别怕债券殖利率创高！GDP没衰退都是假利空，2027年供应链缺口扩大商机！？

联准会升息如果升息，美股会转空吗？

全球资产定价的基准为美国十年期国债殖利率，殖利率走升必然会对金融资产估值造成影响，但并不代表美股走空，实际上美国进入升息周期时，往往是因为经济强劲推升通膨，导致联准会升息。

当然近期市场升息预期出现，部分原因来自于中东地缘政治因素，导致原油波动引发通膨担忧，但也很大一部分在于AI产业的资金需求，根据彭博（Bloomberg）统计美国9月投资等级公债预估发行2,150亿美元，前9个月合计约1.9兆美元，仅次于2024年全年约2兆美元，换句话说，今年绝对会创历史新高，且AI产业链取代过往能源与金融的发债主力。美国政府与私人企业发债规模增加，市场资金自然会要求更高的投资报酬率，进而推升债券殖利率走高。

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美国企业为何愿意在殖利率相对高的位置积极发债？

自然是因为企业获利更快，标普500指数成分股于今年Q2有86%获利超过预期，创2021年以来新高。通讯服务业务的获利预期年增51%，几乎是第二季初预测的26%的两倍。9/14『美债殖利率创高！崩盘前奏？微软、辉达认证的AI获利新模式，受惠产业名单！』提到，微软财务长艾美．胡德表示只要＂只要资本报酬率（ROIC）足够高，会灵活运用债务融资来支持扩张。＂因此，今年美国AI供应积极发债的主因，自然是看好未来的资本报酬率，而企业获利快速成长，将是美股未来走升的重要动能。

上周五戴尔(DELL-US)股价创新高，除了业绩好于市场预期以外，于2026年高盛Communacopia+科技大会(9/8-9/11)上表示，过去一年获得的订单价值1,300亿美元，目前瓶颈在于交付伺服器的速度，而不是客户需求。目前AI Factory 客户高达6,500家，因采用AI的客户已经开始正视使用AI产生的资本报酬率，并且希望资料储存在自家的伺服器内，预期2027年AI零组件的供应缺口会扩大。

辉达执行长黄仁勋同样在高盛会上表示，因辉达的快速成长，整个AI上下游供应链从先进制造、先进封装、记忆体、零组件、电力、土地等，都面临挑战。

2027年整体AI上下游供应链缺口持续扩大，台厂作为重要的供应链成员，自然最为受惠，但加权指数受到美债殖利率走升影响，出现连三跌，昨日并出现回测季线走势，市场风险担忧而下跌，提供投资朋友低接与换股的机会。

不用过度担忧联准会9月是否升息，不管是美股或者台股都已经提前反应，即使升息也只是利空出尽，那如果没升息呢？况且真正导致股市转空的是GDP与企业获利衰退，但目前并未出现此迹象，强势股会领先止跌，投资朋友可留意昨日(9/14)抗跌的AI绩优股。

美股十月开始回暖，将带动台股行情，中秋节前最好的买进机会。但市场震荡不敢买？让我帮助你，加入我的行列，可先加入https://user225916.pse.is/money668并私讯【金融家】

抗跌AI供应链如下：

ASIC：创意(3443-TW)、联发科(2454-TW)、日月光(3711-TW)、京元电(2449-TW)

PCB：欣兴(3037-TW)、臻鼎-KY(4958-TW)、台光电(2383-TW)、联茂(6213-TW)、台燿(6274-TW)

AI：奇𬭎(3017-TW)、健策(3653-TW)、鸿海(2317-TW)、光宝科(2301-TW)、顺德(2351-TW)、颀邦(6147-TW)

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文章来源：摩尔投顾－叶俊敏分析师

本公司所推荐分析之个别有价证券无不当之财务利益关系以往之绩效不保证未来获利投资人应独立判断审慎评估并自负投资风险

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