path": "/whjy" }, { "id": 4246, "title": "众汇wetrade外汇平台怎么样？是不是黑平台，平台正规吗？", "img": "/public/uploads/default/image/2026/06/29/1782715897769_glp3db.jpg", "path": "/whhq" }, { "id": 1336, "title": "外汇交易小白如何看懂K线图涨跌？一文给你说透！", "img": "/public/uploads/default/image/2026/05/29/1780041051173_su0ou5.jpg", "path": "/whrm" }, { "id": 1377, "title": "全球乱局：美国失序与右翼抬头", "img": "/public/uploads/default/image/2026/05/29/1780041076299_ddynz9.jpg", "path": "/whjy" }, { "id": 1312, "title": "为何外汇交易员都偏爱HHLL策略？无需使用任何指标！", "img": "/public/uploads/default/image/2026/05/29/1780041042338_18od4p.jpg", "path": "/whcl" }, { "id": 1363, "title": "美元反弹强劲经济数据提供支撑", "img": "/public/uploads/default/image/2026/05/29/1780041061137_jlzk5a.png", "path": "/whjy" }, { "id": 1302, "title": "移动平均线交叉策略", "img": "/public/uploads/default/image/2026/05/29/1780041031755_jgohcd.png", "path": "/whcl" } ], "cate": { "id": 28, "pid": 15, "name": "科技", "pinyin": "AI", "path": "/new/AI", "orderBy": 0, "target": "0", "status": "0", "listView": "list.html", "articleView": "article.html", "seoTitle": "", "seoKeywords": "", "seoDescription": "", "type": "0", "dataConfig": null, "level": 1 }, "article": { "id": 17226, "cid": 28, "subCid": null, "title": "3奈米产能不足+FEC算法漏洞！专家：1.6T光模组供应为主要瓶颈　供需缺口至少持续至2027下半年", "shortTitle": "3奈米产能不足+FEC算法漏洞！专家：1.6T光模组供应为主", "tagId": "", "attr": "", "articleView": null, "source": null, "author": "网络", "description": "野村指1.6T光模组DSP受3奈米制程限制，缺口恐延续至明年H2，今年缺口逾2千万颗。
800G DSP采7奈米、5奈米，供给较充裕；800G已成出货主力，1.6T仍处送样与小批量导入。
FEC漏洞与高速介面相容性也压抑供给，产业供应向头部集中，NPO/CPO与TIA/Driver成后续观察重点。", "img": "https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6614058/l/5cd6cd2f257f4ff349a03dbfdb135394.jpg", "content": "根据野村周二(22日)召开的AI基础设施服务商专家电话会议纪录，1.6T光模组正踩下产业放量的煞车，而卡住它的不是产能意愿，是3奈米制程。1.6T光模组数位讯号处理器(DSP)的结构性供应缺口至少将持续至2027年下半年，因先进制程产能不足与良率偏低，而非需求端的短暂波动。\n<img src=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6614058/l/5cd6cd2f257f4ff349a03dbfdb135394.jpg\" alt=\"3奈米产能不足+FEC算法漏洞！专家：1.6T光模组供应为主要瓶颈　供需缺口至少持续至2027下半年\" style=\"width:50%;height:auto;border-radius:6px;margin:15px auto;display:block;\">\n\n\n专家认为，缺口规模从2026年的约300万颗，扩大至2027年的逾2000万颗。今年1.6T DSP需求预计超过2000万颗，实际出货仅1600万至1700万颗，缺口约300万至400万颗；明年需求将攀升至6000万至7000万颗，供给仅4000万颗缺口超过2000万颗缺口。专家判断，产能的实质释放要等到2027年下半年。\n\n这项判断与产业端的实际回应相互印证。在9月12日至14日深圳光博会上，多家重量级厂商确认800G光模组已成为出货主力，1.6T处于送样及小批量导入阶段。\n\n剑桥科技表示，全行业都面临DSP晶片供应短缺，对1.6T产能放量构成制约；东山精密方面则指出，200G EML雷射器已进入量产，但受DSP供给制约，出货量仍然有限。华工科技上月亦称今年上半年800G、1.6T光模组受核心物料到货影响，实际交付量不如预期的50%，7-8月供应链齐套率已恢复至70%。有业内人士预计，光模组市场供不应求的局面将至少持续到2028年。\n\n与1.6T形成鲜明对照的是800G的充裕。 800G DSP采用7奈米与5奈米制程，2025年出货量约2500万至2600万颗，2026年预计接近5000万颗，2027年将进一步跃升至1.2亿至1.5亿颗，增量来源除AI资料中心外，还包括进入换代周期的电信市场。