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【精测法说会 AI 摘要】2026/10/28

2026-10-28 20:44:01 网络 阅读(3)

一、 2026 年第三季财务与营运详情

【精测法说会 AI 摘要】2026/10/28

财务表现:
• 营收与获利创历史新高: 2026 年第三季合并营收突破 19 亿元,年增(YoY)53.4%、季增(QoQ)16.2%。受全厂设备高稼动率与良好产品组合带动,单季每股盈余(EPS)达到 NT$ 16.75 元(年增 100% 同步翻倍创历史新高),单季获利达 5.51 亿元,已连续三个季度单季获利突破一个股本。
• 毛利率与营业利益率:

毛利率维持在 57.3% 高档水准(微幅调整主因新产品开始认列),连续多季守在 56%~57% 以上。

营业费用率(OpEx Ratio)随营收规模大幅稀释降至 22%(较去年同期的 32% 显著下降 10 个百分点),研发费用仍占最大宗;营业利益率(Operating Margin)季增 0.5 个百分点。
• 自由现金流与资本支出(CapEx):

第三季营运活动现金流入为 1.63 亿元,资本支出为 1.67 亿元,自由现金流(FCF)微幅流出约 400 万元,主因新产品开发部分半成品堆积、客户指定客供料短暂延迟所致,预期后续将逐步优化。

期末现金及约当现金为 69 亿元(8 月发放现金股利 5.02 亿元,每股配息 15.3 元)。资金规划包含:三厂新建工程款 >25 亿元、三厂设备约 10 亿元、今年 CapEx 设备与修缮工程调升至 5 亿元(含龙潭租赁厂),以及研发与营运资金。

产品组合与应用结构(2026Q3):
• 产品类别占比: 晶圆测试卡(Probe Card)占前三季累计达 71%,测试板(Load Board)占 21%。第三季探针卡绝对值营收成长至近 4 亿元,惟 IC 测试板因 GPU、ASIC 及 TPU 之 Burn-in Board(老化测试板)与系统测试板(SLT Board)开始出货,带动测试板比重提升。
• 应用别翻转(HPC 跃居最大主力):

高效能运算(HPC):营收占比自 2025Q3 的 31.2% 暴增至 2026Q3 的 65.9%(YoY 大增 116%),涵盖 GPU、TPU、AI ASIC、HPC Switch 与车用 AI 晶片。

探针卡应用结构历史性反转:过去以行动应用(AP)为主的探针卡,本季首度由 HPC 探针卡跃居第一(占 44.9%),AP 降至 21.5%;前三季累计 HPC 探针卡达 35%,正式超越 AP 的 32%。

射频(RF)领域:除既有美系晶片大厂外,新增低轨卫星(太空用 RF)客户探针卡,由日本合作伙伴提供 Socket/Pogo Pin、精测供应测试板。

市场趋势与营运展望:
• 全球半导体与 HPC 爆发: 全球半导体市场规模 2026 年预估达 1.65 兆美元(YoY +108%),2027 年将突破 2 兆美元。AI 成为产业火车头,美国一线 IC 设计大厂反馈普遍为「产能不足」而非需求疑虑。
• MEMS 探针卡大趋势: 随着晶圆测试迈向大电流、高速与散热挑战,MEMS 探针卡市占预计于 2027 年达 71%、2028 年达 75%。
• 产能扩充路径: 以 2025Q4 产能为基准(定为 1),2026 年 8 月已倍增至 2,2027 年第一季将扩充至 3。三厂规模将远大于现有租赁厂,完工后龙潭二厂将不续租。
• 2027 全年展望: 管理层预期 2027 全年营收将持续维持接近 50% 的高成长速度,且获利(EPS)增长幅度可望再优于营收增速。探针卡营收占比目标朝 30% 挑战。

二、 法说会问答完整清单 (Q&A)

Q1:手握数个大型专案的量产时程?美国电动车大厂 AI 晶片验证进度? (业务处长 朱育贤)
回答: 目前手上有三个主要大型专案:

美国电动车大厂(AI5 专案):因客户晶圆改版,目前正进行第二版探针卡工程验证,本季已有认列部分工程板。

美系 CSP 云端业者 TPU 探针卡:预计 11 月正式出货工程验证,量产时程预计落在 2027 年。

Q2:市场传出 TPU 封装良率问题致量产递延,是否影响出货?下一代 TPU 参与状况? (业务处长 朱育贤)
回答:

工程验证(NPI)端未受影响,工程测试板照常于 2027Q1 出货。现行代次之 SLT 测试板(出货至 10~11 月)与 High Power Burn-in Board 依进度出货中,营收将认列于 2026Q4 至 2027Q1。

