本周决定台股下半年命运！3大核弹事件一次引爆

最近你是不是也有一种感觉：明明 AI 趋势没有改变，科技股纷纷缴出亮眼的业绩，但很多绩优股频频出现「今天涨、明天跌」，指数、股价出现剧烈震荡，强势股一天换一批，让不少投资人追高就套、砍低又涨。

所以，如果你最近操作得很不顺，真的不用太气馁，因为环境就是如此！不过这种「多空双巴」盘极可能会结束，因为台股接下来这周，即将迎来多空的「世纪大摊牌」！

决定下半年命运！本周三大「核弹级」考验「核弹级」考验

为什么说本周是摊牌时刻？因为市场上所有的不确定性，全部挤在接下来的几天内要一次引爆。我们直接把重点拆解开来：

第一关：7/14（周二）：美国公布最新 CPI 数据

通膨数据向来是联准会降息与否的「终极风向球」，只要数字有一丁点不对劲，美股震荡绝对会扩大，到时指标股美光 (MU-US) 或辉达 (NVDA-US) 一有风吹草动，外资周三肯定会在台股掀起大浪。

第二关：7/15（周三）：台指期货大结算

多空双方在四万六千点附近纠缠了这么久，外资 8 万空单筹码到底要往哪里压？周三结算就是掀底牌的时候。

第三关：7/16（周四）：台积电 (2330-TW) 法说会

这绝对是全台湾、甚至是全球科技业的重头戏！市场现在都在紧盯晶圆代工龙头的资本支出有没有机会再往上冲，还有先进封装 CoWoS 的产能到底扩得够不够快。这场法说会讲出来的话，将直接决定下半年 AI 供应链是继续开外挂，还是要进入中场休息。

多空关键密码：46313 是生死线

既然大风大浪要来了，我们必须看懂大盘给我们的密码。而上述三大事件都会反应在股价上，现在台股的关键就在于「必须站稳 46313 点」！只要指数能成功站上去，再加上日线的 MACD 柱状体出现「收脚」信号，并在未来几天顺利由绿翻红，那么恭喜大家、恭喜多头！台股届时非常有机会复制今年 4/8 那波锐不可当的喷出行情！

不过，相反的也要留意风险。本周请大家务必把这三个支撑区写在便利贴上：46097、45880、45700。多头要强，最好就是开高之后死守这些关卡。如果本周不小心连续跌破这三个支撑，那就代表技术面被破坏，没办法立刻转成强势多头。就算上述三大重点（CPI、结算、法说）开出来的结果很漂亮，我们还是要冷静观察，市场的真金白银「有没有实质站稳压力区」。

选股关键：避开马力值 < 9 的车，改搭筹码特快车

所以接下来选股就变成最重要的课题。股票交易的本质，说穿了就是「利润与风险的比值」。很多人以为，只要搭上 AI 就是好股票。其实未必。最近盘面的最大特色，就是个股轮动速度极快。昨天最强，今天可能变最弱；昨天人人看好，今天主力可能已经开始调节。因此，现在，比起追热门股，更重要的是避开「马力不足」的股票

目前观察到不少热门股票，马力值已经低于 9，甚至部分个股已降至 0，代表筹码动能明显不足

当市场轮动速度像跑车一样快时，你如果挑到一台「没马力」的车，人家在喷出，你只会在原地吸废气；人家在拉回，你跌得比谁都重。在江江团队的操作逻辑里，有一套严格的筛选机制。请大家务必避开「马力值小于 9 匹」、甚至很多档现在马力是「0 匹」的弱势股。

