AI泡沫雷曼时刻将至？Zitron预言OpenAI崩溃迟早冲击股市

人工智慧 (AI) 怀疑论者、《The Hater"s Guide to the AI Bubble》作者 Ed Zitron 认为，OpenAI 正逐步走向自己的「雷曼时刻」。

尽管晶圆代工龙头台积电 (TSM-US)(2330-TW) 公布亮眼财报，市场周四 (16 日) 对 AI 概念股的信心仍未明显改善。

近期市场开始担忧 AI 庞大投资是否终能带来相应回报，而 Zitron 最新发表的一篇约 1.5 万字 Substack 文章，更为市场增添疑虑。这位科技公关公司创办人在文中表示，问题不是 OpenAI 会不会倒，而是何时倒闭。

他写道：「OpenAI 的失败将成为 AI 泡沫的『雷曼兄弟时刻』，象征一个时代的终结、另一个时代的开始，也将让沉迷于 AI 狂热的人清醒过来。」

Zitron 长期批评 AI 产业，他认为市场已出现近乎「邪教式」的 AI 狂热，而 OpenAI 正是支撑这场泡沫存在的核心。

他表示，自 2023 年初开始研究大型语言模型 (LLM) 后，就认定生成式 AI 只是科技界最新一波淘金热。两年前他曾预言 OpenAI 的影片生成模型 Sora 难以商业化，而 Sora 也已于今年 3 月遭终止。

在最新文章中，Zitron 对 OpenAI 的商业模式、以及到 2030 年底拟烧掉超过 8520 亿美元的计划提出猛烈抨击。他表示，OpenAI 今年光是运算支出就将超过 500 亿美元，相当于全球整体运算支出的 50% 以上。

Zitron 指出，过去几年 OpenAI 与 Anthropic 合计募资约 3000 亿美元，而两家公司庞大的 AI 基础建设成本，主要由大型云端服务商承担，进一步营造出未来会有更多企业像 OpenAI 一样大量消耗运算资源的假象。

他特别点名甲骨文 (Oracle)(ORCL-US) 面临高度风险：若 OpenAI 倒闭，甲骨文恐留下「数十亿美元无法回收的资本支出、庞大债务及租赁承诺」。

Zitron 认为，由于 OpenAI 对资金需求极为庞大，要等到 AI 资料中心债务与创投资金几乎耗尽之后，OpenAI 才会崩溃。

根据他取得并分析 OpenAI 2024 及 2025 年审计后的财报，OpenAI 未来 10 年至少还需要再募资三次。他认为，OpenAI 最终将因订阅业务亏损、广告收入疲弱，以及服务成本过高而走向失败。

届时，企业对运算资源的需求将下滑，免费版 ChatGPT 将不复存在，投资人也将对所有 AI 新创失去信心，与 AI 相关的资料中心融资市场恐同步陷入停滞。

Zitron 也认为，Anthropic 同样不安全，该公司一方面持续烧钱训练模型，一方面推出过多 Claude 版本，且缺乏明确策略方向。

他预言，若 OpenAI 倒下，将对整体股市造成「剧烈且沉重」的冲击，「这个情境的规模甚至让我希望自己是错的。」

不过，市场并非所有人都如此悲观。橡树资本 (Oaktree Capital Management) 共同创办人兼共同董事长霍华 · 马克斯 Howard Marks 在周三播出的 Podcast 中表示，他已从原本认为 AI 可能形成泡沫，转而更加看好 AI 技术的发展潜力。

他在《My First Million》节目中表示，之所以改变看法，是因为 AI 已能分析自身优缺点、运用幽默、依照使用者背景提供内容，并利用对使用者的了解调整回答方式，「这真的非常了不起。」

