〈纽约汇市〉美元回落本周仍收高通膨疑虑降温难撼动升息预期

美元周五 (26 日) 走低，连续第二个交易日回落，结束先前连六涨后的强劲走势。不过，由于市场对美国联准会 (Fed) 升息预期仍维持高档，美元本周仍收涨。

纽约尾盘，追踪美元兑六种主要货币的美元指数 (DXY) 下跌 0.1%，报 101.32，本周累计仍上涨约 0.5%。

本周汇市焦点集中在美国货币政策走向，投资人持续消化经济数据与油价变化所释出的相互矛盾讯号。

联准会最重视的通膨指标——5 月核心个人消费支出 (PCE) 物价指数，无论月增率或年增率皆较 4 月略为上升，且符合市场预期。其中，年增 3.4%，创下 2023 年 10 月以来新高。

整体 PCE 月增率与年增率也均符合市场预估，年增率更创下 2023 年 4 月以来最高水准。

尽管通膨年增率仍处于高档，但市场对联准会升息的押注反而略有降温，主要原因在于投资人普遍认为，5 月 PCE 可能已反映本轮油价飙升带来的最高通膨压力。

随着本周油价快速回落至中东冲突爆发前水准，市场对后续通膨升温的担忧已有所缓解，也使市场略微降低今年升息预期，同时提高联准会按兵不动的可能性。

此次 PCE 数据公布前，市场才刚因联准会上周发布比预期更偏鹰派的点阵图，大幅调整货币政策预期。最新点阵图显示，至少半数联邦公开市场委员会 (FOMC) 成员预估，今年仍将升息，部分原因正是油价上涨推升通膨。

联准会新任主席华许 (Kevin Warsh) 在首次记者会上也强调，维持物价稳定是联准会首要任务，未来将不再提供前瞻性政策指引。华许预计于下周再次公开发表谈话。德意志银行分析师 Brett Ryan 团队表示，「最新核心 PCE 数据，基本上支持华许在 6 月会议所释出的鹰派讯息，不需要做出太大调整。不过，自美国与伊朗签署合作备忘录后，能源价格持续回落，对通膨是正面发展。尽管如此，我们预期华许仍将避免透露近期货币政策可能采取的方向。」

随着通膨数据公布，市场关注焦点也逐渐转向下周将公布的一系列就业数据。包括职位空缺、初领失业金人数，以及 Challenger, Gray & Christmas 的就业报告、ADP 及美国政府公布的就业报告，都将成为市场评估联准会是否仍有升息空间的重要依据。

Interactive Brokers 资深经济学家 José Torres 表示，「投资人将密切关注接下来密集公布的就业数据，借此判断美国经济究竟还能承受多少次升息。」

他指出，若近期金融环境趋紧后，就业市场仍维持强劲，将代表联准会仍有进一步紧缩政策的空间，而不致对经济造成太大伤害。

反之，若数据显示景气开始放缓，则将对华许领导下、持续以压制通膨为首要目标的联准会形成挑战，因为一旦失业率开始攀升，政策重心可能不得不重新调整。

另一方面，美国密西根大学公布的 6 月消费者信心终值，较 5 月回升约 10%，主要受惠于汽油价格回落。消费者对未来一年通膨预期也由 5 月的 4.8% 降至 4.6%。

瑞银分析师表示，美元在今年下半年仍可望维持强势，持续主导全球外汇市场走势。

日元仍徘徊干预警戒区

其他主要货币方面，日元在连续四个交易日走强后周五略为回落，美元兑日元报 161.75。

前一交易日，日元一度升至 161.95，创 1986 年以来最强水准。不过，日元近期仍持续徘徊在 160 附近，此价位过去曾引发日本政府进场干预。

东京都区 6 月消费者物价指数 (CPI) 大致符合市场预期。其中，核心 CPI 年增率升至 1.6%，显示日本潜在通膨压力仍在，但尚不足以促使日本银行 (BoJ) 采取更积极的升息措施。

分析指出，尽管日本通膨持续升温，但与美国之间仍存在明显的利率差距，持续对日元汇价形成压力。

截至台湾时间周六 (27 日) 约 6:00 价格:

美元指数报 101.3565。-0.0980%
欧元兑美元 (EUR/USD) 汇率报 1 欧元兑 1.1386 美元。+0.1407%
英镑兑美元 (GBP/USD) 汇率报 1 英镑兑 1.3194 美元。+0.0379%
澳币兑美元 (AUD/USD) 汇率报 1 澳币兑 0.6891 美元。-0.2750%
美元兑加币 (USD/CAD) 汇率报 1 美元兑 1.4192 加币。-0.0634%
美元兑日元 (USD/JPY) 汇率报 1 美元兑 161.7300 日元。-0.0433%

