两大资金买盘推动标普500创新高！台股欲小不易，关键选股清单！

标普500指数上周再创新高，美股贵了吗？

标普500指数第二季的营收年增15.0%，第三季和第四季的预期营收年增分别为11.3%和10.9%。除了营收更成长外，获利表现更强劲，标普500指数第二季的获利年增30%以上。在如此的高成长情况下，标普500指数目前本益比约29.7倍，但预期本益比却仅约20倍，仅略高于五年平均值19.9倍。换句话说，即使创新高的标普500指数，也并不贵。2000年网路泡沫时，标普500指数的预期本益比则达到25倍以上(部分统计30倍)，因此投资朋友不用担忧泡沫风险。

另外，标普500指数在2025年底时，预期本益比达22倍，而上周创新高后，预期本益比反而降至20倍，越涨越便宜的关键，企业获利成长速度快于股价上涨，美国企业获利将是美股多头的基本盘。

美国超级财报季过后，企业回购也将重新开始，高盛预估今年标普500指数成分股回购规模达到1.4兆美元，年增约27%，连续两年突破1兆美元，并且连续三年创新高。企业回购将会是美股上涨的重要动能。

全球杠杆型ETF资产规模于6月达到历史最高的2,180亿美元，至7月缩减至1,540亿美元，大减640亿美元。全球杠杆型ETF规模仅占全球ETF总规模的1%，但占全球ETF日交易总额的16%。VIX指数在7月底时一度突破20，但目前在低于15的历史低档区内，恐慌情绪消退，国际资金将从『去杠杆』走向『再杠杆』，成为推动美股上涨的另一个动能。

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『低预期本益比＋企业回购＋再杠杆＝标普500指数再创新高』由于台美股市正相关性高，美股创新高，必然有利于台股上涨，推动美股上涨的真正的原因还是回归基本面，台股也将相同，上周也提到台股『上市柜1927家公司7月营收合计达到5.79兆元，年增高达41.8%，单月营收创新高公司达205家。』这么强大的基本面，难道无法带动台股创新高吗？台股4万8千点的时候，你会想5万点不是关卡，6万点不是距离，现在反而只因为没在4万点的低点买进，而怕现在买高？

台股成交量开始回升，市场信心回拢，内外资已经提前进场，不想未来买更高，现在就是进场时机。之前提醒过的『增量』题材股，反应在基本面上就是7月营收高成长股，下方所列为7月营收高于50%，其他值得留意的标的，还有半导体、关键材料与未来应用等相关题材股。

台股将挑战5万点关卡，并且5万点非终点，台股多头可用之兵多，没有买在4万点的投资朋友，更不可错过台股第二波行情，行情即将启动，想要提前卡位吗？加入我的行列，可先加入https://user225916.pse.is/money668