马克斯指出，AI 具备多项「前所未见」的能力。从铁路、网际网路等历次重大科技革命来看，他认为从未有任何技术像 AI 一样，拥有如此高程度的自主性。

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"AI泡沫雷曼时刻将至？Zitron预言OpenAI崩溃迟早", "tagId": "", "attr": "", "articleView": null, "source": null, "author": "钜亨网", "description": "人工智慧 (AI) 怀疑论者、《The Hater\"s Guide to the AI Bubble》作者 Ed Zitron 认为，OpenAI 正逐步走向自己的「雷曼时刻」。尽管晶圆代工龙头台积电 (TSM-US)(2330-TW) 公布亮眼财报，市场周四 (16 日) 对 AI 概念股的信心仍未明显改善。近期市场开始担忧 AI 庞大投资是否终能带来相应回报，而 Zitron 最新发表的一篇约 1.5 万字 Substack 文章，更为市场增添疑虑。这位科技公关公司创办人在文中表示，问题", "img": "https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6537447/l/0ea8dbf4b207f0eb48fa3fc2063af583.jpg", "content": "人工智慧 (AI) 怀疑论者、《The Hater\"s Guide to the AI Bubble》作者 Ed Zitron 认为，OpenAI 正逐步走向自己的「雷曼时刻」。\n<img src=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6537447/l/0ea8dbf4b207f0eb48fa3fc2063af583.jpg\" alt=\"AI泡沫雷曼时刻将至？Zitron预言OpenAI崩溃迟早冲击股市\" style=\"width:50%;height:auto;border-radius:6px;margin:15px auto;display:block;\">\n\n\n尽管晶圆代工龙头台积电 (TSM-US)(2330-TW) 公布亮眼财报，市场周四 (16 日) 对 AI 概念股的信心仍未明显改善。\n\n近期市场开始担忧 AI 庞大投资是否终能带来相应回报，而 Zitron 最新发表的一篇约 1.5 万字 Substack 文章，更为市场增添疑虑。这位科技公关公司创办人在文中表示，问题不是 OpenAI 会不会倒，而是何时倒闭。\n\n他写道：「OpenAI 的失败将成为 AI 泡沫的『雷曼兄弟时刻』，象征一个时代的终结、另一个时代的开始，也将让沉迷于 AI 狂热的人清醒过来。」\n\nZitron 长期批评 AI 产业，他认为市场已出现近乎「邪教式」的 AI 狂热，而 OpenAI 正是支撑这场泡沫存在的核心。\n\n他表示，自 2023 年初开始研究大型语言模型 (LLM) 后，就认定生成式 AI 只是科技界最新一波淘金热。两年前他曾预言 OpenAI 的影片生成模型 Sora 难以商业化，而 Sora 也已于今年 3 月遭终止。\n\n在最新文章中，Zitron 对 OpenAI 的商业模式、以及到 2030 年底拟烧掉超过 8520 亿美元的计划提出猛烈抨击。他表示，OpenAI 今年光是运算支出就将超过 500 亿美元，相当于全球整体运算支出的 50% 以上。\n\nZitron 指出，过去几年 OpenAI 与 Anthropic 合计募资约 3000 亿美元，而两家公司庞大的 AI 基础建设成本，主要由大型云端服务商承担，进一步营造出未来会有更多企业像 OpenAI 一样大量消耗运算资源的假象。\n\n他特别点名甲骨文 (Oracle)(ORCL-US) 面临高度风险：若 OpenAI 倒闭，甲骨文恐留下「数十亿美元无法回收的资本支出、庞大债务及租赁承诺」。\n\nZitron 认为，由于 OpenAI 对资金需求极为庞大，要等到 AI 资料中心债务与创投资金几乎耗尽之后，OpenAI 才会崩溃。\n\n根据他取得并分析 OpenAI 2024 及 2025 年审计后的财报，OpenAI 未来 10 年至少还需要再募资三次。他认为，OpenAI 最终将因订阅业务亏损、广告收入疲弱，以及服务成本过高而走向失败。\n\n届时，企业对运算资源的需求将下滑，免费版 ChatGPT 将不复存在，投资人也将对所有 AI 新创失去信心，与 AI 相关的资料中心融资市场恐同步陷入停滞。\n\nZitron 也认为，Anthropic 同样不安全，该公司一方面持续烧钱训练模型，一方面推出过多 Claude 版本，且缺乏明确策略方向。\n\n他预言，若 OpenAI 倒下，将对整体股市造成「剧烈且沉重」的冲击，「这个情境的规模甚至让我希望自己是错的。」\n\n不过，市场并非所有人都如此悲观。橡树资本 (Oaktree Capital Management) 共同创办人兼共同董事长霍华 · 马克斯 Howard Marks 在周三播出的 Podcast 中表示，他已从原本认为 AI 可能形成泡沫，转而更加看好 AI 技术的发展潜力。\n\n他在《My First Million》节目中表示，之所以改变看法，是因为 AI 已能分析自身优缺点、运用幽默、依照使用者背景提供内容，并利用对使用者的了解调整回答方式，「这真的非常了不起。」\n\n马克斯指出，AI 具备多项「前所未见」的能力。从铁路、网际网路等历次重大科技革命来看，他认为从未有任何技术像 AI 一样，拥有如此高程度的自主性。\n<div class=\"related-articles seo-links\">\n <h4>相关阅读</h4>\n <ul>\n <li><a href=\"/new/mg/article-3367.html\" title=\"「机器人界安卓」来了！辉达发表全栈机器人安全系统Halos Agility Robotics成首家合作伙伴\">「机器人界安卓」来了！辉达发表全栈机器人安全系统Halos Agility Robotics成首家合作伙伴</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/new/mg/article-12254.html\" title=\"单日暴涨177%！莫德纳逼空行情震撼市场 AI晶片热门交易意外成提款机\">单日暴涨177%！莫德纳逼空行情震撼市场 AI晶片热门交易意外成提款机</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/new/mg/article-1919.html\" title=\"特斯拉涨近5% 市场聚焦SpaceX本周五IPO 预测市场押注合并\">特斯拉涨近5% 市场聚焦SpaceX本周五IPO 预测市场押注合并</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/new/mg/article-12062.html\" title=\"贝森特下猛药救美债！华尔街解读为「川普看跌期权」、「财政部版QT」\">贝森特下猛药救美债！华尔街解读为「川普看跌期权」、「财政部版QT」</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/new/mg/article-3843.html\" 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