需要留意风险的「低马力」名单：

鸿海 (2317-TW)、联发科 (2454-TW)、奇𬭎 (3017-TW)、华城 (1519-TW)、富世达 (6805-TW)、新日兴 (3376-TW)、双鸿 (3324-TW)、贸联 - KY(3665-TW)、创意 (3443-TW)、世芯 - KY(3661-TW)、旺宏 (2337-TW)、华通 (2313-TW)、世界 (5347-TW)、光洋科 (1785-TW)、金居 (8358-TW)、新唐 (4919-TW)、台表科 (6278-TW)、全新 (2455-TW)、环宇 - KY(4991-TW)、健鼎 (3044-TW)、矽力 *-KY(6415-TW)、德宏 (5475-TW)、致茂 (2360-TW)、青云 (5386-TW)、富乔 (1815-TW)、元晶 (6443-TW)、泰鼎 - KY(4927-TW)、瑞轩 (2489-TW)、台嘉硕 (3221-TW)、晶技 (3042-TW)、鼎元 (2426-TW)、汉磊 (3707-TW)、台燿 (6274-TW)。

这些股票不是基本面不好，而是目前的「技术筹码面」正在进入调整期。短线洗盘时，主力资金正在悄悄撤出，这时候进去接刀子，很容易受伤。

相反地，此时我们应该把焦点锁定在「筹码结构好、具备向上潜力」的个股上：例如马力值 > 9 的潜力股

钰创 (5351-TW)、盛群 (5471-TW)、丽台 (2465-TW)、友达 (2409-TW)、和大 (1536-TW)、晶豪科 (3006-TW)、顺达 (3211-TW)、钛升 (8027-TW)、一诠 (2486-TW)、正达 (3149-TW)。

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文章来源：摩尔投顾－江国中分析师

本公司所推荐分析之个别有价证券无不当之财务利益关系以往之绩效不保证未来获利投资人应独立判断审慎评估并自负投资风险

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KY(3665-TW)、创意 (3443-TW)、世芯 - KY(3661-TW)、旺宏 (2337-TW)、华通 (2313-TW)、世界 (5347-TW)、光洋科 (1785-TW)、金居 (8358-TW)、新唐 (4919-TW)、台表科 (6278-TW)、全新 (2455-TW)、环宇 - KY(4991-TW)、健鼎 (3044-TW)、矽力 *-KY(6415-TW)、德宏 (5475-TW)、致茂 (2360-TW)、青云 (5386-TW)、富乔 (1815-TW)、元晶 (6443-TW)、泰鼎 - KY(4927-TW)、瑞轩 (2489-TW)、台嘉硕 (3221-TW)、晶技 (3042-TW)、鼎元 (2426-TW)、汉磊 (3707-TW)、台燿 (6274-TW)。\n\n这些股票不是基本面不好，而是目前的「技术筹码面」正在进入调整期。短线洗盘时，主力资金正在悄悄撤出，这时候进去接刀子，很容易受伤。\n\n相反地，此时我们应该把焦点锁定在「筹码结构好、具备向上潜力」的个股上：例如马力值 > 9 的潜力股\n\n钰创 (5351-TW)、盛群 (5471-TW)、丽台 (2465-TW)、友达 (2409-TW)、和大 (1536-TW)、晶豪科 (3006-TW)、顺达 (3211-TW)、钛升 (8027-TW)、一诠 (2486-TW)、正达 (3149-TW)。\n\n更多产业趋势报告 + 盘中讯息→请加入江江 Line@：\n\n<a href=\"https://lin.ee/vTaRqlQ\">https://lin.ee/vTaRqlQ</a>\n\n江江每日解盘影片→含金量满满，节目内容太精彩 + 太权威惹！\n\n坚持用心制作优质好节目，一定要看到最后！\n\n并且【订阅 + 按赞 + 分享帮助好友】\n\n<a href=\"https://youtu.be/VWNWfe6YRFA\">https://youtu.be/VWNWfe6YRFA</a>\n\n文章来源：摩尔投顾－江国中分析师\n\n本公司所推荐分析之个别有价证券无不当之财务利益关系以往之绩效不保证未来获利投资人应独立判断审慎评估并自负投资风险\n<div class=\"related-articles seo-links\">\n <h4>相关阅读</h4>\n <ul>\n <li><a href=\"/new/tw/article-16353.html\" title=\"〈房产〉利率连冻且对房市释善意商仲：商用市场迎战2.895%收益门槛\">〈房产〉利率连冻且对房市释善意商仲：商用市场迎战2.895%收益门槛</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/new/tw/article-5897.html\" title=\"营收速报 - 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