震荡盘更考验选股与节奏、友达、中美晶、智通*⊕

一、今日盘势重点

加权指数开高走低，仍守多头架构
- 加权指数盘中一度上涨 614 点、最高来到 47,395 点，但受外资持续调节、融资余额攀高、整数关卡卖压，以及市场观望月底 FOMC 会议影响，终场下跌 224 点，收 46,556 点。
- 成交量约 1.02 兆元，指数仍稳守 10 日线与月线之上，多头趋势尚未遭破坏。
OTC 同步震荡整理
- 柜买指数终场下跌 5.58 点，收 439.8 点，成交量约 3,037 亿元。
- 指数同样守稳 10 日线与月线，中小型股短线进入轮动整理阶段。

二、后市展望

基本面持续支撑台股多头
- AI 需求持续强劲，台湾 5 月外销订单年增 47.2%，创同期新高，官方预估下半年接单仍将维持成长。
- 市场普遍预估今年台湾 GDP 可望逼近甚至突破 10%，企业获利仍具上修空间。
超级法说会与财报旺季成为新催化剂
- 台积电 (2330-TW)6 月营收、第 2 季获利可望续创历史新高，第 3 季营收仍具双位数成长动能。
- 美国科技巨头包括 Tesla、Google、Microsoft 等将陆续公布财报，有助延续 AI 投资热潮。
AI 资本支出持续高速扩张
- 北美大型 CSP 持续提高 AI 投资，ASIC、半导体、伺服器、PCB、散热、电源等供应链长线受惠趋势未变。
- AI 已由生成式 AI 逐步迈向 Agentic AI（代理式 AI），带动运算需求持续升级。
资金行情仍有利多头
- ETF 规模持续成长，加上台湾超额储蓄充沛，内资已逐渐成为市场主要支撑力量。
- 第一金投顾更预估今年上市柜企业获利可望突破 7 兆元，优于市场普遍预期。
技术面仍偏多
- 国际油价回落，市场重新聚焦 AI 及企业获利。
- 短线重要支撑持续垫高，只要本周整理后未跌破关键支撑，多头仍有机会续攻 5 万点。

三、操作策略

高基期 AI 股避免追价
- 部分 ASIC、CCL、ABF 载板、设备及高价测试股近期涨幅已大，今日利多不涨甚至转弱，短线仍有修正整理压力。
- 在重新站回 10 日线前，策略上绝不可掉以轻心。
聚焦低基期转机与补涨族群
- 军工、MOSFET、电源管理 IC、光通讯、导线架、BBU、特殊化学、半导体设备、工具机、面板、封测、数位云端等族群仍维持轮动强势，可持续留意。
- AI 供应链中具基本面改善、法人买盘与产业成长题材个股，仍是中长线布局重心。
投资纪律不变
- (1) 低接、不追高。
- (2) 聚焦「量增突破＋法人／主力买超」个股。
- (3) 以 10 日线及月线作为操作防守依据。

四、结论

整体而言，台股今日属于高档震荡整理，主要受到技术面与筹码面干扰，并非基本面转弱。在 AI 长线趋势、企业获利持续创高、全球 AI 资本支出扩张，以及内资资金充沛等利多支撑下，中多格局依然未变。后续只要守稳关键均线并化解短线卖压，台股仍有机会朝 5 万点整数关卡迈进；现阶段仍应以「选股重于选市」，聚焦具成长性、低基期及法人布局的 AI 受惠股，掌握轮动行情带来的投资机会。