\n\n800G跟1.6T两条产品线的供需轨迹之所以分化，症结在于制程世代，因1.6T DSP必须依赖3奈米，而该过程目前产能不足、良率偏低。\n\n此外，部分前向纠错(FEC)演算法存在漏洞尚待修复，高速DSP介面与网路交换器之间也存在相容性问题，多重障碍叠加，进一步压低了有效供给的释放速度，这与业界普遍反映的瓶颈位置一致。\n\n华西证券指出，200G以上速率EML雷射与高速DSP晶片是中游光模组量产交付的主要限制；中际旭创亦表示，核心确实是3奈米DSP产能供应偏紧，整体仍能维持供应。\n\n供给约束正在重塑产业格局，且向头部集中。高昂的先进制程流片成本、长达约两年的客户验证周期，以及复杂的讯号处理演算法门槛，涵盖FEC、误码率控制、均衡技术与色散补偿，共同构筑了高阶DSP市场的护城河。\n\nDSP需光模组厂商与终端客户共同参与测试，单一测试周期可达约两年，终端客户切换成本极高，倾向延续与既有供应商的合作。部分二线厂商虽具备800G DSP生产能力，但缺乏客户生态，难以实质切入。在中国市场，Sitrus Technology、Joywell Semi等厂商已在研发800G DSP，但尚未形成规模出货。\n\n野村纪录显示，800G DSP长约协议(LTA)价格为45至70美元，1.6T DSP LTA价格为120至150美元，零售价较合约价高出10%至20%。随着明年产能逐步释放，800G DSP合约价格预计下降约10%，1.6T DSP因缺口更大，降幅相对较小。\n\n根据高盛判断，800G光模组2027年降价幅度将控制在个位数以内，1.6T价格维持在700美元以上，产业龙头透过研发协作、直接投资、预付款与LTA锁定产能，为定价纪律提供结构性支撑。\n\n在NPO/CPO路线演进下，为降低功耗，DSP将被移除，均衡、误码与失真校正功能部分转由TIA/驱动晶片承担、部分由交换晶片承担，对TIA与驱动晶片的线性度提出更高要求。主要厂商已实现每通道200G量产，400G仍在研发，核心壁垒在于同时达到高线性度、低杂讯与低功耗。\n\n由于TIA/驱动可采用28奈米成熟过程，中国厂商已实现100G量产、200G处于送样阶段，但在产品稳定性与客户验证周期上仍有明显差距。\n\n随着光模组从可插拔向LPO/NPO/CPO演进，技术要求由传统放大接收转向高频宽、高线性、低杂讯与片上讯号补偿，SerDes IP与线性类比前端(TIA/Driver)等电晶片价值上行。\n\n在深圳光博会上，中国国内相容可插拔技术的NPO被视为国内主流选择，NPO产品已完成客户送样与验证，有厂商预估2027年NPO技术可望实现量产，2028年3.2T光模组开启商用。\n\n根据TrendForce(集邦咨询)指出，阿里巴巴、腾讯等CSP已将NPO视为近中期主轴，Meta与微软倾向优先布局NPO，亚马逊则采取多供应商策略与意式半导体合作。\n\n谷歌的实践提供了另一条技术路径。其TPU与OCS网路中已采用2.4T轻相干(coherent-lite)收发器，仅使用单一固定波长O波段，涵盖2至20公里传输距离。专家指出，轻相干DSP技术障碍低于传统相干DSP，但高于标准PAM4 DSP。\n\n明年上半年是核心验证窗口。纪录也显示，判断缺口逻辑是否成立必须盯住三组指标：结果层面看1.6T光模组与电晶片的实际出货量，以及3奈米DSP在明年下半年的供给释放进度；机制验证层级看DSP良率改善与FEC演算法缺陷修复、400G TIA/驱动送样与客户验证层级看DSP良率改善与FEC演算法缺陷修复、NPO/CPO在交换机侧的导入比例。\n\n专家指出，若2027年1.6T供给明显高于4000万至5000万颗、DSP价格降幅显著超过合约价约10%的假设，或NPO/CPO加速替代导致DSP需求被提前压缩，则当前缺口判断需要下修。主要厂商季度业绩与光模组出货数据，将是此阶段最重要的观察节点。\n<div class=\"related-articles seo-links\">\n <h4>相关阅读</h4>\n <ul>\n <li><a href=\"/new/AI/article-16038.html\" title=\"OpenAI估值冲1.2兆美元？传大型投资人洽谈新一轮融资\">OpenAI估值冲1.2兆美元？传大型投资人洽谈新一轮融资</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/new/AI/article-12658.html\" title=\"裴洛西家族重押Bloom Energy 分析师看好再涨逾三成\">裴洛西家族重押Bloom Energy 分析师看好再涨逾三成</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/new/AI/article-18106.html\" title=\"Anthropic认证！中国最强模型智谱GLM-5.3：开源网安能力只差美国先进模型4个月\">Anthropic认证！中国最强模型智谱GLM-5.3：开源网安能力只差美国先进模型4个月</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/new/AI/article-10728.html\" title=\"智元超宇树居冠！今年H1全球人形机器人出货1.91万台陆厂97%市占美厂连车尾灯都看不到\">智元超宇树居冠！今年H1全球人形机器人出货1.91万台陆厂97%市占美厂连车尾灯都看不到</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/new/AI/article-7334.html\" title=\"记忆体晶片暴涨中国消费者观望非刚需者改买二手\">记忆体晶片暴涨中国消费者观望非刚需者改买二手</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/new/AI/article-503.html\" 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