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别怕债券殖利率创高!GDP没衰退都是假利空,2027年供应链缺口扩大商机!?

2026-09-15 22:36:21 网络 阅读(7)

联准会升息如果升息,美股会转空吗?

别怕债券殖利率创高!GDP没衰退都是假利空,2027年供应链缺口扩大商机!?

全球资产定价的基准为美国十年期国债殖利率,殖利率走升必然会对金融资产估值造成影响,但并不代表美股走空,实际上美国进入升息周期时,往往是因为经济强劲推升通膨,导致联准会升息。

当然近期市场升息预期出现,部分原因来自于中东地缘政治因素,导致原油波动引发通膨担忧,但也很大一部分在于AI产业的资金需求,根据彭博(Bloomberg)统计美国9月投资等级公债预估发行2,150亿美元,前9个月合计约1.9兆美元,仅次于2024年全年约2兆美元,换句话说,今年绝对会创历史新高,且AI产业链取代过往能源与金融的发债主力。美国政府与私人企业发债规模增加,市场资金自然会要求更高的投资报酬率,进而推升债券殖利率走高。

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美国企业为何愿意在殖利率相对高的位置积极发债?

自然是因为企业获利更快,标普500指数成分股于今年Q2有86%获利超过预期,创2021年以来新高。通讯服务业务的获利预期年增51%,几乎是第二季初预测的26%的两倍。9/14『美债殖利率创高!崩盘前奏?微软、辉达认证的AI获利新模式,受惠产业名单!』提到,微软财务长艾美.胡德表示只要"只要资本报酬率(ROIC)足够高,会灵活运用债务融资来支持扩张。"因此,今年美国AI供应积极发债的主因,自然是看好未来的资本报酬率,而企业获利快速成长,将是美股未来走升的重要动能。

上周五戴尔(DELL-US)股价创新高,除了业绩好于市场预期以外,于2026年高盛Communacopia+科技大会(9/8-9/11)上表示,过去一年获得的订单价值1,300亿美元,目前瓶颈在于交付伺服器的速度,而不是客户需求。目前AI Factory 客户高达6,500家,因采用AI的客户已经开始正视使用AI产生的资本报酬率,并且希望资料储存在自家的伺服器内,预期2027年AI零组件的供应缺口会扩大。

辉达执行长黄仁勋同样在高盛会上表示,因辉达的快速成长,整个AI上下游供应链从先进制造、先进封装、记忆体、零组件、电力、土地等,都面临挑战。

2027年整体AI上下游供应链缺口持续扩大,台厂作为重要的供应链成员,自然最为受惠,但加权指数受到美债殖利率走升影响,出现连三跌,昨日并出现回测季线走势,市场风险担忧而下跌,提供投资朋友低接与换股的机会。

不用过度担忧联准会9月是否升息,不管是美股或者台股都已经提前反应,即使升息也只是利空出尽,那如果没升息呢?况且真正导致股市转空的是GDP与企业获利衰退,但目前并未出现此迹象,强势股会领先止跌,投资朋友可留意昨日(9/14)抗跌的AI绩优股。

美股十月开始回暖,将带动台股行情,中秋节前最好的买进机会。但市场震荡不敢买?让我帮助你,加入我的行列,可先加入https://user225916.pse.is/money668并私讯【金融家】

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ASIC:创意(3443-TW)、联发科(2454-TW)、日月光(3711-TW)、京元电(2449-TW)

