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"description": "台股开低走低跌1156.5点收45211.83,量8777.3亿;外资卖超1124.67亿、三大法人合计卖超1398.44亿。 美股科技财报不如预期引发AI投资效益疑虑,那指跌1.38%、费半跌1.42%,Alphabet、亚马逊、英特尔走弱。",
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"content": "<p>【量大强涨股整理】台股杀破半年线…现在该砍还是抱?抓紧下一波【潜力股】两大面向,错过捶心肝!</p>\n<p style=\"text-align:center;\"><img src=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6642055/l/88ffa5ac6ccd5a8c5e2cd868aa908bb8.jpg\" alt=\"【量大强涨股整理】台股杀破半年线…现在该砍还是抱?抓紧下一波【潜力股】两大面向,错过捶心肝!\" style=\"width:50%;height:auto;border-radius:6px;margin:15px auto;display:block;\"></p>\n\n\n<p><strong>影片分享给你知道</strong></p>\n\n<div class=\"youtube-embed-wrapper\" style=\"position:relative;padding-bottom:56.25%;padding-top:30px;height:0;overflow:hidden;\"><iframe allowfullscreen=\"\" frameborder=\"0\" height=\"360\" src=\"//www.youtube.com/embed/VROtQ1TVurU\" style=\"position: absolute;top: 0;left: 0;width: 100%;height: 100%;\" width=\"640\"></iframe></div>\n\n<p>(按赞订阅打开小铃铛)</p>\n\n<p> </p>\n\n<p><strong>再来看一下今天的台股</strong><strong>!</strong></p>\n\n<p> </p>\n\n<p><strong>加权指数今日开低走低,终场下跌</strong><strong>1156.50</strong><strong>点,收在</strong><strong>45211.83</strong><strong>,成交量</strong><strong>8777.30</strong><strong>亿。</strong></p>\n\n<p> </p>\n\n<p><strong>观察三大法人今天筹码动向,外资卖超</strong><strong>1124.67</strong><strong>亿元,投信买超</strong><strong>239.93</strong><strong>亿元,自营商卖超</strong><strong>513.70</strong><strong>亿元,三大法人合计卖超</strong><strong>1398.44</strong><strong>亿元,其中,外资、自营商连卖二日,投信则连买十四日共买超</strong><strong> 2231.02</strong><strong>亿元</strong><strong> </strong><strong>。</strong></p>\n\n<p> </p>\n\n<p><strong>美股周四,四大指数回档修正,其中那斯达克指数下跌</strong><strong>1.38%</strong><strong>,费城半导体指数下跌</strong><strong>1.42%</strong><strong>,道琼工业指数下跌下跌</strong><strong>0.25%</strong><strong>,标普</strong><strong>500</strong><strong>指数同步承压,美股科技股财报利空接连发酵,市场对</strong><strong>AI</strong><strong>资本支出效益及企业获利前景的疑虑升温,拖累科技股卖压扩大,显示市场资金开始重新检视科技巨头的投资回报与现金流表现,科技巨头财报方面,</strong><strong>(GOOG-US)Alphabet</strong><strong>第三季营收与每股盈余双双低于市场预期,自由现金流连续两季呈现负值,尽管维持全年</strong><strong>1,950</strong><strong>亿至</strong><strong>2,050</strong><strong>亿美元资本支出预估,但庞大的</strong><strong>AI</strong><strong>基础建设投资也引发市场对获利转换效率的担忧,股价重挫约</strong><strong>12%</strong><strong>,</strong><strong>(AMZN-US)</strong><strong>亚马逊,第三季营收与获利表现同样不如预期,自由现金流流出</strong><strong>424</strong><strong>亿美元,盘后股价一度下跌</strong><strong>4.25%</strong><strong>;</strong><strong>(INTC-US)</strong><strong>英特尔,虽公布第三季财报,但营收展望不如市场预期,盘后股价重挫</strong><strong>3.62%</strong><strong>,此外</strong><strong>(CAT-US)</strong><strong>开拓重工,第三季获利与营收优于预期,股价却仍下跌</strong><strong>9.25%</strong><strong>,反映市场对景气前景及企业资本支出的态度转趋谨慎。