天天财经

反弹行情进入分化期!量缩横盘短打胜率最高,两大强势主流「二次买点」浮现!

2026-09-11 23:20:14 网络 阅读(47)

美债殖利率降温带动国际股市反弹,台股加权指数力求站稳支撑,面对成交量能萎缩的区间震荡格局,市场进入方向分化期,控管中性持股水位并搭配低进高出的短打策略是现阶段致胜关键。

反弹行情进入分化期!量缩横盘短打胜率最高,两大强势主流「二次买点」浮现!

〈量缩横盘格局延续 45000点要尽快站稳〉
受到美国财政部释出购债消息、长天期公债殖利率压力降温带动,台股今盘中一度来到45160点,但随后卖压出笼震荡走低,所幸尾盘低接买盘逐步进场,终场加权指数收在44933点,成交量萎缩至约7930亿元,持续低于月均量,从期权结构来看,近月选择权比已重新回升至1之上,接下来指数要尽快站稳健45000点,才能进一步确认支撑力道。

〈散热拉回不是坏事 光通讯资金再度汇聚〉
散热族群前波涨幅不小,短线出现拉回本来就是正常的筹码交换,只要产业趋势没有改变,拉回寻求支撑,反而是重新检视进场位置的机会,不用看到股价下跌就急着否定产业方向,这也是为什么奇𬭎(3017-TW)前几日涨高,智霖老师先带会员做调节,涨多之后回测支撑,反而是重新观察介入节奏的重要时点。另一方面,光通讯族群尾盘再度出现资金汇聚,光圣(6442-TW)、华星光(4979-TW)走势明显强于大盘,代表光通讯依旧是这一波资金认同度相对高的方向,市场进入分化之后,不是所有股票都会一起涨,选股会比猜指数更加重要。

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〈量能没有放大以前 耐心等主流股给位置〉
台积电(2330-TW)相关下游供应链,历经一段时间量缩整理后,短线走势虽然比较平淡,但也正因为现在市场还没有高度追逐,反而保留中长线逢低布局的安全边际,目前多项量化指标与市场广度仍处于中性区间,在成交量没有出现明确方向性放大以前,还不到全面积极追价的阶段,现阶段就是量缩横盘、个股轮动,低进高出、不要追高,优先锁定稳居月线与季线之上的主流产业,持续观察成交量能何时重新放大,再提高攻击水位,邀请投资人下载【陈智霖分析师APP】,即时资讯都会在APP内第一时间分享,带你用数据掌握节奏,每周也会更新信用筹码疑虑名单,帮你避开风险、锁定机会。