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升息预期仍维持高档，美元本周仍收涨。", "img": "https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6514408/l/26d72b495acfd5edda8e480516c091b7.jpg", "content": "美元周五 (26 日) 走低，连续第二个交易日回落，结束先前连六涨后的强劲走势。不过，由于市场对美国联准会 (Fed) 升息预期仍维持高档，美元本周仍收涨。\n<img src=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6514408/l/26d72b495acfd5edda8e480516c091b7.jpg\" alt=\"〈纽约汇市〉美元回落本周仍收高通膨疑虑降温难撼动升息预期\" style=\"width:50%;height:auto;border-radius:6px;margin:15px auto;display:block;\">\n\n\n纽约尾盘，追踪美元兑六种主要货币的美元指数 (DXY) 下跌 0.1%，报 101.32，本周累计仍上涨约 0.5%。\n\n本周汇市焦点集中在美国货币政策走向，投资人持续消化经济数据与油价变化所释出的相互矛盾讯号。\n\n联准会最重视的通膨指标——5 月核心个人消费支出 (PCE) 物价指数，无论月增率或年增率皆较 4 月略为上升，且符合市场预期。其中，年增 3.4%，创下 2023 年 10 月以来新高。\n\n整体 PCE 月增率与年增率也均符合市场预估，年增率更创下 2023 年 4 月以来最高水准。\n\n尽管通膨年增率仍处于高档，但市场对联准会升息的押注反而略有降温，主要原因在于投资人普遍认为，5 月 PCE 可能已反映本轮油价飙升带来的最高通膨压力。\n\n随着本周油价快速回落至中东冲突爆发前水准，市场对后续通膨升温的担忧已有所缓解，也使市场略微降低今年升息预期，同时提高联准会按兵不动的可能性。\n\n此次 PCE 数据公布前，市场才刚因联准会上周发布比预期更偏鹰派的点阵图，大幅调整货币政策预期。最新点阵图显示，至少半数联邦公开市场委员会 (FOMC) 成员预估，今年仍将升息，部分原因正是油价上涨推升通膨。\n\n联准会新任主席华许 (Kevin Warsh) 在首次记者会上也强调，维持物价稳定是联准会首要任务，未来将不再提供前瞻性政策指引。华许预计于下周再次公开发表谈话。德意志银行分析师 Brett Ryan 团队表示，「最新核心 PCE 数据，基本上支持华许在 6 月会议所释出的鹰派讯息，不需要做出太大调整。不过，自美国与伊朗签署合作备忘录后，能源价格持续回落，对通膨是正面发展。尽管如此，我们预期华许仍将避免透露近期货币政策可能采取的方向。」\n\n随着通膨数据公布，市场关注焦点也逐渐转向下周将公布的一系列就业数据。包括职位空缺、初领失业金人数，以及 Challenger, Gray & Christmas 的就业报告、ADP 及美国政府公布的就业报告，都将成为市场评估联准会是否仍有升息空间的重要依据。\n\nInteractive Brokers 资深经济学家 José Torres 表示，「投资人将密切关注接下来密集公布的就业数据，借此判断美国经济究竟还能承受多少次升息。」\n\n他指出，若近期金融环境趋紧后，就业市场仍维持强劲，将代表联准会仍有进一步紧缩政策的空间，而不致对经济造成太大伤害。\n\n反之，若数据显示景气开始放缓，则将对华许领导下、持续以压制通膨为首要目标的联准会形成挑战，因为一旦失业率开始攀升，政策重心可能不得不重新调整。\n\n另一方面，美国密西根大学公布的 6 月消费者信心终值，较 5 月回升约 10%，主要受惠于汽油价格回落。消费者对未来一年通膨预期也由 5 月的 4.8% 降至 4.6%。\n\n瑞银分析师表示，美元在今年下半年仍可望维持强势，持续主导全球外汇市场走势。\n\n日元仍徘徊干预警戒区\n\n其他主要货币方面，日元在连续四个交易日走强后周五略为回落，美元兑日元报 161.75。\n\n前一交易日，日元一度升至 161.95，创 1986 年以来最强水准。不过，日元近期仍持续徘徊在 160 附近，此价位过去曾引发日本政府进场干预。\n\n东京都区 6 月消费者物价指数 (CPI) 大致符合市场预期。其中，核心 CPI 年增率升至 1.6%，显示日本潜在通膨压力仍在，但尚不足以促使日本银行 (BoJ) 采取更积极的升息措施。\n\n分析指出，尽管日本通膨持续升温，但与美国之间仍存在明显的利率差距，持续对日元汇价形成压力。\n\n截至台湾时间周六 (27 日) 约 6:00 价格:\n\n<ul>\n<li><a href=\"https://invest.cnyes.com/index/GI/DXY\">美元指数</a>报 101.3565。-0.0980% </li>\n<li><a href=\"https://invest.cnyes.com/forex/detail/eurusd\">欧元</a>兑美元 (EUR/USD) 汇率报 1 <a href=\"https://invest.cnyes.com/forex/detail/eurusd\">欧元</a>兑 1.1386 美元。+0.1407% </li>\n<li><a href=\"https://invest.cnyes.com/forex/detail/gbpusd\">英镑</a>兑美元 (GBP/USD) 汇率报 1 <a href=\"https://invest.cnyes.com/forex/detail/gbpusd\">英镑</a>兑 1.3194 美元。