</strong></p>\n\n<p> </p>\n\n<p><strong>不过,科技股并非全面走弱,</strong><strong>(MSFT-US)</strong><strong>微软,受惠于</strong><strong>Azure</strong><strong>云端基础设施业务成长,盘中一度获得买盘支撑,但终场仍由红翻黑;</strong><strong>(AAPL-US)</strong><strong>苹果、</strong><strong>(META-US)Meta</strong><strong>及部分半导体设备股则逆势收红,光通讯族群方面,</strong><strong>(MRVL-US)</strong><strong>迈威尔传出洽谈收购光通讯大厂</strong><strong>(LITE-US)Lumentum</strong><strong>,最快下周宣布交易,凸显</strong><strong>AI</strong><strong>资料中心高速光通讯需求持续攀升,产业整并趋势升温,</strong><strong>Lumentum</strong><strong>股价震荡收红约</strong><strong>0.6%</strong><strong>,迈威尔则重挫逾</strong><strong>13%</strong><strong>,反映市场对并购成本及未来效益仍有疑虑,随着</strong><strong>AI</strong><strong>投资进入新阶段,资金选股逐渐回归基本面,后续须留意订单能见度、获利成长及现金流表现,显示目前资金对</strong><strong>AI</strong><strong>供应链的选股标准更加严格,市场已从单纯追逐</strong><strong>AI</strong><strong>题材,逐步转向检视订单能见度、获利能力及现金流品质,美国通膨数据方面,</strong><strong>9</strong><strong>月个人消费支出</strong><strong>PCE</strong><strong>物价指数月增</strong><strong>0.5%</strong><strong>、年增</strong><strong>3.6%</strong><strong>,核心</strong><strong>PCE</strong><strong>月增</strong><strong>0.3%</strong><strong>、年增</strong><strong>3.1%</strong><strong>,整体符合市场预期,但通膨仍处相对高档,使联准会后续利率政策增添不确定性,当</strong><strong>AI</strong><strong>投资支出持续攀升、企业现金流受到压缩,加上利率政策缺乏进一步宽松讯号,短线美股科技股评价势必面临重新调整。</strong></p>\n\n<p> </p>\n\n<p><strong>台股方面,受到美股</strong><strong>AI</strong><strong>科技股重挫及国际市场避险情绪升温影响,今日开盘面临沉重卖压,盘中一度重挫回测半年线及</strong><strong>45,000</strong><strong>点整数关卡,加权指数今日开低走低,终场下跌</strong><strong>1156.50</strong><strong>点,收在</strong><strong>45211.83</strong><strong>,成交量</strong><strong>8777.30</strong><strong>亿,虽然今日收黑</strong><strong>k</strong><strong>棒,回测半年线后出现收脚讯号,且台股有留下长达</strong><strong>485</strong><strong>点左右的下影线,显示仍有支撑力道,显示出弱中透强的讯号,不过,若从国内基本面观察,台湾景气动能并未随国际股市修正而转弱,国发会景气灯号连续十个月亮出红灯,改写史上最长红纪录;</strong><strong>9</strong><strong>月外销订单达</strong><strong>1,142</strong><strong>亿美元,连续两个月突破千亿美元,年增</strong><strong>62.4%</strong><strong>,主要受惠</strong><strong>AI</strong><strong>伺服器、资料中心及半导体需求持续畅旺。此外,上市柜公司</strong><strong>9</strong><strong>月营收创下历史新高,前三季累计营收突破</strong><strong>50</strong><strong>兆元,显示企业营运仍具备相当韧性,展望第四季,随着辉达新一代</strong><strong>Vera Rubin</strong><strong>平台逐步推进,</strong><strong>AI</strong><strong>伺服器、半导体、</strong><strong>PCB</strong><strong>、载板及高速传输供应链仍具备中长期成长机会。</strong></p>\n\n<p> </p>\n\n<p><strong>整体而言,这波修正主要反映美国科技巨头财报不如预期、</strong><strong>AI</strong><strong>资本支出效益疑虑及法人资金调节,并非</strong><strong>AI</strong><strong>产业长期需求出现根本性反转,短线指数波动恐持续加剧,但在国内景气维持高档、企业营收持续成长的支撑下,且观察筹码面</strong><strong>10</strong><strong>月</strong><strong>6</strong><strong>日至</strong><strong>10</strong><strong>月</strong><strong>29 </strong><strong>日大官股共买超</strong><strong>1,720 </strong><strong>亿元,投信也连买十四日共买超</strong><strong> 2231.02</strong><strong>亿元</strong><strong> </strong><strong>,显示仍然有支撑买盘,预期市场经过震荡整理后,有机会逐步寻求支撑,盘势以先下后上、个股表现看待,建议回归基本面,优先布局营收成长、获利能见度高及</strong><strong>AI</strong><strong>供应链具实质订单的个股。