下一代 TPU 专案(如 5922 系列):精测目前已参与 FT(最终测试)阶段,为独家供应商,正进行设计并预计于 2027Q1 出货;SLTB 与 BIB 则持续积极争取中。

Q3:公司在 CPO(共同封装光学)测试介面的布局进展? (业务处长 朱育贤)
回答: 精测与超过五家以上厂商合作,涵盖 Insertion 1、2、3 全流程测试介面,其中以 Insertion 2 与 3 对测试板需求最为显著。

Q4:扩产时程与自制 MEMS 探针产能规划? (业务处长 朱育贤)
回答: 产能扩充依原定步调进行(2025Q4 基准为 1,2026 年 8 月已达 2,2027Q1 达到 3)。目前 MEMS 针月产能至少达 100 万 pin,且全数为厂内 100% 自制;董事会已通过自欧洲采购高精度曝光设备,以因应未来 AI ASIC 挑战 400 Gbps 以上的高速测试需求。

Q5:High Power Burn-in 与晶圆级老化测试(Wafer-level Burn-in)布局? (业务处长 朱育贤)
回答: 随着 AI ASIC 发热与功率激增,High Power Burn-in 需求日益关键,客户涵盖北美、韩国等跨国大厂。近期亦有国外客户前来接洽 Wafer-level Burn-in 新规格,研发团队正积极评估规格与接单可行性。

Q6:第四季毛利率区间与营业费用率(OpEx)指引? (财务长 许忆萍)
回答:

毛利率:第四季长期目标区间仍维持在 50%~55%。Burn-in Board 初期毛利率虽低于公司平均,但随制程良率稳定与经济规模放大,整体获利与 EPS 将持续推升。

费用率:建议全年度费用率以 20%~25% 为基准指引,主要投入于下一世代 AI ASIC 探针卡、Load Board 及高速大电流测试研发。

折旧:2026 全年折旧费用建议以 4.1 亿元预估。

Q7:存货水位与自由现金流(FCF)转负的后续改善趋势? (财务长 许忆萍)
回答: 第三季因新产品导入(NPI)初期与新客户磨合,部分指定客供料短暂延迟致使存货增加,并影响现金流入。随着 9 月已启动出货,该项影响将逐步消除,2027 年存货天数与自由现金流将迎来有效优化。

Q8:各产品线毛利率排序为何? (业务处长 朱育贤)
回答: 毛利率排序为:探针卡(Probe Card) > Load Board > SLTB 与 Burn-in Board(后两者目前低于公司平均毛利率 50%)。

Q9:2027 年第一季营收能否维持季增? (业务处长 朱育贤)
回答: 依目前滚动式预估(Rolling forecast),2027Q1 营收预期约落在 2026Q3 至 Q4 的高档水准区间,具体成长趋势将视后续滚动调整而定。

