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三星记忆体明年Q1最高喊涨40% 苹果传已接受、安卓阵营压力大

2026-09-16 01:11:39 网络 阅读(8)

据《介面新闻》从产业链独家取得的消息,苹果(AAPL-US) 已接受三星电子明年第一季记忆体晶片报价。对此消息,《介面新闻》向苹果求证,截至发稿前暂未获回应。

三星记忆体明年Q1最高喊涨40% 苹果传已接受、安卓阵营压力大

报导称,苹果已接受三星电子 2027 年第一季记忆体晶片报价,其中 DRAM(动态随机存取记忆体)价格接近每 Gb 2.0 美元,NAND 快闪记忆体接近每 Gb 0.33 美元,较今年第三季报价大涨 30% 至 40%。

一名储存原厂员工表示,今年手机需求已经相对明确,第四季不会出现太大增幅,目前各家原厂正陆续敲定明年产能,由于苹果是产业龙头,通常也是最早确认采购的一批客户。

记忆体产能目前已相当吃紧。根据 TrendForce 消息,三星、SK 海力士、美光三大记忆体原厂 2027 年 DRAM 与 HBM(高频宽记忆体)产能已基本分配完毕,NAND 快闪记忆体产能也预计锁定,客户实际取得的配额约仅有申请量的六至七成,大型云端服务商与 AI 服务商则透过长期协议锁定大部分产能。

消费性储存涨价压力升高

在记忆体原厂持续将产能转向伺服器与 HBM 之际,消费性储存供给进一步收紧,手机厂商成本压力恐持续升高。

从三星电子(005930KS) 今年第三季报价来看,LPDDR4X 约每 Gb 1.4 美元,季增 3%;LPDDR5X 约每 Gb 1.5 美元,季增 5%;NAND 快闪记忆体约每 Gb 0.26 美元,季增 8%。

第三季实际成交价普遍较报价再高出 1% 至 2%,但涨幅仍远低于市场原先预期,同期伺服器 DRAM 价格则上涨超过 20%,两者价差持续扩大。

尽管手机端储存需求仍在收缩,供给却同步减少。受到成本上涨影响,第三、第四季手机品牌储存采购速度明显放缓,OPPO、vivo 此前甚至拒绝接受三星第三季报价。

另一方面,三星电子(005930KS) 、SK海力士(000660KS) 、铠侠等原厂持续削减消费性储存产量,将更多产能转向伺服器及 HBM。

Omdia 数据显示,三星电子 2026 年 NAND 晶圆产量计划由 2025 年的 490 万片降至 468 万片,SK 海力士从约 190 万片降至 170 万片,铠侠也由 480 万片调降至 469 万片。

消息人士预期,今年第三、第四季储存价格将大致维持目前水准,但随原厂持续压缩消费性储存供给,明年第一季消费性与伺服器储存报价差距可能缩小。

iPhone储存成本明显攀升

苹果接受三星新一季报价,也意味着自身成本压力将进一步增加。TrendForce 测算显示,2026 年第三季,256GB 版本 iPhone 18 Pro 的储存成本年增近 400%,储存零组件占整机物料成本的比重,已从一年前约 10% 升至 34%。

苹果先前已在财报声明中表示,从未见过零组件价格以如此幅度和速度上涨,今年 6 月也已调高 Mac、iPad 售价。9 月 9 日秋季发表会后,iPhone 18 Pro 中国市场起售价亦上调 1000 元人民币至 9999 元,部分既有机型价格也同步调整。

安卓阵营议价空间恐缩小

苹果接受三星报价,对其他手机品牌同样具有影响。消息人士指出,苹果是业界采购规模与议价能力最强的买家之一,一旦苹果接受这一价格,其他手机品牌与记忆体原厂谈判的空间也将进一步缩小。

相较之下,中国手机厂商并不具备比苹果更有利的采购条件,因此承受的成本压力可能更大。

若明年第一季报价如期落地,部分手机厂商为降低成本,不排除扩大使用二手储存零组件。据《介面新闻》了解,目前已有部分厂商进行相关评估,并已在海外市场使用二手储存。

供需紧张局面短期内也难以明显缓解。瑞银预估,2027 年记忆体晶片需求将年增 36.2%,供给增幅仅 19.3%;若排除库存回补因素,实际供需缺口将从 2026 年的负 8.1% 扩大至负 13.6%,记忆体市场供给吃紧的局面仍可能持续。