高档震荡盘
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文章来源：伦元投顾陈学进分析师

本公司所推荐分析之个别有价证券无不当之财务利益关系以往之绩效不保证未来获利投资人应独立判断审慎评估并自负投资风险

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"/new/tw", "orderBy": 0, "target": "0", "status": "0", "listView": "list.html", "articleView": "article.html", "seoTitle": "", "seoKeywords": "", "seoDescription": "", "type": "0", "dataConfig": null, "level": 1 }, "article": { "id": 5230, "cid": 27, "subCid": null, "title": "震荡盘更考验选股与节奏、友达、中美晶、智通*⊕", "shortTitle": "震荡盘更考验选股与节奏、友达、中美晶、智通*⊕", "tagId": "", "attr": "", "articleView": null, "source": null, "author": "网络", "description": "一、今日盘势重点加权指数开高走低，仍守多头架构加权指数盘中一度上涨 614 点、最高来到 47,395 点，但受外资持续调节、融资余额攀高、整数关卡卖压，以及市场观望月底 FOMC 会议影响，终场下跌 224 点，收 46,556 点。成交量约 1.02 兆元，指数仍稳守 10 日线与月线之上，多头趋势尚未遭破坏。 OTC 同步震荡整理柜买指数终场下跌 5.58 点，收 439.8 点，成交量约 3,037 亿元。指数同样守稳 10 日线与月线，中小型股短线进入轮动整理阶段。二、后市", "img": "https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6524055/l/6a250d0af8ec0116919a2ea7c0f3ef66.jpg", "content": "一、今日盘势重点\n<img src=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6524055/l/6a250d0af8ec0116919a2ea7c0f3ef66.jpg\" alt=\"震荡盘更考验选股与节奏、友达、中美晶、智通*⊕\" style=\"width:50%;height:auto;border-radius:6px;margin:15px auto;display:block;\">\n\n\n<ol>\n<li>加权指数开高走低，仍守多头架构\n\n<ul>\n<li>加权指数盘中一度上涨 614 点、最高来到 47,395 点，但受外资持续调节、融资余额攀高、整数关卡卖压，以及市场观望月底 FOMC 会议影响，终场下跌 224 点，收 46,556 点。</li>\n<li>成交量约 1.02 兆元，指数仍稳守 10 日线与月线之上，多头趋势尚未遭破坏。</li>\n</ul>\n</li>\n<li>OTC 同步震荡整理\n<ul>\n<li>柜买指数终场下跌 5.58 点，收 439.8 点，成交量约 3,037 亿元。</li>\n<li>指数同样守稳 10 日线与月线，中小型股短线进入轮动整理阶段。</li>\n</ul>\n</li>\n</ol>\n\n<div>\n<hr></div>\n\n二、后市展望\n\n<ol>\n<li>基本面持续支撑台股多头\n\n<ul>\n<li> AI 需求持续强劲，台湾 5 月外销订单年增 47.2%，创同期新高，官方预估下半年接单仍将维持成长。</li>\n<li>市场普遍预估今年台湾 GDP 可望逼近甚至突破 10%，企业获利仍具上修空间。</li>\n</ul>\n</li>\n<li>超级法说会与财报旺季成为新催化剂\n<ul>\n<li>台积电 (2330-TW)6 月营收、第 2 季获利可望续创历史新高，第 3 季营收仍具双位数成长动能。</li>\n<li>美国科技巨头包括 Tesla、Google、Microsoft 等将陆续公布财报，有助延续 AI 投资热潮。</li>\n</ul>\n</li>\n<li>AI 资本支出持续高速扩张\n<ul>\n<li>北美大型 CSP 持续提高 AI 投资，ASIC、半导体、伺服器、PCB、散热、电源等供应链长线受惠趋势未变。</li>\n<li>AI 已由生成式 AI 逐步迈向 Agentic AI（代理式 AI），带动运算需求持续升级。</li>\n</ul>\n</li>\n<li>资金行情仍有利多头\n<ul>\n<li> ETF 规模持续成长，加上台湾超额储蓄充沛，内资已逐渐成为市场主要支撑力量。</li>\n<li>第一金投顾更预估今年上市柜企业获利可望突破 7 兆元，优于市场普遍预期。</li>\n</ul>\n</li>\n<li>技术面仍偏多\n<ul>\n<li>国际油价回落，市场重新聚焦 AI 及企业获利。</li>\n<li>短线重要支撑持续垫高，只要本周整理后未跌破关键支撑，多头仍有机会续攻 5 万点。</li>\n</ul>\n</li>\n</ol>\n\n<div>\n<hr></div>\n\n三、操作策略\n\n<ol>\n<li>高基期 AI 股避免追价\n\n<ul>\n<li>部分 ASIC、CCL、ABF 载板、设备及高价测试股近期涨幅已大，今日利多不涨甚至转弱，短线仍有修正整理压力。