9月FOMC最关键的是点阵图，升息与否固然重要但只是配角

试想如果9月升息，但点阵图变动不大，真的是利空吗?
9月升不升息的议题，笔者认为市场上的舆论有不少误解与短视的解读，笔者早在今年开市后不久，2月底3月初，算是市场上非常领先就提出降息循环正式结束的观点，并且后续从SOFR利率期货的报价，再度率先喊出「年底前升息」，而随后舆论才开始逐步讨论升息的议题。

从年初至今，对于升息或利率议题，一直都是完整的问题组，完整回答完，才是整合分析。
Q1:年底前/未来12个月升几码? A1:升2码；
Q2:什么时候升息? A2:9/10月 FOMC，一开始是10月，目前转9月；
Q3:第二次升息什么时候? A3: 27年1/3月

所以这隐含一个有趣的现象的，如果「9月升息，但届时点阵图相比于6月并没有明显上移」，非常可能利率市场反而会利多解读，并非9月升息就世界末日，躲过9月就天下太平。重点应该摆在1.FED内部是否仍多数认为会有二次加息，2.通膨数据是否只要没有回落，选项就只有不变/升息。因此点阵图比9月升息与否更重要。9月不升，Q4也会升，基本上只是时间早晚而已。

市场情绪或许浮动，但FED票委一直都有等待数据、中性观望的共识
市场情绪与舆论浮动，但截至9/4Polymarket上交易的9月FOMC利率决策，升息1码与不变仍机率相当。也可以发现有投票权的FOMC委员们发言，共识就是等数据、再看看，既然如此，现阶段讨论9月升息与否其实没太大意义，重点应该是8月CPI的事前事后分析，以及还会再升几码。

本周FOMC官员发言:
◇古尔斯比(芝加哥联储总裁，2027票委；中性偏鸽): 力挺抗通膨，警告经济过热通膨尚未脱离险境
◇威廉姆斯(纽约联储总裁，常任票委；中性偏鹰): 通膨数据令人鼓舞，随着关税造成的一次性价格冲击逐渐消退，通膨正缓慢下降，目前尚无明确证据显示Fed必须再次升息。
◇沃勒(理事，常任票委；中性偏鸽): 只要即将公布的8月通膨数据显示物价压力持续降温，他愿意支持Fed在9月会议维持利率不变