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文章来源:摩尔投顾-叶俊敏分析师

本公司所推荐分析之个别有价证券 无不当之财务利益关系 以往之绩效不保证未来获利 投资人应独立判断 审慎评估并自负投资风险

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    "content": "<p><strong>联准会升息如果升息,美股会转空吗?</strong></p>\n<p style=\"text-align:center;\"><img src=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6605677/l/cdb65e89338f0b106bf835d018e18203.jpg\" alt=\"别怕债券殖利率创高!GDP没衰退都是假利空,2027年供应链缺口扩大商机!?\" style=\"width:50%;height:auto;border-radius:6px;margin:15px auto;display:block;\"></p>\n\n\n<p><strong>全球资产定价的基准为美国十年期国债殖利率,殖利率走升必然会对金融资产估值造成影响,但并不代表美股走空,实际上美国进入升息周期时,往往是因为经济强劲推升通膨,导致联准会升息。</strong></p>\n\n<p><strong>当然近期市场升息预期出现,部分原因来自于中东地缘政治因素,导致原油波动引发通膨担忧,但也很大一部分在于AI产业的资金需求,根据彭博(Bloomberg)统计美国9月投资等级公债预估发行2,150亿美元,前9个月合计约1.9兆美元,仅次于2024年全年约2兆美元,换句话说,今年绝对会创历史新高,且AI产业链取代过往能源与金融的发债主力。美国政府与私人企业发债规模增加,市场资金自然会要求更高的投资报酬率,进而推升债券殖利率走高。</strong></p>\n\n<p><strong>更多的投资策略与选股资讯都在-<br>\nLINE@</strong> <a href=\"https://user225916.pse.is/money668\"><strong>https://user225916.pse.is/money668</strong></a><br>\n<strong>频道连结</strong><a href=\"https://www.youtube.com/@money66868\"><strong>https://www.youtube.com/@money66868</strong></a></p>\n\n<p><strong>美国企业为何愿意在殖利率相对高的位置积极发债?</strong></p>\n\n<p><strong>自然是因为企业获利更快,标普500指数成分股于今年Q2有86%获利超过预期,创2021年以来新高。</strong><strong>通讯服务业务的获利预期年增51%,几乎是第二季初预测的26%的两</strong><strong>倍。9/14『美债殖利率创高!崩盘前奏?微软、辉达认证的AI获利新模式,受惠产业名单!』提到,微软财务长艾美.胡德表示只要"只要资本报酬率(ROIC)足够高,会灵活运用债务融资来支持扩张。"因此,今年美国AI供应积极发债的主因,自然是看好未来的资本报酬率,而企业获利快速成长,将是美股未来走升的重要动能。</strong></p>\n\n<p><strong>上周五戴尔(DELL-US)股价创新高,除了业绩好于市场预期以外,于2026年高盛Communacopia+科技大会(9/8-9/11)上表示,过去一年获得的订单价值1,300亿美元,目前瓶颈在于交付伺服器的速度,而不是客户需求。目前AI Factory 客户高达6,500家,因采用AI的客户已经开始正视使用AI产生的资本报酬率,并且希望资料储存在自家的伺服器内,预期2027年AI零组件的供应缺口会扩大。</strong></p>\n\n<p><strong>辉达执行长黄仁勋同样在高盛会上表示,因辉达的快速成长,整个AI上下游供应链从先进制造、先进封装、记忆体、零组件、电力、土地等,都面临挑战。</strong></p>\n\n<p><strong>2027</strong><strong>年整体AI上下游供应链缺口持续扩大,台厂作为重要的供应链成员,自然最为受惠,但加权指数受到美债殖利率走升影响,出现连三跌,昨日并出现回测季线走势,市场风险担忧而下跌,提供投资朋友低接与换股的机会。</strong></p>\n\n<p><strong>不用过度担忧联准会9月是否升息,不管是美股或者台股都已经提前反应,即使升息也只是利空出尽,那如果没升息呢?况且真正导致股市转空的是GDP与企业获利衰退,但目前并未出现此迹象,强势股会领先止跌,投资朋友可留意昨日(9/14)抗跌的AI绩优股。</strong></p>\n\n<p><strong>美股十月开始回暖,将带动台股行情,中秋节前最好的买进机会。但市场震荡不敢买?让我帮助你,加入我的行列,可先加入</strong><a href=\"https://user225916.pse.is/money668\"><strong>https://user225916.pse.is/money668</strong></a><strong>并私讯【金融家】</strong></p>\n\n<p><strong>抗跌AI供应链如下:</strong></p>\n\n<p><strong>ASIC</strong><strong>:创意(3443-TW)、联发科(2454-TW)、日月光(3711-TW)、京元电(2449-TW)</strong></p>\n\n<p><strong>PCB</strong><strong>:欣兴(3037-TW)、臻鼎-KY(4958-TW)、台光电(2383-TW)、联茂(6213-TW)、台燿(6274-TW)</strong></p>\n\n<p><strong>AI</strong><strong>:奇𬭎(3017-TW)、健策(3653-TW)、鸿海(2317-TW)、光宝科(2301-TW)、顺德(2351-TW)、颀邦(6147-TW)</strong></p>\n\n<p><strong>更多产业趋势预告+盘中讯息&rarr;<br>\n都在叶老师的 Line @:<br>\nLINE@ID:@money668 (@要记得加)</strong></p>\n\n<p><a href=\"https://user225916.pse.is/money668\"><strong>https://user225916.pse.is/money668</strong></a><strong> </strong><br>\n<strong>加入之后可以留言《巨亨网》让我知道你从哪里认识我的,有优惠活动或赠品会优先通知喔!</strong></p>\n\n<p><strong>文章来源:摩尔投顾-叶俊敏分析师</strong></p>\n\n<p class=\"warning\"><strong>本公司所推荐分析之个别有价证券 无不当之财务利益关系 以往之绩效不保证未来获利 投资人应独立判断 审慎评估并自负投资风险</strong></p>\n<div class=\"related-articles seo-links\">\n  <h4>相关阅读</h4>\n  <ul>\n    <li><a href=\"/new/tw/article-6007.html\" title=\"和椿Q2、H1营收齐创同期新高 受惠半导体需求旺盛订单持续加温\">和椿Q2、H1营收齐创同期新高 受惠半导体需求旺盛订单持续加温</a></li>\n    <li><a href=\"/new/tw/article-5485.html\" title=\"〈国票金法说〉公股入主后首秀!总座吴瑛揭四大策略 下半年债券操作「戒慎恐惧」\">〈国票金法说〉公股入主后首秀!总座吴瑛揭四大策略 下半年债券操作「戒慎恐惧」</a></li>\n    <li><a href=\"/new/tw/article-11197.html\" title=\"宝成上半年税后纯益69.83亿元每股赚2.37元\">宝成上半年税后纯益69.83亿元每股赚2.37元</a></li>\n    <li><a href=\"/new/tw/article-5841.html\" title=\"〈焦点股〉日本半导体族群逆势突围 00954、00951盘中强弹近4%\">〈焦点股〉日本半导体族群逆势突围 00954、00951盘中强弹近4%</a></li>\n    <li><a href=\"/new/tw/article-6786.html\" title=\"〈台币〉量缩小贬观望 收32.189元贬值1.7分\">〈台币〉量缩小贬观望 收32.189元贬值1.7分</a></li>\n    <li><a href=\"/new/tw/article-2324.html\" title=\"盘中速报 - 柜买市场加权指数上涨11.52点至444.86点,涨幅2.66%\">盘中速报 - 柜买市场加权指数上涨11.52点至444.86点,涨幅2.66%</a></li>\n  </ul>\n</div>",
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    "createdAt": "2026-09-15T00:30:46.000Z",
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