〈纽约汇市〉美元走强避险需求升温殖利率上扬

美元周四 (6 日) 走强，升至一周高点，受避险需求升温及美国公债殖利率上扬支撑，市场同时静待周五公布的关键就业数据。另一方面，日元兑美元跌破 158，为上周日本当局干预汇市以来首见。

纽约尾盘，追踪美元兑六种主要货币的美元指数 (DXY) 上涨 0.3%，报 99.94，前一交易日曾跌至七周低点。

美元这周稍早一度走弱，投资人转向股票等风险性资产，带动华尔街在 7 月表现平淡后强势展开 8 月行情。

此外，市场预期荷姆兹海峡 (Strait of Hormuz) 有望重新开放，也推动油价下跌，提振市场风险偏好。

不过，原油价格周四明显反弹。媒体报导指出，伊朗与阿曼拟定的荷姆兹海峡重启框架，将禁止美国船舶通行，直到相关赔偿完成为止。

伊朗《法斯通讯社》(Fars) 引述国会议员 Alireza Salimi 报导，荷姆兹海峡方案初步文本目前正由当局审查。根据方案，在赔偿完成前，美国、以色列及其他「敌对国家」船舶将不得通行这条重要航道。

《法斯通讯社》另引述伊朗外交部消息人士指出，依照方案，船舶将由靠近伊朗海岸的北侧航道进入荷姆兹海峡，并由靠近阿曼海岸的南侧航道离开。在特定期限后，两侧航道都将停止通行，改由中央航道取代，届时将由伊朗负责入境管理，出境则由伊朗与阿曼共同管理。

若上述方案属实，其中部分内容预料难以获得华府接受。

美国总统川普本周稍早表示，由于和平协议谈判取得进展，他已取消原定对伊朗发动的强力军事攻击，但也警告，若双方无法达成协议，美国已「准备好采取行动」。自 2 月底战争爆发以来，美伊双方持续在威胁、攻击与让步之间反复交锋。

非农就业报告公布在即

美元周四也受到市场对货币政策前景的不安情绪支撑。投资人抛售美国公债，推升美债殖利率。市场焦点转向周五公布的 7 月非农就业报告，预料将成为联准会利率走向的重要观察指标。

本周公布的劳动市场数据表现不一。美国 6 月职缺增幅低于预期，也较 5 月放缓，7 月 ADP 民间就业新增人数同样不及市场预期，且增幅较 6 月降温。

另一方面，美国首次申领失业金人数已连续第三周低于 20 万人，这种情况自 1960 年代末以来相当罕见。

整体而言，数据显示美国劳动市场仍具韧性，也支持联准会近期将政策重心重新放回抑制通膨。同时，中东冲突导致油价波动，改变了通膨走势，也让联准会官员对未来货币政策方向出现分歧。

Interactive Brokers 资深经济学家 José Torres 表示，「我预期 7 月新增就业人数将连续第四个月放缓，估计仅增加 4 万人。劳动市场正受到供给限制影响，劳动参与率大幅下滑、劳动力规模缩减，同时薪资压力持续升高。」

他指出，「即使失业率维持偏低，只要整体新增就业数据疲弱，就足以带动美国公债反弹。因为一旦固定收益市场投资人开始担心企业可能缩减人力，市场就会开始反映经济放缓风险。」

但他也表示，「目前中东局势仍是市场关注焦点，因此无论非农就业报告结果如何，华尔街最在意的仍是美国与伊朗之间的互动。」

日元干预后首跌破 158

除了美元之外，汇市另一大焦点仍是日元。

美元兑日元上涨 0.4%，至 158.39，为近期日本当局大规模干预汇市以来，首次重新站上 158。

美国财政部长贝森特 (Scott Bessent) 这周稍早证实，美国已与日本联手进场买进日元，这是 2011 年以来两国首次联合干预汇市，也是美国自 1998 年以来首次直接出手。

贝森特周二接受 CNBC 访问时表示，美方之所以协助日本，是因为日元若持续走弱，可能冲击整个亚洲金融市场。

在此次干预前，日元一度跌至 1 美元兑 164 日元，创 40 年新低。

RSM US 经济学家 Joseph Brusuelas 表示，「别搞错了，干预措施之后，日本必须推出真正的政策改变，而这代表政策利率需要上调，才能证明这笔投入的资金是值得的。」

截至台湾时间周五 (7 日) 约 6:10 价格:

美元指数报 99.9683。+0.0251%
欧元兑美元 (EUR/USD) 汇率报 1 欧元兑 1.1521 美元。-0.0260%
英镑兑美元 (GBP/USD) 汇率报 1 英镑兑 1.3451 美元。-0.0223%
澳币兑美元 (AUD/USD) 汇率报 1 澳币兑 0.7030 美元。-0.0284%
美元兑加币 (USD/CAD) 汇率报 1 美元兑 1.4015 加币。+0.0143%
美元兑日元 (USD/JPY) 汇率报 1 美元兑 158.4800 日元。+0.0252%

