SK海力士CEO：2027年恐爆史上最严重记忆体缺货供不应求将延续至2030年后

南韩记忆体晶片大厂 SK 海力士 (SK Hynix)(SKHYV-US) 执行长 Kwak Noh-Jung 在其美国存托凭证 (ADR) 于那斯达克正式挂牌的同一天表示，全球记忆体产业将在 2027 年面临史上最严重的供应短缺，即使公司积极扩充产能，AI 带动的需求仍将持续超过供应能力，且这种情况可能一路延续到 2030 年之后。

SK 海力士周五 (10 日) 透过 ADR 募资 265 亿美元、写下外企赴美上市规模最大纪录之后，在那斯达克正式挂牌交易，首日大涨 12.8% 至每股 168.01 美元。

Kwak Noh-Jung 接受《路透》专访时说：「我们预估，2027 年将是整个产业从供应角度来看最严峻的一年。」

他表示：「客户需求持续增加，但我们的产能仍有极限。我们预估，即使到了 2030 年之后，客户需求仍将高于公司的供应能力。不过，我们正全力设法解决这个问题。」

SK 海力士因在辉达 (NVDA-US)AI 晶片所需的高频宽记忆体 (HBM) 领域取得领先地位，已成为 AI 供应链的重要企业。

记忆体业曾因多次供给过剩而对扩产相当保守，如今却愿意大举投资。Kwak Noh-Jung 指出，自 ChatGPT 问世后，记忆体供应短缺持续存在，影响已扩散至整条供应链，推升从 iPad 到 Xbox 等各类产品成本。现在，客户更主动要求与 SK 海力士签署长期供货协议。

他说：「我们一直都是景气循环产业，过去经历过多次高低起伏，但现在情况已经明显不同。」

对 SK 海力士而言，即使景气放缓，长期合约仍有助于维持出货量与价格，因此整体商业模式已与过去不同。

这项看法正是支撑全球 AI 投资潮的重要基础。过去五年来，Alphabet(GOOGL-US)、亚马逊 (AMZN-US)、Meta Platforms(META-US)、微软 (MSFT-US) 及甲骨文 (Oracle)(ORCL-US) 合计新增约 3500 亿美元债务，以兴建支撑 AI 运算的资料中心与基础设施。

然而，目前即便是最大的 AI 模型开发商，也还无法证明 AI 产品能稳定获利。也有不少华尔街人士质疑 AI 热潮最终恐怕变成泡沫。曾成功预测次贷危机、被称为《大卖空》主角原型的贝瑞 (Michael Burry)，以及桥水基金创办人达里欧 (Ray Dalio) 都曾警告，AI 泡沫终将破裂。

SK 集团董事长崔泰源 (Chey Tae-won) 接受《彭博电视》专访时表示：「我有信心需求还会持续成长，而我们的供应能力永远追不上需求。」

崔泰源认为，全球记忆体供需恐怕要等到真正实现通用人工智慧 (AGI) 后，才有机会恢复平衡，「在那之前，我们都需要大量记忆体」。

Kwak Noh-Jung 则把 AI 与网际网路发展相比，「网际网路基础建设花了将近 30 年才完成。我相信 AI 产业规模将远远大于网际网路。」

崔泰源直言：「记忆体已经不再是景气循环产业。」

美国晶圆厂仍在评估中

Kwak Noh-Jung 表示，此次赴美上市的重要目的之一，就是更贴近 AI 客户，因为各家业者对产品设计需求皆不同，与客户更紧密合作将有助于进一步扩大需求。

SK 海力士目前主要生产基地位于南韩利川 (Icheon) 与清州 (Cheongju)，并正于龙仁 (Yongin) 兴建大型新厂。

SK 海力士与三星电子也共同参与南韩政府推动的半导体投资计划，目标是在五年内把全国记忆体晶片产能倍增。两家公司都计划投入约 400 兆韩元 (约 2660 亿美元)，在南韩西南部兴建晶片生产设施。