</strong></p>\n\n<p> </p>\n\n<p><strong>权值股方面,</strong><strong>(2330-TW)</strong><strong>台积电,下跌</strong><strong>1.86%</strong><strong>,收在</strong><strong>2370</strong><strong>元,</strong><strong>AI</strong><strong>晶片需求持续攀升,台积电</strong><strong>CoWoS</strong><strong>先进封装报价酝酿调涨</strong><strong>1</strong><strong>至</strong><strong>2</strong><strong>成,部分设备交期延长至</strong><strong>6</strong><strong>至</strong><strong>8</strong><strong>个月,供应链扩产压力升高,随着</strong><strong>AI GPU</strong><strong>、伺服器</strong><strong>CPU</strong><strong>及客制化</strong><strong>ASIC</strong><strong>需求扩大,加上高频宽记忆体整合提高制程复杂度,封装与测试产能同步吃紧,台积电持续推进先进封装布局,法人估</strong><strong>2026</strong><strong>年月产能朝逾</strong><strong>13</strong><strong>万片迈进,</strong><strong>2027</strong><strong>年以</strong><strong>20</strong><strong>万片为目标,并扩充嘉义、台南产能,长期也规划美国新厂,相关设备与零组件供应商可望受惠</strong><strong> </strong><strong>;</strong><strong> </strong></p>\n\n<p> </p>\n\n<p><strong>(2317-TW)</strong><strong>鸿海,下跌</strong><strong>1.01%</strong><strong>,收在</strong><strong>245.5</strong><strong>元,</strong><strong>2026</strong><strong>年营运动能持续看旺,预估</strong><strong>10</strong><strong>至</strong><strong>12</strong><strong>月营收逐月成长,第四季营收季增可望达</strong><strong>39%</strong><strong>,主要受惠</strong><strong>AI</strong><strong>资料中心需求强劲,新世代</strong><strong>AI</strong><strong>伺服器机柜及</strong><strong>CPO</strong><strong>交换器提前</strong><strong>2</strong><strong>至</strong><strong>3</strong><strong>个月量产出货,搭配</strong><strong>GPU</strong><strong>、</strong><strong>LPU</strong><strong>伺服器陆续放量,带动产品平均单价与营收提升,此外国际品牌新机上市及折叠手机新型态设计,有望刺激高阶机种换机需求,推升鸿海出货表现,展望</strong><strong>2027</strong><strong>年,</strong><strong>AI</strong><strong>伺服器与高阶智慧型手机双引擎持续挹注,营运成长可期;</strong></p>\n\n<p> </p>\n\n<p><strong>(2454-TW)</strong><strong>联发科,下跌</strong><strong>3.21%</strong><strong>,收在</strong><strong>3915</strong><strong>元,第三季营运表现亮眼,受惠智慧装置新专案量产及</strong><strong>TV SoC</strong><strong>价格调整,带动营收达</strong><strong>1,680.58</strong><strong>亿元,季增</strong><strong>10.4%</strong><strong>、年增</strong><strong>18.3%</strong><strong>,税后净利</strong><strong>281.99</strong><strong>亿元,</strong><strong>EPS</strong><strong>达</strong><strong>17.50</strong><strong>元,毛利率维持</strong><strong>46.3%</strong><strong>,营业利益年增</strong><strong>22.2%</strong><strong>,显示本业获利动能稳健,此外公司持续加码</strong><strong>AI</strong><strong>与先进通讯研发,第三季研发费用达</strong><strong>422.37</strong><strong>亿元,惟存货增至</strong><strong>1,535</strong><strong>亿元,周转天数升至</strong><strong>127</strong><strong>日,且营业现金流转为净流出,后续须留意库存去化及现金流改善情况,展望后市,</strong><strong>AI</strong><strong>布局与新产品量产仍是营运成长关键</strong><strong> </strong><strong>。</strong><strong> </strong></p>\n\n<p> </p>\n\n<p><strong>随着</strong><strong>AI</strong><strong>伺服器与高速运算需求持续扩大,半导体设备及光通讯产业同步迎来新一波成长契机,</strong><strong>(4526-TW)</strong><strong>东台,受惠半导体先进制程与设备需求回温,</strong><strong>(3105-TW)</strong><strong>稳懋,则受惠光通讯及高速传输应用拓展,两家公司分别掌握设备升级与</strong><strong>AI</strong><strong>光通讯商机,后续营运成长值得关注。