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报导，荷姆兹海峡方案初步文本目前正由当局审查。根据方案，在赔偿完成前，美国、以色列及其他「敌对国家」船舶将不得通行这条重要航道。\n\n《法斯通讯社》另引述伊朗外交部消息人士指出，依照方案，船舶将由靠近伊朗海岸的北侧航道进入荷姆兹海峡，并由靠近阿曼海岸的南侧航道离开。在特定期限后，两侧航道都将停止通行，改由中央航道取代，届时将由伊朗负责入境管理，出境则由伊朗与阿曼共同管理。\n\n若上述方案属实，其中部分内容预料难以获得华府接受。\n\n美国总统川普本周稍早表示，由于和平协议谈判取得进展，他已取消原定对伊朗发动的强力军事攻击，但也警告，若双方无法达成协议，美国已「准备好采取行动」。自 2 月底战争爆发以来，美伊双方持续在威胁、攻击与让步之间反复交锋。\n\n非农就业报告公布在即 \n\n美元周四也受到市场对货币政策前景的不安情绪支撑。投资人抛售美国公债，推升美债殖利率。市场焦点转向周五公布的 7 月非农就业报告，预料将成为联准会利率走向的重要观察指标。\n\n本周公布的劳动市场数据表现不一。美国 6 月职缺增幅低于预期，也较 5 月放缓，7 月 ADP 民间就业新增人数同样不及市场预期，且增幅较 6 月降温。\n\n另一方面，美国首次申领失业金人数已连续第三周低于 20 万人，这种情况自 1960 年代末以来相当罕见。\n\n整体而言，数据显示美国劳动市场仍具韧性，也支持联准会近期将政策重心重新放回抑制通膨。同时，中东冲突导致油价波动，改变了通膨走势，也让联准会官员对未来货币政策方向出现分歧。\n\nInteractive Brokers 资深经济学家 José Torres 表示，「我预期 7 月新增就业人数将连续第四个月放缓，估计仅增加 4 万人。劳动市场正受到供给限制影响，劳动参与率大幅下滑、劳动力规模缩减，同时薪资压力持续升高。」\n\n他指出，「即使失业率维持偏低，只要整体新增就业数据疲弱，就足以带动美国公债反弹。因为一旦固定收益市场投资人开始担心企业可能缩减人力，市场就会开始反映经济放缓风险。」\n\n但他也表示，「目前中东局势仍是市场关注焦点，因此无论非农就业报告结果如何，华尔街最在意的仍是美国与伊朗之间的互动。」\n\n日元干预后首跌破 158\n\n除了美元之外，汇市另一大焦点仍是日元。\n\n美元兑日元上涨 0.4%，至 158.39，为近期日本当局大规模干预汇市以来，首次重新站上 158。\n\n美国财政部长贝森特 (Scott Bessent) 这周稍早证实，美国已与日本联手进场买进日元，这是 2011 年以来两国首次联合干预汇市，也是美国自 1998 年以来首次直接出手。\n\n贝森特周二接受 CNBC 访问时表示，美方之所以协助日本，是因为日元若持续走弱，可能冲击整个亚洲金融市场。\n\n在此次干预前，日元一度跌至 1 美元兑 164 日元，创 40 年新低。\n\nRSM US 经济学家 Joseph Brusuelas 表示，「别搞错了，干预措施之后，日本必须推出真正的政策改变，而这代表政策利率需要上调，才能证明这笔投入的资金是值得的。」\n\n截至台湾时间周五 (7 日) 约 6:10 价格:\n\n<ul>\n<li><a href=\"https://invest.cnyes.com/index/GI/DXY\">美元指数</a>报 99.9683。+0.0251% </li>\n<li><a href=\"https://invest.cnyes.com/forex/detail/eurusd\">欧元</a>兑美元 (EUR/USD) 汇率报 1 <a href=\"https://invest.cnyes.com/forex/detail/eurusd\">欧元</a>兑 1.1521 美元。-0.0260% </li>\n<li><a href=\"https://invest.cnyes.com/forex/detail/gbpusd\">英镑</a>兑美元 (GBP/USD) 汇率报 1 <a href=\"https://invest.cnyes.com/forex/detail/gbpusd\">英镑</a>兑 1.3451 美元。-0.0223% </li>\n<li><a href=\"https://invest.cnyes.com/forex/detail/audusd\">澳币</a>兑美元 (AUD/USD) 汇率报 1 <a href=\"https://invest.cnyes.com/forex/detail/audusd\">澳币</a>兑 0.7030 美元。-0.0284%</li>\n<li> 美元兑<a href=\"https://invest.cnyes.com/forex/detail/cadusd\">加币</a> (USD/CAD) 汇率报 1 美元兑 1.4015 <a href=\"https://invest.cnyes.com/forex/detail/cadusd\">加币</a>。+0.0143%</li>\n<li> 美元兑<a href=\"https://invest.cnyes.com/forex/detail/jpyusd\">日元</a> (USD/JPY) 汇率报 1 美元兑 158.4800 <a href=\"https://invest.cnyes.com/forex/detail/jpyusd\">日元</a>。+0.0252%</li>\n</ul>\n<div class=\"related-articles seo-links\">\n <h4>相关阅读</h4>\n <ul>\n <li><a href=\"/new/mg/article-8817.html\" title=\"《大卖空》贝瑞示警辉达循环融资吹出「圣经级」AI泡沫\">《大卖空》贝瑞示警辉达循环融资吹出「圣经级」AI泡沫</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/new/mg/article-11419.html\" title=\"AI晶片融资风险疑云博通下杀近6%、市值跌破1.9兆美元\">AI晶片融资风险疑云博通下杀近6%、市值跌破1.9兆美元</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/new/mg/article-10342.html\" title=\"CPU恐成云端业下一个瓶颈！亚马逊AWS出现「CPU短缺」\">CPU恐成云端业下一个瓶颈！亚马逊AWS出现「CPU短缺」</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/new/mg/article-8189.html\" title=\"关税成美国永久政策工具！川普下一步查产能过剩欧盟科技罚款也恐成开征理由\">关税成美国永久政策工具！川普下一步查产能过剩欧盟科技罚款也恐成开征理由</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/new/mg/article-11229.html\" 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