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因伊朗局势推高各项成本 美国农业面临数十年最严重危机

2026-09-12 03:20:39 网络 阅读(42)

美国中西部谷物生产商目前面临显著的财务压力,美国农场局联合会(AFBF)的研究指出,在缺乏政府补助的情况下,种植黄豆与玉米等九种主要作物的农民今年预估面临310亿美元的亏损,2027年亏损更将扩大至320亿美元。

因伊朗局势推高各项成本 美国农业面临数十年最严重危机

内布拉斯加州农民联盟主席 John Hansen 表示,这是自1980年代以来,这一农业领域所经历最严重的财务下行趋势。

生产成本大幅上涨是造成此次财务压力的主要因素。自今年2月地缘冲突爆发以来,能源与肥料价格走高,美国能源资讯署数据显示,全美柴油均价已从战前的每加仑3.81美元上涨至5.45美元,涨幅逾43%。内布拉斯加州农民 Matt Bailey 表示,常用播种肥「11-52-0」已从10年前每吨470美元,翻倍至目前的900美元以上。

农业经济学教授 Brad Lubben 分析,包括利息支出、劳动力成本和农业机械价格等生产预算,在过去几年中多数皆大幅攀升。

除了高昂成本,极端气候也威胁著作物收成。 内布拉斯加州今年1至7月降雨量仅11.86英寸,较正常水准低约3.1英寸,创下自1895年有纪录以来第18个最干旱的同期纪录。耕作达44年的当地农民 John Dittrich 说明,气候变迁与成本上升带来的经营风险,已达其职业生涯的新高。

对此,Hansen 认为许多作物的实质损害已经造成,近期的雨势就如同马跑了才关马厩门,缓解效果有限。

目前生产端承受的压力已反应在期货市场与民生物资上。 美国12月交割的玉米期货本月上涨10%至每蒲式耳5.15美元。食品研究机构 Food Institute 执行长 Brian Choi 预警,此趋势势必意味着更高的食品价格,且最终会传导至消费端。

尽管政府方面提出了110亿美元的紧急援助方案,但农业团体普遍指出,此方案仍不足以完全弥补农民所承受的实质损害。

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