（撰文者：永诚资产管理处分析师范振峰）

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A2:9/10月 FOMC，一", "img": "https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6597467/l/9d627f8033d71a91e7890b165f7ab111.jpg", "content": "试想如果9月升息，但点阵图变动不大，真的是利空吗? \n9月升不升息的议题，笔者认为市场上的舆论有不少误解与短视的解读，笔者早在今年开市后不久，2月底3月初，算是市场上非常领先就提出降息循环正式结束的观点，并且后续从SOFR利率期货的报价，再度率先喊出「年底前升息」，而随后舆论才开始逐步讨论升息的议题。\n<img src=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6597467/l/9d627f8033d71a91e7890b165f7ab111.jpg\" alt=\"9月FOMC最关键的是点阵图，升息与否固然重要但只是配角\" style=\"width:50%;height:auto;border-radius:6px;margin:15px auto;display:block;\">\n\n\n从年初至今，对于升息或利率议题，一直都是完整的问题组，完整回答完，才是整合分析。 \nQ1:年底前/未来12个月升几码? A1:升2码； \nQ2:什么时候升息? A2:9/10月 FOMC，一开始是10月，目前转9月； \nQ3:第二次升息什么时候? A3: 27年1/3月\n\n所以这隐含一个有趣的现象的，如果「9月升息，但届时点阵图相比于6月并没有明显上移」，非常可能利率市场反而会利多解读，并非9月升息就世界末日，躲过9月就天下太平。重点应该摆在1.FED内部是否仍多数认为会有二次加息，2.通膨数据是否只要没有回落，选项就只有不变/升息。因此点阵图比9月升息与否更重要。9月不升，Q4也会升，基本上只是时间早晚而已。\n\n市场情绪或许浮动，但FED票委一直都有等待数据、中性观望的共识 \n市场情绪与舆论浮动，但截至9/4Polymarket上交易的9月FOMC利率决策，升息1码与不变仍机率相当。也可以发现有投票权的FOMC委员们发言，共识就是等数据、再看看，既然如此，现阶段讨论9月升息与否其实没太大意义，重点应该是8月CPI的事前事后分析，以及还会再升几码。\n\n<figure><img data-height=\"232\" data-mime=\"image/png\" data-ratio=\"3.2758620689655173\" data-src-m=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6597467/m/22632e246df46b3f99467de1c0188ca7.jpg\" data-width=\"760\" src=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6597467/l/22632e246df46b3f99467de1c0188ca7.jpg\" srcset=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6597467/l/22632e246df46b3f99467de1c0188ca7.jpg 1x,https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6597467/xl/22632e246df46b3f99467de1c0188ca7.jpg 2x,https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6597467/xxl/22632e246df46b3f99467de1c0188ca7.jpg 3x\"></figure>\n\n本周FOMC官员发言: \n◇古尔斯比(芝加哥联储总裁，2027票委；中性偏鸽): 力挺抗通膨，警告经济过热通膨尚未脱离险境 \n◇威廉姆斯(纽约联储总裁，常任票委；中性偏鹰): 通膨数据令人鼓舞，随着关税造成的一次性价格冲击逐渐消退，通膨正缓慢下降，目前尚无明确证据显示Fed必须再次升息。 \n◇沃勒(理事，常任票委；中性偏鸽): 只要即将公布的8月通膨数据显示物价压力持续降温，他愿意支持Fed在9月会议维持利率不变\n\n（撰文者：永诚资产管理处分析师范振峰）\n\n点击下图【60 秒测试你的理财天赋有几分？】\n\n \n\n<a href=\"https://quiz.big-econ.com/index.php?&QID=6\"><img data-height=\"174\" data-ratio=\"4.011494252873563\" data-src-m=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6597467/m/2cd64e1c6906eb5ec735a91e0d867735.jpg\" data-width=\"698\" src=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6597467/l/2cd64e1c6906eb5ec735a91e0d867735.jpg\"></a>\n\n「永诚资产管理处」是全台合法拥有金管字号的证券投资顾问公司中「唯一首创资产管理的部门」，20 年深耕专营台湾各大科技园区，以认真、诚信思维提供客户服务，让努力累积财富的你，也可贴身感受理财管家的 VIP 价值。\n\n没有代理金融商品，不以商品销售出发，减少你的财务漏洞！从资产配置出发，透过「专案客制化」、「服务精致化」、「获利系统化」，你不需牺牲时间体力，就能感受到资产提升！\n\n「卓越投资研究团队」加「顶尖财务顾问团队」共同与客户缔造里程碑 \n立即加入 <a href=\"https://line.me/R/ti/p/%40asset88598\">https://line.me/R/ti/p/%40asset88598</a> \n进一步了解资产管理处 <a href=\"https://www.ycam.com.tw/\">https://www.ycam.com.tw/</a> \n收听「资产汇谈」Podcast <a href=\"https://reurl.cc/nYeRQ8\">https://reurl.cc/nYeRQ8</a>\n\n本公司所推荐分析之个别有价证券 \n无不当之财务利益关系以往之绩效不保证未来获利 \n投资人应独立判断审慎评估并自负投资风险<div class=\"related-articles seo-links\">\n <h4>相关阅读</h4>\n <ul>\n <li><a href=\"/new/tw/article-8140.html\" title=\"〈稳懋法说〉PD量产挹注Q3营收看好光通讯产品2027年占比挑战双位数\">〈稳懋法说〉PD量产挹注Q3营收看好光通讯产品2027年占比挑战双位数</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/new/tw/article-4844.html\" title=\"台股守稳46400「以盘代跌」！轮动速度快到疯掉，台积法说倒数由谁领军？\">台股守稳46400「以盘代跌」！轮动速度快到疯掉，台积法说倒数由谁领军？</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/new/tw/article-6702.html\" title=\"联发国际喜迎茶饮旺季营收将逐月增将开出马国知名肉骨茶品牌\">联发国际喜迎茶饮旺季营收将逐月增将开出马国知名肉骨茶品牌</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/new/tw/article-8272.html\" title=\"台股震荡越跌越买！十大人气ETF受益人数逆势狂飙这档月增363%居冠\">台股震荡越跌越买！十大人气ETF受益人数逆势狂飙这档月增363%居冠</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/new/tw/article-4933.html\" title=\"信邦Q3营收估续创单季新高人形机器人专案迈入试量产\">信邦Q3营收估续创单季新高人形机器人专案迈入试量产</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/new/tw/article-11077.html\" title=\"营收速报 - 2026年8月13日台股中小型公司7月营收一览（新增1646家）\">营收速报 - 2026年8月13日台股中小型公司7月营收一览（新增1646家）</a></li>\n </ul>\n</div>", "status": 0, "pv": 61, "link": "https://news.cnyes.com/news/id/6597467", "createdAt": "2026-09-04T08:14:12.000Z", "updatedAt": "2026-10-26T19:29:15.000Z" }, "position": [ { "id": 15, "pid": 0, "name": "热点新闻", "pinyin": "new", "path": "/new", "orderBy": 0, "target": "0", "status": "0", "listView": "list.html", "articleView": "article.html", "seoTitle": "", "seoKeywords": "", "seoDescription": "", "type": "0", "dataConfig": null, "children": [ { "id": 25, "pid": 15, "name": "美股", "pinyin": "mg", "path": "/new/mg", "orderBy": 0, "target": "0", "status": "0", "listView": "list.html", "articleView": "article.html", "seoTitle": "", "seoKeywords": "", "seoDescription": "", "type": "0", "dataConfig": null, "level": 1 }, { "id": 26, "pid": 15, "name": "港股", "pinyin": "hk", "path": "/new/hk", "orderBy": 0, "target": "0", "status": "0", "listView": "list.html", "articleView": "article.html", "seoTitle": "", "seoKeywords": "", "seoDescription": "", "type": "0", "dataConfig": null, "level": 1 }, { "id": 27, "pid": 15, "name": "台股", "pinyin": "tw", "path": "/new/tw", "orderBy": 0, "target": "0", "status": "0", "listView": "list.html", "articleView": "article.html", "seoTitle": "", "seoKeywords": "", "seoDescription": "", "type": "0", "dataConfig": null, "level": 1 }, { "id": 28, "pid": 15, "name": "科技", "pinyin": "AI", "path": "/new/AI", "orderBy": 0, "target": "0", "status": "0", "listView": "list.html", "articleView": "article.html", "seoTitle": "", "seoKeywords": "", "seoDescription": "", "type": "0", "dataConfig": null, "level": 1 } ], "level": 1 }, { "id": 27, "pid": 15, "name": "台股", "pinyin": "tw", "path": "/new/tw", "orderBy": 0, "target": "0", "status": "0", "listView": "list.html", "articleView": "article.html", "seoTitle": "", "seoKeywords": "", "seoDescription": "", "type": "0", "dataConfig": null, "level": 1 } ], "_locals": {}, "cache": false }

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