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文章来源:陈智霖分析师 / 凯旭投顾

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    "content": "<p>美债殖利率降温带动国际股市反弹,台股加权指数力求站稳支撑,面对成交量能萎缩的区间震荡格局,市场进入方向分化期,控管中性持股水位并搭配低进高出的短打策略是现阶段致胜关键。</p>\n<p style=\"text-align:center;\"><img src=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6582686/m/7b1d91d8e8cbf8a0ebbec57afe519fc5.jpg\" alt=\"反弹行情进入分化期!量缩横盘短打胜率最高,两大强势主流「二次买点」浮现!\" style=\"width:50%;height:auto;border-radius:6px;margin:15px auto;display:block;\"></p>\n\n\n<p><strong>〈量缩横盘格局延续 45000点要尽快站稳〉</strong><br>\n受到美国财政部释出购债消息、长天期公债殖利率压力降温带动,台股今盘中一度来到45160点,但随后卖压出笼震荡走低,所幸尾盘低接买盘逐步进场,终场加权指数收在44933点,成交量萎缩至约7930亿元,持续低于月均量,从期权结构来看,近月选择权比已重新回升至1之上,接下来指数要尽快站稳健45000点,才能进一步确认支撑力道。</p>\n\n<p><strong>〈散热拉回不是坏事 光通讯资金再度汇聚〉</strong><br>\n散热族群前波涨幅不小,短线出现拉回本来就是正常的筹码交换,只要产业趋势没有改变,拉回寻求支撑,反而是重新检视进场位置的机会,不用看到股价下跌就急着否定产业方向,这也是为什么奇𬭎(3017-TW)前几日涨高,<a href=\"https://news.cnyes.com/tag/%E9%99%B3%E6%99%BA%E9%9C%96\">智霖老师</a>先带会员做调节,涨多之后回测支撑,反而是重新观察介入节奏的重要时点。另一方面,光通讯族群尾盘再度出现资金汇聚,光圣(6442-TW)、华星光(4979-TW)走势明显强于大盘,代表光通讯依旧是这一波资金认同度相对高的方向,市场进入分化之后,不是所有股票都会一起涨,选股会比猜指数更加重要。</p>\n\n<p><strong>〈</strong><strong>免费下载【陈智霖分析师APP</strong><strong>】,掌握第一手盘势资讯与信用筹码名单</strong><strong>〉</strong><br>\nAPP选股会员每月限额招收,名额有限,每周都会提供最新「信用筹码疑虑名单」,邀请您点选连结下载【陈智霖分析师APP】:<a href=\"https://lihi.cc/zwrii\">https://lihi.cc/zwrii</a></p>\n\n<figure><img data-height=\"189\" data-mime=\"image/jpeg\" data-ratio=\"4.021164021164021\" data-src-m=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6582686/m/bf2a82b038ad912914a38ad47906a1eb.jpg\" data-width=\"760\" src=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6582686/l/bf2a82b038ad912914a38ad47906a1eb.jpg\" srcset=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6582686/l/bf2a82b038ad912914a38ad47906a1eb.jpg 1x,https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6582686/xl/bf2a82b038ad912914a38ad47906a1eb.jpg 2x,https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6582686/xxl/bf2a82b038ad912914a38ad47906a1eb.jpg 3x\"></figure>\n\n<p><strong>〈量能没有放大以前 耐心等主流股给位置〉</strong><br>\n台积电(2330-TW)相关下游供应链,历经一段时间量缩整理后,短线走势虽然比较平淡,但也正因为现在市场还没有高度追逐,反而保留中长线逢低布局的安全边际,目前多项量化指标与市场广度仍处于中性区间,在成交量没有出现明确方向性放大以前,还不到全面积极追价的阶段,现阶段就是量缩横盘、个股轮动,低进高出、不要追高,优先锁定稳居月线与季线之上的主流产业,持续观察成交量能何时重新放大,再提高攻击水位,邀请投资人下载【陈智霖分析师APP】,即时资讯都会在APP内第一时间分享,带你用数据掌握节奏,每周也会更新信用筹码疑虑名单,帮你避开风险、锁定机会。</p>\n\n<p>最新影音(请点影音上方标题至Youtube收视品质会更佳)</p>\n\n<div class=\"youtube-embed-wrapper\" style=\"position:relative;padding-bottom:56.25%;padding-top:30px;height:0;overflow:hidden;\"><iframe allowfullscreen=\"\" frameborder=\"0\" height=\"360\" src=\"//www.youtube.com/embed/ay-YVycHcGc\" style=\"position: absolute;top: 0;left: 0;width: 100%;height: 100%;\" width=\"640\"></iframe></div>\n\n<p><strong>〈立即填表体验咨询陈智霖分析师会员服务</strong><strong>〉</strong><br>\n忠实粉丝请先完成填表申请,每周限时开放体验精选操作名单、盘中到价盘中通知与即时策略更新,面对震荡行情,理性分析与数据判断是关键,立即填表跟上专业:<a href=\"https://lihi.cc/RFzlE\">https://lihi.cc/RFzlE</a></p>\n\n<p>钱进热线 02-2653-8299,立即迈向系统依据的股票操作。</p>\n\n<p>文章来源:陈智霖分析师 / 凯旭投顾</p>\n\n<p class=\"warning\">本公司所推荐分析之个别有价证券<br>\n无不当之财务利益关系 以往之绩效不保证未来获利<br>\n投资人应独立判断 审慎评估并自负投资风险</p><div class=\"related-articles seo-links\">\n  <h4>相关阅读</h4>\n  <ul>\n    <li><a href=\"/new/tw/article-13931.html\" title=\"汉来美食创餐饮市场少见台菜连锁 北上插旗大巨蛋\">汉来美食创餐饮市场少见台菜连锁 北上插旗大巨蛋</a></li>\n    <li><a href=\"/new/tw/article-11302.html\" title=\"宝晶能源*多管齐下 上半年毛利率飙至近5成 每股赚0.69元\">宝晶能源*多管齐下 上半年毛利率飙至近5成 每股赚0.69元</a></li>\n    <li><a href=\"/new/tw/article-1541.html\" title=\"童子贤描绘「未来工厂」整合代理式AI与实体AI 机器人也有「眼耳舌鼻身意」\">童子贤描绘「未来工厂」整合代理式AI与实体AI 机器人也有「眼耳舌鼻身意」</a></li>\n    <li><a href=\"/new/tw/article-408.html\" title=\"依此规律行事 胜率高!\">依此规律行事 胜率高!</a></li>\n    <li><a href=\"/new/tw/article-14522.html\" title=\"营收速报  - 万泰科(6190)8月营收10.62亿元年增率高达71.82%\">营收速报  - 万泰科(6190)8月营收10.62亿元年增率高达71.82%</a></li>\n    <li><a href=\"/new/tw/article-8116.html\" title=\"外资卖超609亿元调节台塑集团股  三大法人力捧纬创3天加码15万张\">外资卖超609亿元调节台塑集团股  三大法人力捧纬创3天加码15万张</a></li>\n  </ul>\n</div>",
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    "createdAt": "2026-08-20T09:07:59.000Z",
    "updatedAt": "2026-09-11T15:20:14.000Z"
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