</li>\n<li>在重新站回 10 日线前，策略上绝不可掉以轻心。</li>\n</ul>\n</li>\n<li>聚焦低基期转机与补涨族群\n<ul>\n<li>军工、MOSFET、电源管理 IC、光通讯、导线架、BBU、特殊化学、半导体设备、工具机、面板、封测、数位云端等族群仍维持轮动强势，可持续留意。</li>\n<li>AI 供应链中具基本面改善、法人买盘与产业成长题材个股，仍是中长线布局重心。</li>\n</ul>\n</li>\n<li>投资纪律不变\n<ul>\n<li> (1) 低接、不追高。</li>\n<li>(2) 聚焦「量增突破＋法人／主力买超」个股。</li>\n<li>(3) 以 10 日线及月线作为操作防守依据。</li>\n</ul>\n</li>\n</ol>\n\n四、结论\n\n整体而言，台股今日属于高档震荡整理，主要受到技术面与筹码面干扰，并非基本面转弱。在 AI 长线趋势、企业获利持续创高、全球 AI 资本支出扩张，以及内资资金充沛等利多支撑下，中多格局依然未变。后续只要守稳关键均线并化解短线卖压，台股仍有机会朝 5 万点整数关卡迈进；现阶段仍应以「选股重于选市」，聚焦具成长性、低基期及法人布局的 AI 受惠股，掌握轮动行情带来的投资机会。\n\n<div>\n<hr></div>\n\n高档震荡盘 \n真正决定绩效的，已不再只是看对趋势 \n而是能否掌握选股能力与进出场的节奏 \n全新飙股已经上膛随时要喷出 \n这次一定要紧紧跟上脚步\n\n<a href=\"https://forms.gle/MehdQNarpmFqt47F8\">https://forms.gle/MehdQNarpmFqt47F8</a>\n\n如果你有任何持股上的问题 \n不晓得该如何来处理或调整 \n欢迎加 LINE 私讯大师兄 \n把你的持股状况写清楚 \n留下你的姓名及连络电话 \n大师兄情义相挺来助你一臂之力 \n帮你把不对、不会涨的杂货店股 \n换到对的、未来会大涨的精品股上 \n一个转念就可以改变你的一生 \n由衷希望你在这波 AI 大行情中 \n少走冤枉路、多赚关键财富 \nLINE@连结网址：<a href=\"https://line.me/R/ti/p/@gold99\">https://line.me/R/ti/p/%40gold99</a>\n\n<figure><img data-height=\"276\" data-mime=\"image/jpeg\" data-ratio=\"1.5579710144927537\" data-src-m=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6524055/m/73660344c074f185915273e8a36713d8.jpg\" data-width=\"430\" src=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6524055/m/73660344c074f185915273e8a36713d8.jpg\"></figure>\n\n<figure><img data-height=\"274\" data-mime=\"image/jpeg\" data-ratio=\"1.5693430656934306\" data-src-m=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6524055/m/e99a2813e4e0c98442aaa58da8e6f830.jpg\" data-width=\"430\" src=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6524055/m/e99a2813e4e0c98442aaa58da8e6f830.jpg\"></figure>\n\n<figure><img data-height=\"280\" data-mime=\"image/jpeg\" data-ratio=\"1.5571428571428572\" data-src-m=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6524055/m/917e437441c23b4492277bec4d89732f.jpg\" data-width=\"436\" src=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6524055/m/917e437441c23b4492277bec4d89732f.jpg\"></figure>\n\n<figure><img data-height=\"271\" data-mime=\"image/jpeg\" data-ratio=\"1.6051660516605166\" data-src-m=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6524055/m/39dfc3ec78aefa5442b7cf1ef93d6143.jpg\" data-width=\"435\" src=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6524055/m/39dfc3ec78aefa5442b7cf1ef93d6143.jpg\"></figure>\n\n<figure><img