〈纽约汇市〉美元升至近两个月高点 Fed短期内升息预期增

美元周三(23日)大幅上涨，升至近两个月来最高，因投资人对联准会(Fed)短期内升息的预期升温。同时，伊朗对和平谈判进展表示怀疑，推动油价大涨。

纽约尾盘，追踪美元兑六种主要货币的美元指数(DXY)上涨0.51%，报101.06，盘中一度升至101.23，创7月29日以来最高。

联准会上周升息25个基点，将利率区间调升至3.75%至4.00%后，多名联准会官员已表示，如果通膨未能降温，可能需要进一步升息。

联准会理事巴尔(Michael Barr)周三表示，美国央行上周采取重要措施，重新「校准」短期借贷成本，以降低通膨，而未来可能还需要进一步升息。

Brown Brothers Harriman全球市场策略主管Elias Haddad表示，「目前市场关注的就是利率。」

「推动美元走高的是上周联准会鹰派升息后的延续效应，这为美元带来新的动能。本周公布的数据不多，与政策相关的数据更少，但有趣的是联准会官员的谈话，他们基本上都在传达相同讯息，也就是未来还会进一步紧缩。」

在标普全球(S&P Global)公布综合PMI产出指数初值后，美元涨幅进一步扩大。该指数涵盖制造业与服务业，本月升至58.4，创2021年7月以来最高，高于8月的56.0。新订单大幅增加带动整体活动，但强劲需求也使供应链承受压力，并推升价格。

根据LSEG数据，在上述数据公布后，市场对联准会10月会议至少升息25个基点的预期升温，目前机率约为70%，高于数据公布前的约53%。

中东紧张局势推升油价

进一步推动美元上涨的因素还包括油价走高。伊朗最高国家安全委员会秘书Mohsen Rezaei接受伊朗国营电视台访问时表示，只要伊朗提出的条件没有获得满足，荷姆兹海峡(Strait of Hormuz)就不会重新开放，也不会进行谈判。

此外，一名伊朗高级官员告诉《路透社》，伊朗与美国对如何结束战争仍存在重大分歧，但外交努力必须持续。此前，伊朗总统在联合国大会上表示，德黑兰永远不会屈服于美国压力。

外界原本希望联合国大会期间的外交活动能促成这场持续7个月的伊朗战争达成解决方案，相关希望曾推动油价自9月中触及4个月高点后回落，但本周市场情势已出现逆转。

芝加哥联准银行总裁古尔斯比(Austan Goolsbee)表示，联准会需要「保持谨慎」，并可能需要将目前的能源冲击视为持续性通膨来源，而不能预期其自行消退。

欧元走弱、日元承压

欧元兑美元下跌0.51%至1.1389美元，连续第三个交易日走跌，并创一周来最大单日跌幅。

稍早公布的标普全球欧元区综合PMI产出指数初值显示，尽管中东与乌克兰冲突推升企业与家庭的能源成本，但欧元区经济仍展现出意外的韧性。

投资人也在等待美国总统川普与中国国家主席习近平会面，两大强权目前在贸易、科技以及伊朗战争等议题上存在分歧。

美元兑离岸人民币上涨0.17%至6.71元。

日元兑美元贬值0.52%，至158.19日元兑1美元。

日本银行(BoJ)上周将利率升至31年来最高水准，但未能让投资人相信未来还会持续升息，交易员正密切留意任何可能进场干预汇市的迹象。

分析师表示，日本市场因连续假期休市，目前流动性较低，这种情况可能提高日本当局进场干预的可能性。

截至台湾时间周四 (24 日) 约 6:00 价格:

美元指数报 101.1144。-0.0132%
欧元兑美元 (EUR/USD)汇率报1欧元兑1.1383美元。-0.0088%
英镑兑美元 (GBP/USD)汇率报1英镑兑1.3240美元。0.0000%
澳币兑美元 (AUD/USD)汇率报1澳币兑0.7038美元。-0.0142%
美元兑加币 (USD/CAD)汇率报1美元兑1.4104加币。0.0000%
美元兑日元 (USD/JPY)汇率报1美元兑158.3000日元。-0.0189%