至于是否考虑在美国设立记忆体制造基地，他表示并未排除可能性，但前提是当地必须符合公司对电力、水资源及人才等条件的要求。

Kwak Noh-Jung 说：「只要符合这些条件，美国、日本及东南亚都在评估范围内。目前还没有定案，我们仍在评估哪个地点最具商业优势。」

SK 海力士目前正投资约 40 亿美元于印第安纳州兴建先进封装工厂，另计划投入 100 亿美元成立 AI 解决方案公司，寻找新的 AI 成长动能。

崔泰源透露，SK 集团目前已在美国投资超过 350 亿美元，而未来投资规模将「远远大于 350 亿美元」。

他也表示，不排除未来再次在美国增发 SK 海力士股票，但首要任务仍是替新投资人创造良好报酬。

他说：「当报酬更好时，就会有更多需求。现在最重要的是维持股价稳定，长期而言，我们仍有很大的上涨空间。」

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Kwak Noh-Jung 在其美国存托凭证 (ADR) 于那斯达克正式挂牌的同一天表示，全球记忆体产业将在 2027 年面临史上最严重的供应短缺，即使公司积极扩充产能，AI 带动的需求仍将持续超过供应能力，且这种情况可能一路延续到 2030 年之后。 SK 海力士周五 (10 日) 透过 ADR 募资 265 亿美元、写下外企赴美上市规模最大纪录之后，在那斯达克正式挂牌交易，首日大涨 12.8% 至每股 168", "img": "https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6531124/l/30ad24c1aec8c94cec96e06ee4b62400.jpg", "content": "南韩记忆体晶片大厂 SK 海力士 (SK Hynix)(SKHYV-US) 执行长 Kwak Noh-Jung 在其美国存托凭证 (ADR) 于那斯达克正式挂牌的同一天表示，全球记忆体产业将在 2027 年面临史上最严重的供应短缺，即使公司积极扩充产能，AI 带动的需求仍将持续超过供应能力，且这种情况可能一路延续到 2030 年之后。\n<img src=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6531124/l/30ad24c1aec8c94cec96e06ee4b62400.jpg\" alt=\"SK海力士CEO：2027年恐爆史上最严重记忆体缺货供不应求将延续至2030年后 \" style=\"width:50%;height:auto;border-radius:6px;margin:15px auto;display:block;\">\n\n\nSK 海力士周五 (10 日) 透过 ADR 募资 265 亿美元、写下外企赴美上市规模最大纪录之后，在那斯达克正式挂牌交易，首日大涨 12.8% 至每股 168.01 美元。\n\nKwak Noh-Jung 接受《路透》专访时说：「我们预估，2027 年将是整个产业从供应角度来看最严峻的一年。」\n\n他表示：「客户需求持续增加，但我们的产能仍有极限。我们预估，即使到了 2030 年之后，客户需求仍将高于公司的供应能力。不过，我们正全力设法解决这个问题。」\n\nSK 海力士因在辉达 (NVDA-US)AI 晶片所需的高频宽记忆体 (HBM) 领域取得领先地位，已成为 AI 供应链的重要企业。\n\n记忆体业曾因多次供给过剩而对扩产相当保守，如今却愿意大举投资。Kwak Noh-Jung 指出，自 ChatGPT 问世后，记忆体供应短缺持续存在，影响已扩散至整条供应链，推升从 iPad 到 Xbox 等各类产品成本。现在，客户更主动要求与 SK 海力士签署长期供货协议。\n\n他说：「我们一直都是景气循环产业，过去经历过多次高低起伏，但现在情况已经明显不同。」\n\n对 SK 海力士而言，即使景气放缓，长期合约仍有助于维持出货量与价格，因此整体商业模式已与过去不同。\n\n这项看法正是支撑全球 AI 投资潮的重要基础。