data-height=\"318\" data-mime=\"image/jpeg\" data-ratio=\"1.3836477987421383\" data-src-m=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6524055/m/b7e4faaf8c0be8962e004c72e99e7993.jpg\" data-width=\"440\" src=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6524055/m/b7e4faaf8c0be8962e004c72e99e7993.jpg\"></figure>\n\n<div class=\"youtube-embed-wrapper\" style=\"position:relative;padding-bottom:56.25%;padding-top:30px;height:0;overflow:hidden;\"><iframe allowfullscreen=\"\" frameborder=\"0\" height=\"360\" src=\"//www.youtube.com/embed/uq-14UA9cMo\" style=\"position: absolute;top: 0;left: 0;width: 100%;height: 100%;\" width=\"640\"></iframe></div>\n\n工商时报绩效竞赛 13 冠王、卓越绩效傲视同业、专业实力有目共赌！ \n更多第一手讯息、以及飙股机会→请加入大师兄飙股鑫天地的大家族 \nLINE@连结网址：<a href=\"https://line.me/R/ti/p/@gold99\">https://line.me/R/ti/p/%40gold99</a> \nTelegram 连结网址：<a href=\"https://t.me/gold0999\">https://t.me/gold0999</a> \nYT 个人专属频道：<a href=\"mailto:youtube.com/@master55688\">youtube.com/@master55688</a> \n举手之劳 \n记得！按赞、订阅、分享、开启小铃铛 \n让更多人可以看见我们的影片 \n咨询专线 : 02-2321-9933(24 小时专人服务)\n\n<figure><img data-height=\"520\" data-mime=\"image/png\" data-ratio=\"1.4615384615384615\" data-src-m=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6524055/m/c2d647d39e1b36e509c0f6e263dacab8.jpg\" data-width=\"760\" src=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6524055/l/c2d647d39e1b36e509c0f6e263dacab8.jpg\"></figure>\n\n文章来源：伦元投顾陈学进分析师\n\n本公司所推荐分析之个别有价证券无不当之财务利益关系以往之绩效不保证未来获利投资人应独立判断审慎评估并自负投资风险\n<div class=\"related-articles seo-links\">\n <h4>相关阅读</h4>\n <ul>\n <li><a href=\"/new/tw/article-14244.html\" title=\"辉达砸35亿美元认购联发科ECB、SEMICON登场、0050换股名单出炉本周大事回顾\">辉达砸35亿美元认购联发科ECB、SEMICON登场、0050换股名单出炉本周大事回顾</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/new/tw/article-5705.html\" title=\"台新新光金启动「运动培力计划」林维俊幽默自揭桌球准国手往事\">台新新光金启动「运动培力计划」林维俊幽默自揭桌球准国手往事</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/new/tw/article-2530.html\" title=\"巨亨速报 - Factset 最新调查：景硕(3189-TW)EPS预估上修至9.33元，预估目标价为620元\">巨亨速报 - Factset 最新调查：景硕(3189-TW)EPS预估上修至9.33元，预估目标价为620元</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/new/tw/article-11819.html\" title=\"禾伸堂自结7月纯益年增2倍EPS 1.39元\">禾伸堂自结7月纯益年增2倍EPS 1.39元</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/new/tw/article-8103.html\" title=\"台股千点重挫！下一波资金躲哪里？\">台股千点重挫！下一波资金躲哪里？</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/new/tw/article-13434.html\" 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