9400亿量缩藏玄机！独家数据曝卖压转折，两大霸主营收创高「这时机」发动？

美数据降温带动全球股市，台股推升至季线附近却面临量缩与解套压力，从历史经验来看，估值修复至中性后，往往伴随区间震荡与筹码换手，当前风险与机会并存，切忌随意追高，维持资金弹性并锁定长线核心主线，才能在震荡盘中抱紧获利。

〈量缩反弹进入换手期现阶段不宜随意追高〉

受到美国 7 月非农就业数据疲弱影响，市场对联准会升息预期明显降温，国际股市风险偏好回升，台股今天开高走高，加权指数盘中最高来到 45219 点，一度大涨近千点，终场收在 44928 点，成交金额约 8473 亿元，台积电 (2330-TW) 盘中一度上涨至 2410 元，但最后收在 2,380 元，指数涨幅也在尾盘明显收敛，智霖老师早盘就先跟会员讲，今天不能看到开高就急着追，因为预估量没有有效放大，从独家数据来看，现在市场买盘与强势股数量，跟上周其实差异不大，加权与柜买指数又开始接近前一季度区间下缘，本来就会遇到一批解套卖压。

现在不是行情看坏，而是反弹之后要开始进入筹码换手，借镜 2024 年市场去杠杆后的走势，当估值修复回到中性位置，后面往往不会一路直线上去，而是透过震荡整理，把筹码重新洗干净。

〈光通讯基本面持续验证联亚营收带动供应链想像〉

上周节目已经跟大家分析，美股光通讯族群率先转强，现在台股相关供应链也开始接棒，上游联亚 (3081-TW) 营运动能持续转强，自然会让市场开始往中下游寻找机会，华星光 (4979-TW) 后面的成长动能就值得持续观察，光圣 (6442-TW) 经过前一段时间的基期修正之后，目前估值已经回到比较合理的位置，筹码负担也不像前面那么重。

另一条由光学切入 CPO 的路线，先进光 (3362-TW) 目前虽然仍在处置交易休整阶段，但大立光 (3008-TW) 近期股价已经率先转强，当龙头先表态之后，后面的补涨结构就值得留意，这也是智霖老师一直强调的，题材可以轮动，但最后还是要回到基本面与产业位置。

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〈ABF 需求跟着先进封装成长长广站在关键设备位置〉

AI 晶片规格不断往大面积、高层数发展，不管是台积电 (2330-TW) 还是 Intel 的先进封装体系，高阶载板的使用量都在增加，这会直接带动 ABF 载板以及相关设备的需求，长广 (7795-TW) 深耕高阶真空压膜设备，当载板厂开始扩产、设备规格往更高阶发展，长广 (7795-TW) 的位置就会越来越重要，今天股价盘中也攻上涨停。

现在不是看到大盘反弹就什么股票都追，而是要把资金放在长线基本面仍持续成长、产业趋势没有改变的核心供应链，盘势操作难度提高的时候，选对产业、保留资金弹性，才能把真正有基本面支撑的股票抱得牢，邀请投资人下载【陈智霖分析师 APP】，即时资讯都会在 APP 内第一时间分享，带你用数据掌握节奏，每周也会更新信用筹码疑虑名单，帮你避开风险、锁定机会。

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文章来源：陈智霖分析师 / 凯旭投顾

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无不当之财务利益关系以往之绩效不保证未来获利
投资人应独立判断审慎评估并自负投资风险

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style=\"width:50%;height:auto;border-radius:6px;margin:15px auto;display:block;\">\n\n\n〈量缩反弹进入换手期现阶段不宜随意追高〉\n\n受到美国 7 月非农就业数据疲弱影响，市场对联准会升息预期明显降温，国际股市风险偏好回升，台股今天开高走高，加权指数盘中最高来到 45219 点，一度大涨近千点，终场收在 44928 点，成交金额约 8473 亿元，台积电 (2330-TW) 盘中一度上涨至 2410 元，但最后收在 2,380 元，指数涨幅也在尾盘明显收敛，<a href=\"https://news.cnyes.com/tag/%E9%99%B3%E6%99%BA%E9%9C%96\">智霖老师</a>早盘就先跟会员讲，今天不能看到开高就急着追，因为预估量没有有效放大，从独家数据来看，现在市场买盘与强势股数量，跟上周其实差异不大，加权与柜买指数又开始接近前一季度区间下缘，本来就会遇到一批解套卖压。\n\n现在不是行情看坏，而是反弹之后要开始进入筹码换手，借镜 2024 年市场去杠杆后的走势，当估值修复回到中性位置，后面往往不会一路直线上去，而是透过震荡整理，把筹码重新洗干净。\n\n〈光通讯基本面持续验证联亚营收带动供应链想像〉\n\n上周节目已经跟大家分析，美股光通讯族群率先转强，现在台股相关供应链也开始接棒，上游联亚 (3081-TW) 营运动能持续转强，自然会让市场开始往中下游寻找机会，华星光 (4979-TW) 后面的成长动能就值得持续观察，光圣 (6442-TW) 经过前一段时间的基期修正之后，目前估值已经回到比较合理的位置，筹码负担也不像前面那么重。\n\n另一条由光学切入 CPO 的路线，先进光 (3362-TW) 目前虽然仍在处置交易休整阶段，但大立光 (3008-TW) 近期股价已经率先转强，当龙头先表态之后，后面的补涨结构就值得留意，这也是<a href=\"https://news.cnyes.com/tag/%E9%99%B3%E6%99%BA%E9%9C%96\">智霖老师</a>一直强调的，题材可以轮动，但最后还是要回到基本面与产业位置。\n\n〈免费下载【陈智霖分析师 APP】，掌握第一手盘势资讯与信用筹码名单〉\n\nAPP 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allowfullscreen=\"\" frameborder=\"0\" height=\"360\" src=\"//www.youtube.com/embed/0wVKLe9tPDQ\" style=\"position: absolute;top: 0;left: 0;width: 100%;height: 100%;\" width=\"640\"></iframe></div>\n\n〈立即填表体验咨询陈智霖分析师会员服务〉\n\n忠实粉丝请先完成填表申请，每周限时开放体验精选操作名单、盘中到价盘中通知与即时策略更新，面对震荡行情，理性分析与数据判断是关键，立即填表跟上专业：<a href=\"https://lihi.cc/RFzlE\">https://lihi.cc/RFzlE</a>\n\n钱进热线 02-2653-8299，立即迈向系统依据的股票操作。\n\n文章来源：陈智霖分析师 / 凯旭投顾\n\n本公司所推荐分析之个别有价证券 \n无不当之财务利益关系以往之绩效不保证未来获利 \n投资人应独立判断审慎评估并自负投资风险\n<div class=\"related-articles seo-links\">\n <h4>相关阅读</h4>\n <ul>\n <li><a href=\"/new/tw/article-12532.html\" title=\"婚内赠与不是换个名字节税前先看懂风险\">婚内赠与不是换个名字节税前先看懂风险</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/new/tw/article-6126.html\" title=\"Phone 18 Pro Max物料成本暴增近万元零售定价增幅恐针对储存容量采差异化策略\">Phone 18 Pro Max物料成本暴增近万元零售定价增幅恐针对储存容量采差异化策略</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/new/tw/article-3322.html\" title=\"巨亨速报 - Factset 最新调查：英业达(2356-TW)EPS预估上修至3.17元，预估目标价为55元\">巨亨速报 - Factset 最新调查：英业达(2356-TW)EPS预估上修至3.17元，预估目标价为55元</a></li>\n <li><a 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