</strong></p>\n\n<p><strong>2026.10.16 </strong><strong>股市期皇后领先预告</strong><strong>(4526-TW)</strong><strong>东台</strong></p>\n\n<p><img data-height=\"354\" data-ratio=\"1.4576271186440677\" data-src-m=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6642055/m/f09a90e5ffe1231e44877026f1d0763f.jpg\" data-width=\"516\" src=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6642055/l/f09a90e5ffe1231e44877026f1d0763f.jpg\"></p>\n\n<p><strong>(4526-TW)</strong><strong>东台,</strong><strong>34.1=>55.5</strong><strong>,领先预告后</strong><strong>+62%</strong><strong>,</strong></p>\n\n<p><strong>东台,于</strong><strong>TPCA Show 2026</strong><strong>展出</strong><strong>CCD</strong><strong>高精度钻孔机及</strong><strong>AMR</strong><strong>无人化解决方案,锁定</strong><strong>AI</strong><strong>伺服器板与</strong><strong>IC</strong><strong>载板需求,整合自动换刀、板材上下料及刀具仓储管理,提升生产效率与加工精度,随着全球</strong><strong>AI</strong><strong>基础建设持续扩张,高阶</strong><strong>PCB</strong><strong>钻孔设备需求升温,东台已切入台湾、中国及韩国指标板厂供应链,订单能见度直达</strong><strong>2027</strong><strong>年底,目前产能维持满载,并积极优化产线、扩充产能,掌握</strong><strong>AI</strong><strong>产业成长商机。</strong></p>\n\n<p><img data-height=\"342\" data-ratio=\"1.6198830409356726\" data-src-m=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6642055/m/f9f81e4a930d861e332f715870303640.jpg\" data-width=\"554\" src=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6642055/l/f9f81e4a930d861e332f715870303640.jpg\"></p>\n\n<p><strong>2026.10.24 </strong><strong>股市期皇后领先预告</strong><strong>(3105-TW)</strong><strong>稳懋</strong></p>\n\n<p><img data-height=\"358\" data-ratio=\"1.5223463687150838\" data-src-m=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6642055/m/ff8f3c7d3abd50ffd32f46c239f54f15.jpg\" data-width=\"545\" src=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6642055/l/ff8f3c7d3abd50ffd32f46c239f54f15.jpg\"></p>\n\n<p><strong>(3105-TW)</strong><strong>稳懋,</strong><strong>486=>589</strong><strong>,领先预告后</strong><strong>+21%</strong><strong>,</strong></p>\n\n<p><strong>稳懋受惠</strong><strong>PIN</strong><strong>等光通讯新订单自</strong><strong>6</strong><strong>月开始量产,搭配</strong><strong>AI</strong><strong>资料中心、低轨道卫星需求成长,后续营运动能看俏,</strong><strong>2026</strong><strong>年第二季营收</strong><strong>52.57</strong><strong>亿元,季增</strong><strong>14.54%</strong><strong>,税后净利</strong><strong>9.77</strong><strong>亿元,季增</strong><strong>83.22%</strong><strong>,展望第三季,光通讯出货放量,加上低轨卫星标案陆续出货,可望带动营收成长,其中光通讯成长动能最受期待,随新订单第四季持续放大,</strong><strong>2027</strong><strong>年营运成长空间可期。