AI泡沫一触即发？Google、联电股价下跌真相与第四季选股策略！

全球搜寻龙头谷歌(GOOGL-US)财报一出，盘后股价直接重挫；晶圆代工大厂联电(2303-TW)明明在法说会上报出双增好成绩，甚至喊出明年平均售价（ASP）要调升10%，结果股价也不给面子，直接跳水。这是为何？

江江认为，第四季选股不能只看题材有多热门，更要看三件事：成长能不能转化成获利、筹码有没有持续累积，以及股价是否出现转强讯号。

一、Google重挫12%！AI没有突然消失，市场担心的是什么？
Alphabet第三季营收约1,276亿美元，年增25%；Google Cloud营收约307亿美元，年增103%，营业利益也比去年同期成长30%。单看这些数字，很难说Google的营运突然失速。但市场并不是只看云端业务。

第三季每股盈余为2.12美元，低于市场预期；股权投资损失也明显影响获利。此外，搜寻广告成长、AI基础建设支出，以及未来投资报酬率，都成为投资人重新评估股价的理由。

这就像一家餐厅，外送生意成长得非常快，内用也有稳定客人，但老板为了扩大营业规模，不断投入大笔资金。如果市场开始担心这些投资何时才能回收，就算营收持续增加，也不代表股价一定上涨。

所以，Google股价重挫，不等于AI需求消失；但云端成长强劲，也不代表所有AI股票都值得追高。对投资人来说，真正值得观察的是：AI资本支出是否持续转化成供应链订单？相关公司的营收成长，能不能进一步带动毛利率与每股盈余？这才是判断AI行情能否延续的关键。

二、联电涨价10%为何救不了股价？
联电第三季毛利率与营业利益率双增，明年还要调升价格10%，听起来是大利多对吧？但魔鬼藏在细节里：在万物皆涨的环境下，折旧成本与原物料成本同步暴增，涨价10%顶多只是抵销成本上升，毛利率与EPS根本无法爆发成长！更关键的是，成熟制程面临全球扩产与竞争压力，资金非常精明，永远只追逐具备技术独占力的「先进制程」龙头台积电(2330-TW)。这也是为什么法人选择把资金从成熟制程抽出，转向拥抱一线主流龙头。

三、别再追高杀低！第四季布局先看三个讯号
最近市场震荡加剧，许多投资人最痛苦的不是完全没有股票，而是手上的股票涨不动，卖掉却反弹；刚追进去，又碰上下一波下跌。这种行情最容易让人失去操作纪律。面对剧烈震荡，江江建议，第四季布局可以从三个方向观察。

讯号一：MACD动能是否真正改善
讯号二：突破是否伴随成交量增加
讯号三：法人买超是否具有延续性

四、第四季观察名单：五档AI与半导体指标股
每年第四季都是法人为明年大行情做布局的黄金期。当散户因为短期利空吓得抛售股票时，内行的大钱（特别是投信法人）早已在低档悄悄锁码吃货。以下五档个股，分别涵盖先进制程、客制化晶片、AI伺服器PCB、散热及被动元件，可作为后续追踪的研究名单。

台积电(2330-TW) 获投信连续买超20天，买超金额高居台股之冠。作为全球先进制程绝对霸主，独霸CoWoS与CPO先进封装技术，更是全球AI算力不可或缺的命脉，获利成长透明度极高

世芯-KY(3661-TW) 获投信连续17天买超锁码。作为客制化IC（ASIC）龙头，深度绑定北美云端巨头，完美搭上各大CSP自研AI晶片暴增的长线趋势，基本面获利动能强劲。

金像电(2368-TW) 获投信连买16天，累计买超金额突破25亿元。身为全球AI伺服器高阶板材龙头，受惠高阶网通与伺服器PCB板层数大幅升级，产业利基稳固，获利持续向上攀升。

奇𬭎(3017-TW) 获投信连续11天买超布局。身为水冷散热龙头，随着新一代高功耗AI晶片放量，水冷板与水冷系统渗透率大幅暴增，展现强大技术壁垒与获利爆发力。

华新科(2492-TW) 获投信单月大买近2万张。MLCC被动元件大厂，订单出货比（B/B值）从1.4跳升至1.8，AI产品营收比重攀升至20%，受惠规格升级与产能扩充，获利展现强烈转机爆发力。