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    "description": "一、 2026 年第三季财务与营运详情 财务表现: • 营收与获利创历史新高: 2026 年第三季合并营收突破 19 亿元,年增(YoY)53.4%、季增(QoQ)16.2%。受全厂设备高稼动率与良好产品组合带动,单季每股盈余(EPS)达到 NT$ 16.75 元(年增 100% 同步翻倍创历史新高),单季获利达 5.51 亿元,已连续三个季度单季获利突破一个股本。 • 毛利率与营业利益率: 毛利率维持在 57.3% 高档水准(微幅调整主因新产品开始认列),连续多季守在 56",
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    "content": "<p>一、 2026 年第三季财务与营运详情</p>\n<p style=\"text-align:center;\"><img src=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6639663/l/003bb5c098fe150ed20d74f955d8e258.jpg\" alt=\"【精测法说会 AI 摘要】2026/10/28\" style=\"width:50%;height:auto;border-radius:6px;margin:15px auto;display:block;\"></p>\n\n\n<p>财务表现:<br>\n&bull; 营收与获利创历史新高: 2026 年第三季合并营收突破 19 亿元,年增(YoY)53.4%、季增(QoQ)16.2%。受全厂设备高稼动率与良好产品组合带动,单季每股盈余(EPS)达到 NT$ 16.75 元(年增 100% 同步翻倍创历史新高),单季获利达 5.51 亿元,已连续三个季度单季获利突破一个股本。<br>\n&bull; 毛利率与营业利益率:</p>\n\n<p>毛利率维持在 57.3% 高档水准(微幅调整主因新产品开始认列),连续多季守在 56%~57% 以上。</p>\n\n<p>营业费用率(OpEx Ratio)随营收规模大幅稀释降至 22%(较去年同期的 32% 显著下降 10 个百分点),研发费用仍占最大宗;营业利益率(Operating Margin)季增 0.5 个百分点。<br>\n&bull; 自由现金流与资本支出(CapEx):</p>\n\n<p>第三季营运活动现金流入为 1.63 亿元,资本支出为 1.67 亿元,自由现金流(FCF)微幅流出约 400 万元,主因新产品开发部分半成品堆积、客户指定客供料短暂延迟所致,预期后续将逐步优化。</p>\n\n<p>期末现金及约当现金为 69 亿元(8 月发放现金股利 5.02 亿元,每股配息 15.3 元)。资金规划包含:三厂新建工程款 >25 亿元、三厂设备约 10 亿元、今年 CapEx 设备与修缮工程调升至 5 亿元(含龙潭租赁厂),以及研发与营运资金。</p>\n\n<p>产品组合与应用结构(2026Q3):<br>\n&bull; 产品类别占比: 晶圆测试卡(Probe Card)占前三季累计达 71%,测试板(Load Board)占 21%。第三季探针卡绝对值营收成长至近 4 亿元,惟 IC 测试板因 GPU、ASIC 及 TPU 之 Burn-in Board(老化测试板)与系统测试板(SLT Board)开始出货,带动测试板比重提升。<br>\n&bull; 应用别翻转(HPC 跃居最大主力):</p>\n\n<p>高效能运算(HPC):营收占比自 2025Q3 的 31.2% 暴增至 2026Q3 的 65.9%(YoY 大增 116%),涵盖 GPU、TPU、AI ASIC、HPC Switch 与车用 AI 晶片。</p>\n\n<p>探针卡应用结构历史性反转:过去以行动应用(AP)为主的探针卡,本季首度由 HPC 探针卡跃居第一(占 44.9%),AP 降至 21.5%;前三季累计 HPC 探针卡达 35%,正式超越 AP 的 32%。</p>\n\n<p>射频(RF)领域:除既有美系晶片大厂外,新增低轨卫星(太空用 RF)客户探针卡,由日本合作伙伴提供 Socket/Pogo Pin、精测供应测试板。</p>\n\n<p>市场趋势与营运展望:<br>\n&bull; 全球半导体与 HPC 爆发: 全球半导体市场规模 2026 年预估达 1.65 兆美元(YoY +108%),2027 年将突破 2 兆美元。AI 成为产业火车头,美国一线 IC 设计大厂反馈普遍为「产能不足」而非需求疑虑。<br>\n&bull; MEMS 探针卡大趋势: 随着晶圆测试迈向大电流、高速与散热挑战,MEMS 探针卡市占预计于 2027 年达 71%、2028 年达 75%。<br>\n&bull; 产能扩充路径: 以 2025Q4 产能为基准(定为 1),2026 年 8 月已倍增至 2,2027 年第一季将扩充至 3。三厂规模将远大于现有租赁厂,完工后龙潭二厂将不续租。<br>\n&bull; 2027 全年展望: 管理层预期 2027 全年营收将持续维持接近 50% 的高成长速度,且获利(EPS)增长幅度可望再优于营收增速。探针卡营收占比目标朝 30% 挑战。</p>\n\n<p>二、 法说会问答完整清单 (Q&A)</p>\n\n<p>Q1:手握数个大型专案的量产时程?美国电动车大厂 AI 晶片验证进度? (业务处长 朱育贤)<br>\n回答: 目前手上有三个主要大型专案:</p>\n\n<p>美国电动车大厂(AI5 专案):因客户晶圆改版,目前正进行第二版探针卡工程验证,本季已有认列部分工程板。</p>\n\n<p>美系 CSP 云端业者 TPU 探针卡:预计 11 月正式出货工程验证,量产时程预计落在 2027 年。