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文章来源：摩尔投顾－叶俊敏分析师

本公司所推荐分析之个别有价证券无不当之财务利益关系以往之绩效不保证未来获利投资人应独立判断审慎评估并自负投资风险

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auto;display:block;\">\n\n\n标普500指数第二季的营收年增15.0%，第三季和第四季的预期营收年增分别为11.3%和10.9%。除了营收更成长外，获利表现更强劲，标普500指数第二季的获利年增30%以上。在如此的高成长情况下，标普500指数目前本益比约29.7倍，但预期本益比却仅约20倍，仅略高于五年平均值19.9倍。换句话说，即使创新高的标普500指数，也并不贵。2000年网路泡沫时，标普500指数的预期本益比则达到25倍以上(部分统计30倍)，因此投资朋友不用担忧泡沫风险。\n\n另外，标普500指数在2025年底时，预期本益比达22倍，而上周创新高后，预期本益比反而降至20倍，越涨越便宜的关键，企业获利成长速度快于股价上涨，美国企业获利将是美股多头的基本盘。\n\n美国超级财报季过后，企业回购也将重新开始，高盛预估今年标普500指数成分股回购规模达到1.4兆美元，年增约27%，连续两年突破1兆美元，并且连续三年创新高。企业回购将会是美股上涨的重要动能。\n\n全球杠杆型ETF资产规模于6月达到历史最高的2,180亿美元，至7月缩减至1,540亿美元，大减640亿美元。全球杠杆型ETF规模仅占全球ETF总规模的1%，但占全球ETF日交易总额的16%。VIX指数在7月底时一度突破20，但目前在低于15的历史低档区内，恐慌情绪消退，国际资金将从『去杠杆』走向『再杠杆』，成为推动美股上涨的另一个动能。\n\n更多的投资策略与选股资讯都在－ \nLINE@ <a href=\"https://user225916.pse.is/money668\">https://user225916.pse.is/money668</a> \n频道连结<a href=\"https://www.youtube.com/@money66868\">https://www.youtube.com/@money66868</a>\n\n『低预期本益比＋企业回购＋再杠杆＝标普500指数再创新高』由于台美股市正相关性高，美股创新高，必然有利于台股上涨，推动美股上涨的真正的原因还是回归基本面，台股也将相同，上周也提到台股『上市柜1927家公司7月营收合计达到5.79兆元，年增高达41.8%，单月营收创新高公司达205家。』这么强大的基本面，难道无法带动台股创新高吗？台股4万8千点的时候，你会想5万点不是关卡，6万点不是距离，现在反而只因为没在4万点的低点买进，而怕现在买高？\n\n台股成交量开始回升，市场信心回拢，内外资已经提前进场，不想未来买更高，现在就是进场时机。之前提醒过的『增量』题材股，反应在基本面上就是7月营收高成长股，下方所列为7月营收高于50%，其他值得留意的标的，还有半导体、关键材料与未来应用等相关题材股。\n\n台股将挑战5万点关卡，并且5万点非终点，台股多头可用之兵多，没有买在4万点的投资朋友，更不可错过台股第二波行情，行情即将启动，想要提前卡位吗？加入我的行列，可先加入<a href=\"https://user225916.pse.is/money668\">https://user225916.pse.is/money668</a>\n\n挺你过中秋！私讯【+99】领取优惠活动\n\n7月营收年增＞50%绩优股如下：\n\n被动元件：国巨(2327-TW)、日电贸(3090-TW)\n\nASIC：创意(3443-TW)、世芯-KY(3661-TW)、爱普*(6531-TW)\n\nAI绩优股：旺矽(6223-TW)、南电(8046-TW)、奇𬭎(3017-TW)、启碁(6285-TW)、新盛力(4931-TW)、纬创(3231-TW)、纬颖(6669-TW)、颖崴(6515-TW)、尖点(8021-TW)\n\nCCL：台光电(2383-TW)、台燿(6274-TW)、联茂(6213-TW)、金居(8358-TW)、德宏(5475-TW)\n\n更多产业趋势预告+盘中讯息→ \n都在叶老师的 Line @： \nLINE@ID：@money668 (@要记得加)\n\n<a href=\"https://user225916.pse.is/money668\">https://user225916.pse.is/money668</a> \n加入之后可以留言《巨亨网》让我知道你从哪里认识我的，有优惠活动或赠品会优先通知喔！\n\n文章来源：摩尔投顾－叶俊敏分析师\n\n本公司所推荐分析之个别有价证券无不当之财务利益关系以往之绩效不保证未来获利投资人应独立判断审慎评估并自负投资风险\n<div class=\"related-articles seo-links\">\n <h4>相关阅读</h4>\n <ul>\n <li><a href=\"/new/tw/article-11584.html\" title=\"外资连六买加码454亿、投信翻空三大法人买超291.06亿元\">外资连六买加码454亿、投信翻空三大法人买超291.06亿元</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/new/tw/article-20279.html\" title=\"〈智慧能源周〉台塑新智能携手绿捷跨足机器狗电池开发彰滨二期厂力拚2028年Q2量产\">〈智慧能源周〉台塑新智能携手绿捷跨足机器狗电池开发彰滨二期厂力拚2028年Q2量产</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/new/tw/article-21968.html\" title=\"【力成 (6239-TW) 法说会 AI 摘要】2026/10/27\">【力成 (6239-TW) 法说会 AI 摘要】2026/10/27</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/new/tw/article-15421.html\" title=\"30年美债殖利率飙5%免惊！瑞银陈敏兰点名半导体优势挺台股最直接受惠AI\">30年美债殖利率飙5%免惊！瑞银陈敏兰点名半导体优势挺台股最直接受惠AI</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/new/tw/article-8416.html\" title=\"盘中速报 - 集中市场加权指数下跌-1188.4点至42445.79点，跌幅2.72%\">盘中速报 - 集中市场加权指数下跌-1188.4点至42445.79点，跌幅2.72%</a></li>\n <li><a 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