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S&P Global综合PMI初值升至58.4创2021年7月以来最高，数据后10月升息25基点机率升至约70%。
伊朗称条件未满足前不会重开荷姆兹海峡或谈判，油价大涨；日元贬至158.19，欧元连3跌。", "img": "https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6614312/l/430fd8781c1ab86d71d9661f74c3c079.jpg", "content": "美元周三(23日)大幅上涨，升至近两个月来最高，因投资人对联准会(Fed)短期内升息的预期升温。同时，伊朗对和平谈判进展表示怀疑，推动油价大涨。\n<img src=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6614312/l/430fd8781c1ab86d71d9661f74c3c079.jpg\" alt=\"〈纽约汇市〉美元升至近两个月高点 Fed短期内升息预期增\" style=\"width:50%;height:auto;border-radius:6px;margin:15px auto;display:block;\">\n\n\n纽约尾盘，追踪美元兑六种主要货币的美元指数(DXY)上涨0.51%，报101.06，盘中一度升至101.23，创7月29日以来最高。\n\n联准会上周升息25个基点，将利率区间调升至3.75%至4.00%后，多名联准会官员已表示，如果通膨未能降温，可能需要进一步升息。\n\n联准会理事巴尔(Michael Barr)周三表示，美国央行上周采取重要措施，重新「校准」短期借贷成本，以降低通膨，而未来可能还需要进一步升息。\n\nBrown Brothers Harriman全球市场策略主管Elias Haddad表示，「目前市场关注的就是利率。」\n\n「推动美元走高的是上周联准会鹰派升息后的延续效应，这为美元带来新的动能。本周公布的数据不多，与政策相关的数据更少，但有趣的是联准会官员的谈话，他们基本上都在传达相同讯息，也就是未来还会进一步紧缩。」\n\n在标普全球(S&P Global)公布综合PMI产出指数初值后，美元涨幅进一步扩大。该指数涵盖制造业与服务业，本月升至58.4，创2021年7月以来最高，高于8月的56.0。新订单大幅增加带动整体活动，但强劲需求也使供应链承受压力，并推升价格。\n\n根据LSEG数据，在上述数据公布后，市场对联准会10月会议至少升息25个基点的预期升温，目前机率约为70%，高于数据公布前的约53%。\n\n中东紧张局势推升油价\n\n进一步推动美元上涨的因素还包括油价走高。伊朗最高国家安全委员会秘书Mohsen Rezaei接受伊朗国营电视台访问时表示，只要伊朗提出的条件没有获得满足，荷姆兹海峡(Strait of Hormuz)就不会重新开放，也不会进行谈判。\n\n此外，一名伊朗高级官员告诉《路透社》，伊朗与美国对如何结束战争仍存在重大分歧，但外交努力必须持续。此前，伊朗总统在联合国大会上表示，德黑兰永远不会屈服于美国压力。\n\n外界原本希望联合国大会期间的外交活动能促成这场持续7个月的伊朗战争达成解决方案，相关希望曾推动油价自9月中触及4个月高点后回落，但本周市场情势已出现逆转。\n\n芝加哥联准银行总裁古尔斯比(Austan Goolsbee)表示，联准会需要「保持谨慎」，并可能需要将目前的能源冲击视为持续性通膨来源，而不能预期其自行消退。\n\n欧元走弱、日元承压\n\n欧元兑美元下跌0.51%至1.1389美元，连续第三个交易日走跌，并创一周来最大单日跌幅。\n\n稍早公布的标普全球欧元区综合PMI产出指数初值显示，尽管中东与乌克兰冲突推升企业与家庭的能源成本，但欧元区经济仍展现出意外的韧性。\n\n投资人也在等待美国总统川普与中国国家主席习近平会面，两大强权目前在贸易、科技以及伊朗战争等议题上存在分歧。\n\n美元兑离岸人民币上涨0.17%至6.71元。\n\n日元兑美元贬值0.52%，至158.19日元兑1美元。\n\n日本银行(BoJ)上周将利率升至31年来最高水准，但未能让投资人相信未来还会持续升息，交易员正密切留意任何可能进场干预汇市的迹象。\n\n分析师表示，日本市场因连续假期休市，目前流动性较低，这种情况可能提高日本当局进场干预的可能性。\n\n截至台湾时间周四 (24 日) 约 6:00 价格:\n\n<ul>\n<li><a href=\"https://invest.cnyes.com/index/GI/DXY\">美元指数</a>报 101.1144。-0.0132%</li>\n<li><a href=\"https://invest.cnyes.com/forex/detail/eurusd\">欧元</a>兑美元 (EUR/USD)汇率报1<a href=\"https://invest.cnyes.com/forex/detail/eurusd\">欧元</a>兑1.1383美元。-0.0088%</li>\n<li><a href=\"https://invest.cnyes.com/forex/detail/gbpusd\">英镑</a>兑美元 (GBP/USD)汇率报1<a href=\"https://invest.cnyes.com/forex/detail/gbpusd\">英镑</a>兑1.3240美元。0.0000%</li>\n<li><a href=\"https://invest.cnyes.com/forex/detail/audusd\">澳币</a>兑美元 (AUD/USD)汇率报1<a href=\"https://invest.cnyes.com/forex/detail/audusd\">澳币</a>兑0.7038美元。-0.0142%</li>\n<li>美元兑<a href=\"https://invest.cnyes.com/forex/detail/cadusd\">加币</a> (USD/CAD)汇率报1美元兑1.4104<a href=\"https://invest.cnyes.com/forex/detail/cadusd\">加币</a>。0.0000%</li>\n<li>美元兑<a href=\"https://invest.cnyes.com/forex/detail/jpyusd\">日元</a> (USD/JPY)汇率报1美元兑158.3000<a href=\"https://invest.cnyes.com/forex/detail/jpyusd\">日元</a>。-0.0189%</li>\n</ul><div class=\"related-articles seo-links\">\n 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