过去五年来，Alphabet(GOOGL-US)、亚马逊 (AMZN-US)、Meta Platforms(META-US)、微软 (MSFT-US) 及甲骨文 (Oracle)(ORCL-US) 合计新增约 3500 亿美元债务，以兴建支撑 AI 运算的资料中心与基础设施。\n\n然而，目前即便是最大的 AI 模型开发商，也还无法证明 AI 产品能稳定获利。也有不少华尔街人士质疑 AI 热潮最终恐怕变成泡沫。曾成功预测次贷危机、被称为《大卖空》主角原型的贝瑞 (Michael Burry)，以及桥水基金创办人达里欧 (Ray Dalio) 都曾警告，AI 泡沫终将破裂。\n\nSK 集团董事长崔泰源 (Chey Tae-won) 接受《彭博电视》专访时表示：「我有信心需求还会持续成长，而我们的供应能力永远追不上需求。」\n\n崔泰源认为，全球记忆体供需恐怕要等到真正实现通用人工智慧 (AGI) 后，才有机会恢复平衡，「在那之前，我们都需要大量记忆体」。\n\nKwak Noh-Jung 则把 AI 与网际网路发展相比，「网际网路基础建设花了将近 30 年才完成。我相信 AI 产业规模将远远大于网际网路。」\n\n崔泰源直言：「记忆体已经不再是景气循环产业。」\n\n<h6>美国晶圆厂仍在评估中</h6>\n\nKwak Noh-Jung 表示，此次赴美上市的重要目的之一，就是更贴近 AI 客户，因为各家业者对产品设计需求皆不同，与客户更紧密合作将有助于进一步扩大需求。\n\nSK 海力士目前主要生产基地位于南韩利川 (Icheon) 与清州 (Cheongju)，并正于龙仁 (Yongin) 兴建大型新厂。\n\nSK 海力士与三星电子也共同参与南韩政府推动的半导体投资计划，目标是在五年内把全国记忆体晶片产能倍增。两家公司都计划投入约 400 兆韩元 (约 2660 亿美元)，在南韩西南部兴建晶片生产设施。\n\n至于是否考虑在美国设立记忆体制造基地，他表示并未排除可能性，但前提是当地必须符合公司对电力、水资源及人才等条件的要求。\n\nKwak Noh-Jung 说：「只要符合这些条件，美国、日本及东南亚都在评估范围内。目前还没有定案，我们仍在评估哪个地点最具商业优势。」\n\nSK 海力士目前正投资约 40 亿美元于印第安纳州兴建先进封装工厂，另计划投入 100 亿美元成立 AI 解决方案公司，寻找新的 AI 成长动能。\n\n崔泰源透露，SK 集团目前已在美国投资超过 350 亿美元，而未来投资规模将「远远大于 350 亿美元」。\n\n他也表示，不排除未来再次在美国增发 SK 海力士股票，但首要任务仍是替新投资人创造良好报酬。\n\n他说：「当报酬更好时，就会有更多需求。现在最重要的是维持股价稳定，长期而言，我们仍有很大的上涨空间。」\n<div class=\"related-articles seo-links\">\n <h4>相关阅读</h4>\n <ul>\n <li><a href=\"/new/mg/article-2701.html\" title=\"京鼎订单满手两地同步扩产营收增逾2成创新高\">京鼎订单满手两地同步扩产营收增逾2成创新高</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/new/mg/article-7250.html\" title=\"苹果财报多空对决！汇丰喊买目标价冲366美元空头警告估值已过热\">苹果财报多空对决！汇丰喊买目标价冲366美元空头警告估值已过热</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/new/mg/article-20788.html\" title=\"费半连跌八日黄仁勋：动荡终将过去 AI变革才刚开始\">费半连跌八日黄仁勋：动荡终将过去 AI变革才刚开始</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/new/mg/article-935.html\" 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美国晶圆厂仍在评估中

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