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    "content": "<p>据《介面新闻》从产业链独家取得的消息,苹果(<a data-symbol-template=\"USS:AAPL:STOCK:COMMON\" href=\"#\">AAPL-US</a>) 已接受三星电子明年第一季记忆体晶片报价。对此消息,《介面新闻》向苹果求证,截至发稿前暂未获回应。</p>\n<p style=\"text-align:center;\"><img src=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6606609/l/86c6d1c6c18d798747a5d833300c86d0.jpg\" alt=\"三星记忆体明年Q1最高喊涨40% 苹果传已接受、安卓阵营压力大\" style=\"width:50%;height:auto;border-radius:6px;margin:15px auto;display:block;\"></p>\n\n\n<p>报导称,苹果已接受三星电子 2027 年第一季记忆体晶片报价,其中 DRAM(动态随机存取记忆体)价格接近每 Gb 2.0 美元,NAND 快闪记忆体接近每 Gb 0.33 美元,较今年第三季报价大涨 30% 至 40%。</p>\n\n<p>一名储存原厂员工表示,今年手机需求已经相对明确,第四季不会出现太大增幅,目前各家原厂正陆续敲定明年产能,由于苹果是产业龙头,通常也是最早确认采购的一批客户。</p>\n\n<p>记忆体产能目前已相当吃紧。根据 TrendForce 消息,三星、SK 海力士、美光三大记忆体原厂 2027 年 DRAM 与 HBM(高频宽记忆体)产能已基本分配完毕,NAND 快闪记忆体产能也预计锁定,客户实际取得的配额约仅有申请量的六至七成,大型云端服务商与 AI 服务商则透过长期协议锁定大部分产能。</p>\n\n<p><em>消费性储存涨价压力升高</em></p>\n\n<p>在记忆体原厂持续将产能转向伺服器与 HBM 之际,消费性储存供给进一步收紧,手机厂商成本压力恐持续升高。</p>\n\n<p>从三星电子(<a data-symbol-template=\"GF:005930KS:FUTURES:STOCK\" href=\"#\">005930KS</a>) 今年第三季报价来看,LPDDR4X 约每 Gb 1.4 美元,季增 3%;LPDDR5X 约每 Gb 1.5 美元,季增 5%;NAND 快闪记忆体约每 Gb 0.26 美元,季增 8%。</p>\n\n<p>第三季实际成交价普遍较报价再高出 1% 至 2%,但涨幅仍远低于市场原先预期,同期伺服器 DRAM 价格则上涨超过 20%,两者价差持续扩大。</p>\n\n<p>尽管手机端储存需求仍在收缩,供给却同步减少。受到成本上涨影响,第三、第四季手机品牌储存采购速度明显放缓,OPPO、vivo 此前甚至拒绝接受三星第三季报价。</p>\n\n<p>另一方面,三星电子(<a data-symbol-template=\"GF:005930KS:FUTURES:STOCK\" href=\"#\">005930KS</a>) 、SK海力士(<a data-symbol-template=\"GF:000660KS:FUTURES:STOCK\" href=\"#\">000660KS</a>) 、铠侠等原厂持续削减消费性储存产量,将更多产能转向伺服器及 HBM。</p>\n\n<p>Omdia 数据显示,三星电子 2026 年 NAND 晶圆产量计划由 2025 年的 490 万片降至 468 万片,SK 海力士从约 190 万片降至 170 万片,铠侠也由 480 万片调降至 469 万片。</p>\n\n<p>消息人士预期,今年第三、第四季储存价格将大致维持目前水准,但随原厂持续压缩消费性储存供给,明年第一季消费性与伺服器储存报价差距可能缩小。</p>\n\n<p><em>iPhone储存成本明显攀升</em></p>\n\n<p>苹果接受三星新一季报价,也意味着自身成本压力将进一步增加。TrendForce 测算显示,2026 年第三季,256GB 版本 iPhone 18 Pro 的储存成本年增近 400%,储存零组件占整机物料成本的比重,已从一年前约 10% 升至 34%。</p>\n\n<p>苹果先前已在财报声明中表示,从未见过零组件价格以如此幅度和速度上涨,今年 6 月也已调高 Mac、iPad 售价。9 月 9 日秋季发表会后,iPhone 18 Pro 中国市场起售价亦上调 1000 元人民币至 9999 元,部分既有机型价格也同步调整。</p>\n\n<p><em>安卓阵营议价空间恐缩小</em></p>\n\n<p>苹果接受三星报价,对其他手机品牌同样具有影响。消息人士指出,苹果是业界采购规模与议价能力最强的买家之一,一旦苹果接受这一价格,其他手机品牌与记忆体原厂谈判的空间也将进一步缩小。</p>\n\n<p>相较之下,中国手机厂商并不具备比苹果更有利的采购条件,因此承受的成本压力可能更大。</p>\n\n<p>若明年第一季报价如期落地,部分手机厂商为降低成本,不排除扩大使用二手储存零组件。据《介面新闻》了解,目前已有部分厂商进行相关评估,并已在海外市场使用二手储存。</p>\n\n<p>供需紧张局面短期内也难以明显缓解。瑞银预估,2027 年记忆体晶片需求将年增 36.2%,供给增幅仅 19.3%;若排除库存回补因素,实际供需缺口将从 2026 年的负 8.1% 扩大至负 13.6%,记忆体市场供给吃紧的局面仍可能持续。</p><div class=\"related-articles seo-links\">\n  <h4>相关阅读</h4>\n  <ul>\n    <li><a href=\"/new/mg/article-14058.html\" title=\"Token价格首度跌破1美元!高盛:「量升价崩」动摇AI资本开支逻辑\">Token价格首度跌破1美元!高盛:「量升价崩」动摇AI资本开支逻辑</a></li>\n    <li><a href=\"/new/mg/article-13105.html\" title=\"伯灵顿Q2获利优于预期但营收、同店销售双双不如分析师预期 全年财测小幅上修\">伯灵顿Q2获利优于预期但营收、同店销售双双不如分析师预期 全年财测小幅上修</a></li>\n    <li><a href=\"/new/mg/article-1799.html\" title=\"AI抢走记忆体产能 美国汽车、医疗设备业吁政府增加晶片供应\">AI抢走记忆体产能 美国汽车、医疗设备业吁政府增加晶片供应</a></li>\n    <li><a href=\"/new/mg/article-4058.html\" title=\"美股重点新闻摘要2026年6月27日\">美股重点新闻摘要2026年6月27日</a></li>\n    <li><a href=\"/new/mg/article-13129.html\" title=\"美股重点新闻摘要2026年8月28日\">美股重点新闻摘要2026年8月28日</a></li>\n    <li><a href=\"/new/mg/article-8390.html\" title=\"美光陷入熊市 反弹还是进一步崩跌?\">美光陷入熊市 反弹还是进一步崩跌?</a></li>\n  </ul>\n</div>",
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    "createdAt": "2026-09-15T05:39:35.000Z",
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