</strong></p>\n\n<p><img data-height=\"361\" data-ratio=\"1.5290858725761773\" data-src-m=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6642055/m/98bbc3618aa7c1c3033747d2d1a0b961.jpg\" data-width=\"552\" src=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6642055/l/98bbc3618aa7c1c3033747d2d1a0b961.jpg\"></p>\n\n<p><a name=\"_Hlk165906386\"></a><a name=\"_Hlk173510460\">欢迎免费订阅</a><br>\n股市期皇后 庄佳萤</p>\n\n<p><a href=\"https://lin.ee/9cyliMq\">https://lin.ee/9cyliMq</a></p>\n\n<p> </p>\n\n<p>10/30</p>\n\n<p>强势股分享</p>\n\n<p>【上市 量大上涨股】<br>\n(2466-TW)冠西电</p>\n\n<p>(1201-TW)味全</p>\n\n<p>(4526-TW)东台</p>\n\n<p>(2615-TW)万海</p>\n\n<p>(2468-TW)华经</p>\n\n<p>(2603-TW)长荣</p>\n\n<p>(2516-TW)新建</p>\n\n<p>(2352-TW)佳世达</p>\n\n<p>(2609-TW)阳明</p>\n\n<p>(2606-TW)裕民</p>\n\n<p>(6176-TW)瑞仪</p>\n\n<p>(2254-TW)巨铠精密-创</p>\n\n<p>(6919-TW)康霈*</p>\n\n<p>(2444-TW)兆劲</p>\n\n<p>(2912-TW)统一超</p>\n\n<p>(2607-TW)荣运</p>\n\n<p><img data-height=\"496\" data-ratio=\"1.1008064516129032\" data-src-m=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6642055/m/a4bbfafed16a5fb440235fa51adb4714.jpg\" data-width=\"546\" src=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6642055/l/a4bbfafed16a5fb440235fa51adb4714.jpg\"></p>\n\n<p>10/30</p>\n\n<p>强势股分享</p>\n\n<p>【上柜 量大上涨股】<br>\n(6825-TW)和畅科技</p>\n\n<p>(5013-TW)强新</p>\n\n<p>(7704-TW)明远精密</p>\n\n<p>(6140-TW)讯达</p>\n\n<p>(6697-TW)东捷资讯</p>\n\n<p>(5245-TW)智晶</p>\n\n<p>(3325-TW)旭品</p>\n\n<p>(8099-TW)大世科</p>\n\n<p>(6234-TW)高侨</p>\n\n<p>(6532-TW)瑞耘</p>\n\n<p>(6233-TW)旺玖</p>\n\n<p>(4162-TW)智擎</p>\n\n<p>(5202-TW)力新</p>\n\n<p>(5465-TW)富骅</p>\n\n<p>(6179-TW)亚通</p>\n\n<p>(6199-TW)天品</p>\n\n<p><img data-height=\"498\" data-ratio=\"1.0883534136546185\" data-src-m=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6642055/m/b573981c76434bcb8dcb685e47fbcf64.jpg\" data-width=\"542\" src=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6642055/l/b573981c76434bcb8dcb685e47fbcf64.jpg\"></p>\n\n<p>庄佳萤分析师:<br>\n每日分享盘势解析跟精选产业个股,让投资朋友轻松追踪2026年年台股操作方向,相关详细内容请加入Line@索取,免费提供给您!</p>\n\n<p> </p>\n\n<p>股市期皇后 证期双分析师 庄佳萤</p>\n\n<p> </p>\n\n<p>LINE官方帐号</p>\n\n<p>LINE ID搜寻: @win1788 (@不可省略)</p>\n\n<p>或是点击下方网址加入<br>\n<a href=\"https://lin.ee/9cyliMq\">https://lin.ee/9cyliMq</a></p>\n\n<p> </p>\n\n<p>Youtube影音频道 精彩解盘影片不容错过!</p>\n\n<p>(记得按赞,订阅并打开小铃铛)</p>\n\n<p><a href=\"http://yt1.piee.pw/QAHKZ\">http://yt1.piee.pw/QAHKZ</a></p>\n\n<p> </p>\n\n<p>FB粉丝团:【股市期皇后】</p>\n\n<p><a href=\"https://goo.gl/kN2VKT\">https://goo.gl/kN2VKT</a><br>\n </p>\n\n<figure><img data-height=\"408\" data-mime=\"image/png\" data-ratio=\"1.3308823529411764\" data-src-m=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6642055/m/3241f315767182bfe764da5205c03821.jpg\" data-width=\"543\" src=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6642055/l/3241f315767182bfe764da5205c03821.jpg\"></figure>\n\n<p> </p>\n\n<p>文章来源:摩尔投顾庄佳萤分析师</p>\n\n<p class=\"warning\">本公司所推荐分析之个别有价证券<br>\n无不当之财务利益关系 以往之绩效不保证未来获利<br>\n投资人应独立判断 审慎评估并自负投资风险</p><div class=\"related-articles seo-links\">\n <h4>相关阅读</h4>\n <ul>\n <li><a href=\"/new/tw/article-18598.html\" title=\"〈房产〉全台高龄人口达479万人突破2成 台北市达24.76%居22县市之冠\">〈房产〉全台高龄人口达479万人突破2成 台北市达24.76%居22县市之冠</a></li>\n <li><a 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