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文章来源：摩尔投顾－江国中分析师

本公司所推荐分析之个别有价证券无不当之财务利益关系以往之绩效不保证未来获利投资人应独立判断审慎评估并自负投资风险

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第四季选股看MACD、量能与法人买超延续性，观察台积电、世芯-KY、金像电、奇𬭎、华新科。", "img": "https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6641496/l/d8f28c348d064a4b87019c8d25ee6c83.jpg", "content": "全球搜寻龙头谷歌(GOOGL-US)财报一出，盘后股价直接重挫；晶圆代工大厂联电(2303-TW)明明在法说会上报出双增好成绩，甚至喊出明年平均售价（ASP）要调升10%，结果股价也不给面子，直接跳水。这是为何？\n<img src=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6641496/l/d8f28c348d064a4b87019c8d25ee6c83.jpg\" alt=\"AI泡沫一触即发？Google、联电股价下跌真相与第四季选股策略！\" style=\"width:50%;height:auto;border-radius:6px;margin:15px auto;display:block;\">\n\n\n江江认为，第四季选股不能只看题材有多热门，更要看三件事：成长能不能转化成获利、筹码有没有持续累积，以及股价是否出现转强讯号。\n\n一、Google重挫12%！AI没有突然消失，市场担心的是什么？ \nAlphabet第三季营收约1,276亿美元，年增25%；Google Cloud营收约307亿美元，年增103%，营业利益也比去年同期成长30%。单看这些数字，很难说Google的营运突然失速。但市场并不是只看云端业务。\n\n第三季每股盈余为2.12美元，低于市场预期；股权投资损失也明显影响获利。此外，搜寻广告成长、AI基础建设支出，以及未来投资报酬率，都成为投资人重新评估股价的理由。\n\n这就像一家餐厅，外送生意成长得非常快，内用也有稳定客人，但老板为了扩大营业规模，不断投入大笔资金。如果市场开始担心这些投资何时才能回收，就算营收持续增加，也不代表股价一定上涨。\n\n所以，Google股价重挫，不等于AI需求消失；但云端成长强劲，也不代表所有AI股票都值得追高。对投资人来说，真正值得观察的是：AI资本支出是否持续转化成供应链订单？相关公司的营收成长，能不能进一步带动毛利率与每股盈余？这才是判断AI行情能否延续的关键。\n\n二、联电涨价10%为何救不了股价？ \n联电第三季毛利率与营业利益率双增，明年还要调升价格10%，听起来是大利多对吧？但魔鬼藏在细节里：在万物皆涨的环境下，折旧成本与原物料成本同步暴增，涨价10%顶多只是抵销成本上升，毛利率与EPS根本无法爆发成长！更关键的是，成熟制程面临全球扩产与竞争压力，资金非常精明，永远只追逐具备技术独占力的「先进制程」龙头台积电(2330-TW)。这也是为什么法人选择把资金从成熟制程抽出，转向拥抱一线主流龙头。\n\n三、别再追高杀低！第四季布局先看三个讯号 \n最近市场震荡加剧，许多投资人最痛苦的不是完全没有股票，而是手上的股票涨不动，卖掉却反弹；刚追进去，又碰上下一波下跌。这种行情最容易让人失去操作纪律。面对剧烈震荡，江江建议，第四季布局可以从三个方向观察。\n\n讯号一：MACD动能是否真正改善 \n讯号二：突破是否伴随成交量增加 \n讯号三：法人买超是否具有延续性\n\n四、第四季观察名单：五档AI与半导体指标股 \n每年第四季都是法人为明年大行情做布局的黄金期。当散户因为短期利空吓得抛售股票时，内行的大钱（特别是投信法人）早已在低档悄悄锁码吃货。以下五档个股，分别涵盖先进制程、客制化晶片、AI伺服器PCB、散热及被动元件，可作为后续追踪的研究名单。\n\n台积电(2330-TW) 获投信连续买超20天，买超金额高居台股之冠。作为全球先进制程绝对霸主，独霸CoWoS与CPO先进封装技术，更是全球AI算力不可或缺的命脉，获利成长透明度极高\n\n世芯-KY(3661-TW) 获投信连续17天买超锁码。作为客制化IC（ASIC）龙头，深度绑定北美云端巨头，完美搭上各大CSP自研AI晶片暴增的长线趋势，基本面获利动能强劲。\n\n金像电(2368-TW) 获投信连买16天，累计买超金额突破25亿元。身为全球AI伺服器高阶板材龙头，受惠高阶网通与伺服器PCB板层数大幅升级，产业利基稳固，获利持续向上攀升。\n\n奇𬭎(3017-TW) 获投信连续11天买超布局。身为水冷散热龙头，随着新一代高功耗AI晶片放量，水冷板与水冷系统渗透率大幅暴增，展现强大技术壁垒与获利爆发力。\n\n华新科(2492-TW) 获投信单月大买近2万张。MLCC被动元件大厂，订单出货比（B/B值）从1.4跳升至1.8，AI产品营收比重攀升至20%，受惠规格升级与产能扩充，获利展现强烈转机爆发力。\n\n更多产业趋势报告+盘中讯息→请加入江江Line@：\n\n<a href=\"https://lin.ee/vTaRqlQ\">https://lin.ee/vTaRqlQ</a>\n\n江江每日解盘影片→含金量满满，节目内容太精彩+太权威惹！\n\n<div class=\"youtube-embed-wrapper\" style=\"position:relative;padding-bottom:56.25%;padding-top:30px;height:0;overflow:hidden;\"><iframe allowfullscreen=\"\" frameborder=\"0\" height=\"360\" src=\"//www.youtube.com/embed/e5wvVWjGdio\" style=\"position: absolute;top: 0;left: 0;width: 100%;height: 100%;\" width=\"640\"></iframe></div>\n\n坚持用心制作优质好节目，一定要看到最后！ \n并且【订阅+按赞+分享帮助好友】\n\n文章来源：摩尔投顾－江国中分析师\n\n本公司所推荐分析之个别有价证券无不当之财务利益关系以往之绩效不保证未来获利投资人应独立判断审慎评估并自负投资风险<div class=\"related-articles seo-links\">\n <h4>相关阅读</h4>\n <ul>\n <li><a href=\"/new/tw/article-6679.html\" title=\"盘中速报 - 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