Agentic AI洗牌晶片市场！ABF缺口扩大至35%，同样创天价要选谁?

当 Agentic AI 带动算力结构大洗牌，AI 的野火已从 GPU 一路烧向伺服器 CPU，彻底点燃了高阶 ABF 载板的世纪大缺货，在晶片尺寸与叠层复杂度极致飙升下，产业定价权的争夺战已让市场全面转向卖方主导，谁能靠制程壁垒与策略结盟，斩获长线获利翻倍的终极红利？

〈AgenticAI 需求蔓延，CPU 乘数效应点燃载板缺口〉

本轮 ABF 载板行情的定性，已摆脱过去消费性电子带动的传统循环，在多个 AI Agent 协作的架构下，CPU 扮演工具调度与任务控制的核心，研调机构预估，PC 在整体 ABF 消费中的占比将从 2020 年的 61% 骤降至 2028 年的 10%，而 AI 晶片与伺服器 CPU 的合计占比将攀升至 85%，预估 2026 至 2028 年缺口将依序扩大至 8%、27% 与 35%，确认本轮 ABF 多头至少还有 4 至 5 年的延续性。

〈材料紧缺筑起壁垒，玻璃载板替代疑虑暂除〉

从供给端来看，产能受限的警讯接二连三，全球 ABF 膜龙头味之素 (Ajinomoto) 已松口采取成本转嫁策略，日本载板大厂 Ibiden 更将 2026 财年资本支出暴增至 2100 亿日圆，并直言 2028 年高阶 ABF 需求面积将较 2024 年狂飙 10.7 倍，随着载板层数拉升至 16 至 24 层，关键原料 T-glass 玻纤布供应瓶颈至少延续至 2027 年，至于玻璃载板技术，因镀铜与压合良率短期难突破，2030 年前难大规模量产，实质冲击有限。

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〈卖方市场确立，产业定价权与获利全面爆发〉

在供需缺口直达长线的背景下，载板厂展现强大的议价与成本转嫁能力，目前高阶订单交期延伸至 1.5 到 2 年，客户为了锁定产能，甚至愿意提供长期资金协助扩产，使台厂的营运杠杆大幅释放，长线获利空间正式被打开。

欣兴 (3037-TW) 作为全球高阶 ABF 技术布局最完整的旗舰厂，16 层以上高阶产品占其 ABF 营收达 60%，为 NVIDIABlackwell 晶片的第二大载板供应商，全面卡位 CPO 与 CoWoS 等次世代封装；景硕 (3189-TW) 日前私募案尘埃落定，引进台系晶圆代工厂与美系 CPU 设计巨头等策略股东，正式跻身先进封装核心链，被点名有望夺下辉达下一代 VeraCPU 载板的主要市占，成为 AgenticAI 爆发的首波核心受惠者；南电(8046-TW)：短期虽面临大股东南亚申让持股的技术面杂音，但基本面依然强悍，下半年受惠 800G/1.6T 高速交换器专案与美系 ASIC 持续放量，第三季产线可望满载。

随着 PC 产能占比式微、AI 晶片与 CPU 成为绝对主导，台厂的长线获利空间已正式被打开，这场由 Agentic AI 驱动的供给结构重组，注定是一场在 2030 年前都难以被玻璃载板逆转的稀缺之战，在产业供需缺口崩溃扩大至 35% 的强势格局下，台厂的暴利多头才刚要进入下半场，邀请投资人下载智霖老师的 APP 并锁定直播，一起掌握产业最前线的产业脉动！