+0.0379% </li>\n<li><a href=\"https://invest.cnyes.com/forex/detail/audusd\">澳币</a>兑美元 (AUD/USD) 汇率报 1 <a href=\"https://invest.cnyes.com/forex/detail/audusd\">澳币</a>兑 0.6891 美元。-0.2750%</li>\n<li> 美元兑<a href=\"https://invest.cnyes.com/forex/detail/cadusd\">加币</a> (USD/CAD) 汇率报 1 美元兑 1.4192 <a href=\"https://invest.cnyes.com/forex/detail/cadusd\">加币</a>。-0.0634%</li>\n<li> 美元兑<a href=\"https://invest.cnyes.com/forex/detail/jpyusd\">日元</a> (USD/JPY) 汇率报 1 美元兑 161.7300 <a href=\"https://invest.cnyes.com/forex/detail/jpyusd\">日元</a>。-0.0433%</li>\n</ul>\n<div class=\"related-articles seo-links\">\n <h4>相关阅读</h4>\n <ul>\n <li><a href=\"/new/mg/article-18217.html\" title=\"美光便宜到不能忽视？分析师喊上看2000美元\">美光便宜到不能忽视？分析师喊上看2000美元</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/new/mg/article-10013.html\" title=\"赚再多也没用？SanDisk、威腾电子缴亮眼财报盘前股价照样崩\">赚再多也没用？SanDisk、威腾电子缴亮眼财报盘前股价照样崩</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/new/mg/article-7767.html\" title=\"辉达发布AI交换晶片Spectrum-6！分析师：有望让token生成能力成长一倍\">辉达发布AI交换晶片Spectrum-6！分析师：有望让token生成能力成长一倍</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/new/mg/article-12970.html\" title=\"辉达H200晶片终于卖进中国但只占资料中心营收不到1% 北京仍踩煞车\">辉达H200晶片终于卖进中国但只占资料中心营收不到1% 北京仍踩煞车</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/new/mg/article-643.html\" title=\"标普双位数获利成长仍挡不住下一波熊市？\">标普双位数获利成长仍挡不住下一波熊市？</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/new/mg/article-8369.html\" title=\"Fed本周升不升息？华尔街愈来愈没把握升息机率两周内窜至32%\">Fed本周升不升息？华尔街愈来愈没把握升息机率两周内窜至32%</a></li>\n </ul>\n</div>", "status": 0, "pv": 78, "link": "https://news.cnyes.com/news/id/6514408", "createdAt": "2026-06-26T22:06:19.000Z", "updatedAt": "2026-10-26T18:30:15.000Z" }, "position": [ { "id": 15, "pid": 0, "name": "热点新闻", "pinyin": "new", "path": "/new", "orderBy": 0, "target": "0", "status": "0", "listView": "list.html", "articleView": "article.html", "seoTitle": "", "seoKeywords": "", "seoDescription": "", "type": "0", "dataConfig": null, "children": [ { "id": 25, "pid": 15, "name": "美股", "pinyin": "mg", "path": "/new/mg", "orderBy": 0, "target": "0", "status": "0", "listView": "list.html", "articleView": "article.html", "seoTitle": "", "seoKeywords": "", "seoDescription": "", "type": "0", "dataConfig": null, "level": 1 }, { "id": 26, "pid": 15, "name": "港股", "pinyin": "hk", "path": "/new/hk", "orderBy": 0, "target": "0", "status": "0", "listView": "list.html", "articleView": "article.html", "seoTitle": "", "seoKeywords": "", "seoDescription": "", "type": "0", "dataConfig": null, "level": 1 }, { "id": 27, "pid": 15, "name": "台股", "pinyin": "tw", "path": "/new/tw", "orderBy": 0, 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