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AI「偏空」隐忧现!美银警告:基础建设成本恐推升利率、使美股承压

2026-08-21 22:41:18 钜亨网 阅读(7)

基于人工智慧(AI)能协助企业以更低成本提高产出、取代部分人力,进而降低薪资支出,AI长期被经济学家与央行官员视为有助抑制通膨的新技术。然而,专家指出,这一切的发生可能还要「再等等」。

AI「偏空」隐忧现!美银警告:基础建设成本恐推升利率、使美股承压

《Business Insider》报导指出,AI抑制通膨这项「长期利多」可能尚未到来。与此同时,AI基础建设快速扩张所带来的成本,反而已开始对物价形成上行压力。

美国7月消费者物价指数(CPI)报告于上周三(12日)公布后,相关迹象更加明显。数据显示,电脑价格单月上涨3.5%,软体价格过去一年则大涨约40%。

美国银行(BAC-US) 近日指出,再加上资料中心争相取得电力所推升的能源成本,以及企业将AI导入成本转嫁给消费者,AI开始呈现出推升通膨的特征。

美银经济学家Stephen Juneau表示,AI不仅推高电子产品的投入成本,也正在带来正向的财富效应,进而支撑消费需求。

他指出:「联准会(Fed)主席华许(Kevin Warsh)一直强调的AI降通膨效应,恐怕还得再等一段时间。」

分析指出,这对股市来说,从两方面都令人担忧,包括短期与长期利率。

就殖利率曲线短端而言,AI推升通膨将使利率政策更加复杂。通膨越高,联准会面临的升息压力就越大,可能进一步提高隔夜拆款利率。

报导指出,这将对经济活动形成抑制,并可能拖慢企业获利成长,而企业获利正是支撑股市的重要因素。

Sevens Report Research创办人Tom Essaye表示,AI基础建设扩张不太可能造成一轮持续性的高通膨,但确实提高联准会在9月会议上一次性升息的可能性。

另一方面,通膨升温也可能推高长期债券殖利率。当投资人预期通膨将侵蚀资产实质价值,通常会要求更高的报酬率。

目前,美国10年期国债殖利率已升至4.64%,高于今年初的4.15%。

MRB Partners在一份给客户的报告中表示,尽管影响长期利率的因素很多,但高额的投资支出正协助推升债券殖利率。该机构预期,长期殖利率仍将进一步走高,可能对股市造成不利影响。

MRB Partners全球策略合伙人Philip Colmar在报告中表示:「我们对美国国债的看空展望,最终将对美股构成问题。」

他进一步指出,自2020年以来,每当10年期美债殖利率出现明显向上突破时,「股市都曾出现剧烈修正。」

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