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文章来源：陈智霖分析师 / 凯旭投顾

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"articleView": "article.html", "seoTitle": "", "seoKeywords": "", "seoDescription": "", "type": "0", "dataConfig": null, "level": 1 }, "article": { "id": 4109, "cid": 27, "subCid": null, "title": "Agentic AI洗牌晶片市场！ABF缺口扩大至35%，同样创天价要选谁?", "shortTitle": "Agentic AI洗牌晶片市场！ABF缺口扩大至35%，同", "tagId": "", "attr": "", "articleView": null, "source": null, "author": "网络", "description": "当 Agentic AI 带动算力结构大洗牌，AI 的野火已从 GPU 一路烧向伺服器 CPU，彻底点燃了高阶 ABF 载板的世纪大缺货，在晶片尺寸与叠层复杂度极致飙升下，产业定价权的争夺战已让市场全面转向卖方主导，谁能靠制程壁垒与策略结盟，斩获长线获利翻倍的终极红利？〈AgenticAI 需求蔓延，CPU 乘数效应点燃载板缺口〉本轮 ABF 载板行情的定性，已摆脱过去消费性电子带动的传统循环，在多个 AI Agent 协作的架构下，CPU 扮演工具调度与任务控制的核心，研调机构预估，PC ", "img": "https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6514035/l/3e74f0f7b82ecfc41ef23d71b426e1c4.jpg", "content": "当 Agentic AI 带动算力结构大洗牌，AI 的野火已从 GPU 一路烧向伺服器 CPU，彻底点燃了高阶 ABF 载板的世纪大缺货，在晶片尺寸与叠层复杂度极致飙升下，产业定价权的争夺战已让市场全面转向卖方主导，谁能靠制程壁垒与策略结盟，斩获长线获利翻倍的终极红利？\n<img src=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6514035/l/3e74f0f7b82ecfc41ef23d71b426e1c4.jpg\" alt=\"Agentic AI洗牌晶片市场！ABF缺口扩大至35%，同样创天价要选谁?\" style=\"width:50%;height:auto;border-radius:6px;margin:15px auto;display:block;\">\n\n\n〈AgenticAI 需求蔓延，CPU 乘数效应点燃载板缺口〉\n\n本轮 ABF 载板行情的定性，已摆脱过去消费性电子带动的传统循环，在多个 AI Agent 协作的架构下，CPU 扮演工具调度与任务控制的核心，研调机构预估，PC 在整体 ABF 消费中的占比将从 2020 年的 61% 骤降至 2028 年的 10%，而 AI 晶片与伺服器 CPU 的合计占比将攀升至 85%，预估 2026 至 2028 年缺口将依序扩大至 8%、27% 与 35%，确认本轮 ABF 多头至少还有 4 至 5 年的延续性。\n\n〈材料紧缺筑起壁垒，玻璃载板替代疑虑暂除〉\n\n从供给端来看，产能受限的警讯接二连三，全球 ABF 膜龙头味之素 (Ajinomoto) 已松口采取成本转嫁策略，日本载板大厂 Ibiden 更将 2026 财年资本支出暴增至 2100 亿日圆，并直言 2028 年高阶 ABF 需求面积将较 2024 年狂飙 10.7 倍，随着载板层数拉升至 16 至 24 层，关键原料 T-glass 玻纤布供应瓶颈至少延续至 2027 年，至于玻璃载板技术，因镀铜与压合良率短期难突破，2030 年前难大规模量产，实质冲击有限。\n\n〈免费下载【陈智霖分析师 APP】，掌握第一手盘势资讯与信用筹码名单〉\n\nAPP 选股会员每月仅限额招收，名额有限，每周都会提供最新「信用筹码疑虑名单」，邀请您点选连结下载【陈智霖分析师 APP】：<a href=\"https://lihi.cc/zwrii\">https://lihi.cc/zwrii</a>\n\n<figure><img data-height=\"189\" data-mime=\"image/jpeg\" data-ratio=\"4.021164021164021\" data-src-m=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6514035/m/7d609e0c1b6ccd28dd5aa3c20e8ec6e3.jpg\" data-width=\"760\" src=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6514035/l/7d609e0c1b6ccd28dd5aa3c20e8ec6e3.jpg\" srcset=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6514035/l/7d609e0c1b6ccd28dd5aa3c20e8ec6e3.jpg 1x,https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6514035/xl/7d609e0c1b6ccd28dd5aa3c20e8ec6e3.jpg 2x,https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6514035/xxl/7d609e0c1b6ccd28dd5aa3c20e8ec6e3.jpg 3x\"></figure>\n\n〈卖方市场确立，产业定价权与获利全面爆发〉\n\n在供需缺口直达长线的背景下，载板厂展现强大的议价与成本转嫁能力，目前高阶订单交期延伸至 1.5 到 2 年，客户为了锁定产能，甚至愿意提供长期资金协助扩产，使台厂的营运杠杆大幅释放，长线获利空间正式被打开。\n\n欣兴 (3037-TW) 作为全球高阶 ABF 技术布局最完整的旗舰厂，16 层以上高阶产品占其 ABF 营收达 60%，为 NVIDIABlackwell 晶片的第二大载板供应商，全面卡位 CPO 与 CoWoS 等次世代封装；景硕 (3189-TW) 日前私募案尘埃落定，引进台系晶圆代工厂与美系 CPU 设计巨头等策略股东，正式跻身先进封装核心链，被点名有望夺下辉达下一代 VeraCPU 载板的主要市占，成为 AgenticAI 爆发的首波核心受惠者；南电(8046-TW)：短期虽面临大股东南亚申让持股的技术面杂音，但基本面依然强悍，下半年受惠 800G/1.6T 高速交换器专案与美系 ASIC 持续放量，第三季产线可望满载。\n\n随着 PC 产能占比式微、AI 晶片与 CPU 成为绝对主导，台厂的长线获利空间已正式被打开，这场由 Agentic AI 驱动的供给结构重组，注定是一场在 2030 年前都难以被玻璃载板逆转的稀缺之战，在产业供需缺口崩溃扩大至 35% 的强势格局下，台厂的暴利多头才刚要进入下半场，邀请投资人下载<a href=\"https://news.cnyes.com/tag/%E9%99%B3%E6%99%BA%E9%9C%96\">智霖老师</a>的 APP 并锁定直播，一起掌握产业最前线的产业脉动！\n\n最新影音 (请点影音上方标题至 Youtube 收视品质会更佳 - TW-TW) \n \n\n<div class=\"youtube-embed-wrapper\" style=\"position:relative;padding-bottom:56.25%;padding-top:30px;height:0;overflow:hidden;\"><iframe allowfullscreen=\"\" frameborder=\"0\" height=\"360\" src=\"//www.youtube.com/embed/DgiuMHBp5Gg\" style=\"position: absolute;top: 0;left: 0;width: 100%;height: 100%;\" width=\"640\"></iframe></div>\n\n〈立即填表体验咨询陈智霖分析师会员服务〉\n\n忠实粉丝请先完成填表申请，体验每周精选操作名单、盘中到价盘中通知与即时策略更新，面对震荡行情，理性分析与数据判断是关键，立即填表跟上专业：<a href=\"https://lihi.cc/RFzlE\">https://lihi.cc/RFzlE</a>\n\n钱进热线 02-2653-8299，立即迈向系统依据的股票操作。\n\n文章来源：陈智霖分析师 / 凯旭投顾\n\n本公司所推荐分析之个别有价证券 \n无不当之财务利益关系以往之绩效不保证未来获利 \n投资人应独立判断审慎评估并自负投资风险\n<div class=\"related-articles seo-links\">\n <h4>相关阅读</h4>\n <ul>\n <li><a href=\"/new/tw/article-11807.html\" title=\"能率亚洲敲定现增案以每股28.8元发行将募集4.61亿元资金\">能率亚洲敲定现增案以每股28.8元发行将募集4.61亿元资金</a></li>\n <li><a 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