</p>\n\n<p>Q2:市场传出 TPU 封装良率问题致量产递延,是否影响出货?下一代 TPU 参与状况? (业务处长 朱育贤)<br>\n回答:</p>\n\n<p>工程验证(NPI)端未受影响,工程测试板照常于 2027Q1 出货。现行代次之 SLT 测试板(出货至 10~11 月)与 High Power Burn-in Board 依进度出货中,营收将认列于 2026Q4 至 2027Q1。</p>\n\n<p>下一代 TPU 专案(如 5922 系列):精测目前已参与 FT(最终测试)阶段,为独家供应商,正进行设计并预计于 2027Q1 出货;SLTB 与 BIB 则持续积极争取中。</p>\n\n<p>Q3:公司在 CPO(共同封装光学)测试介面的布局进展? (业务处长 朱育贤)<br>\n回答: 精测与超过五家以上厂商合作,涵盖 Insertion 1、2、3 全流程测试介面,其中以 Insertion 2 与 3 对测试板需求最为显著。</p>\n\n<p>Q4:扩产时程与自制 MEMS 探针产能规划? (业务处长 朱育贤)<br>\n回答: 产能扩充依原定步调进行(2025Q4 基准为 1,2026 年 8 月已达 2,2027Q1 达到 3)。目前 MEMS 针月产能至少达 100 万 pin,且全数为厂内 100% 自制;董事会已通过自欧洲采购高精度曝光设备,以因应未来 AI ASIC 挑战 400 Gbps 以上的高速测试需求。</p>\n\n<p>Q5:High Power Burn-in 与晶圆级老化测试(Wafer-level Burn-in)布局? (业务处长 朱育贤)<br>\n回答: 随着 AI ASIC 发热与功率激增,High Power Burn-in 需求日益关键,客户涵盖北美、韩国等跨国大厂。近期亦有国外客户前来接洽 Wafer-level Burn-in 新规格,研发团队正积极评估规格与接单可行性。</p>\n\n<p>Q6:第四季毛利率区间与营业费用率(OpEx)指引? (财务长 许忆萍)<br>\n回答:</p>\n\n<p>毛利率:第四季长期目标区间仍维持在 50%~55%。Burn-in Board 初期毛利率虽低于公司平均,但随制程良率稳定与经济规模放大,整体获利与 EPS 将持续推升。</p>\n\n<p>费用率:建议全年度费用率以 20%~25% 为基准指引,主要投入于下一世代 AI ASIC 探针卡、Load Board 及高速大电流测试研发。</p>\n\n<p>折旧:2026 全年折旧费用建议以 4.1 亿元预估。</p>\n\n<p>Q7:存货水位与自由现金流(FCF)转负的后续改善趋势? (财务长 许忆萍)<br>\n回答: 第三季因新产品导入(NPI)初期与新客户磨合,部分指定客供料短暂延迟致使存货增加,并影响现金流入。随着 9 月已启动出货,该项影响将逐步消除,2027 年存货天数与自由现金流将迎来有效优化。</p>\n\n<p>Q8:各产品线毛利率排序为何? (业务处长 朱育贤)<br>\n回答: 毛利率排序为:探针卡(Probe Card) > Load Board > SLTB 与 Burn-in Board(后两者目前低于公司平均毛利率 50%)。</p>\n\n<p>Q9:2027 年第一季营收能否维持季增? (业务处长 朱育贤)<br>\n回答: 依目前滚动式预估(Rolling forecast),2027Q1 营收预期约落在 2026Q3 至 Q4 的高档水准区间,具体成长趋势将视后续滚动调整而定。</p><div class=\"related-articles seo-links\">\n  <h4>相关阅读</h4>\n  <ul>\n    <li><a href=\"/new/tw/article-10157.html\" title=\"〈进出口统计〉7月出口753亿美元史上第3高 8月挑战最长34红 全年上看8千亿美元\">〈进出口统计〉7月出口753亿美元史上第3高 8月挑战最长34红 全年上看8千亿美元</a></li>\n    <li><a href=\"/new/tw/article-20818.html\" title=\"乡林赖正镒:在台房市推案力道将循序加大 明年双北总销逾110亿元\">乡林赖正镒:在台房市推案力道将循序加大 明年双北总销逾110亿元</a></li>\n    <li><a href=\"/new/tw/article-6707.html\" title=\"双代工策略生变!英特尔原定七成订单给台积电 如今90%以上改自家生产\">双代工策略生变!英特尔原定七成订单给台积电 如今90%以上改自家生产</a></li>\n    <li><a href=\"/new/tw/article-16935.html\" title=\"〈房产〉房仲调查:看跌房价从6成收歛到3成 房市信心转中性 新竹最乐观\">〈房产〉房仲调查:看跌房价从6成收歛到3成 房市信心转中性 新竹最乐观</a></li>\n    <li><a href=\"/new/tw/article-2373.html\" title=\"亚弘电订单能见度不弱  3.1元股息敲定8/5除息交易\">亚弘电订单能见度不弱  3.1元股息敲定8/5除息交易</a></li>\n    <li><a href=\"/new/tw/article-6079.html\" title=\"巨亨速报 - Factset 最新调查:南电(8046-TW)EPS预估上修至15.4元,预估目标价为1300元\">巨亨速报 - Factset 最新调查:南电(8046-TW)EPS预估上修至15.4元,预估目标价为1300元</a></li>\n  </ul>\n</div>",
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