国际AI指标股重挫，新风险在酝酿！最新操作策略建议

AI 大型语言模型（LLM）快速发展，使全球云端服务供应商持续扩大资本支出，带动 AI 资料中心建置需求快速攀升。根据 UBS 最新研究，全球资料中心设备市场成长率由原先预估再度上修，2026 年可望年增 25%、2027 年年增 20%，2028 年至 2030 年仍可维持 10~15% 的双位数成长，显示 AI 基础建设投资仍处于长期上升循环。

而根据摩根大通的报告，在 2021 年至 2024 年底期间，资讯处理设备与软体对 GDP 的贡献相对稳定，维持在 500 亿美元以下（贡献率介于 0.0% 至 0.5% 之间），2025 年至 2026 年 AI 资本支出大增，跟消费支出成为美国 GDP 增长的双引擎。而 The Kobeissi Letter 的报告，2025 年 AI 资本支出的占 GDP 的比重 1.5%，2026 年预估升至 2.5%，2027 年将再成长。如果根据瑞银的报告来看，至 2030 年 AI 资本支出都将是推动美国 GDP 增长的重要动力。

频道连结 https://www.youtube.com/@money66868

之前有提过美国 GDP 与标普 500 指数长期正相关，两者的长期趋势都是「震荡向上」。美国 GDP 增长时，往往都能转化为标普 500 成分股公司的营业额与 EPS 提升，美国企业的获利成长，则成为美股上涨的动能，当然短期与中期美国 GDP 与标普 500 指数或许会出现背离走势，但长期趋势则是高度相关。

台厂作为美国企业的重要伙伴，自然受惠于美国企业的成长，尤其是本波 AI 产业中，台厂的重要性与贡献又再度提升，投资朋友不可错过这次机会，但大盘近三个交易日在月线之下横向整理，腾落指标却连续走低，中小型股震荡大，近期较为强势的被动元件、功率半导体都成为近期修正的标的，今日卖压更重，上周已经提醒除非出现转强讯号，否则不建议进场，投资朋友应可避开。

7/8 文章「台积电与金融股撑指数！？暗潮汹涌下的投资策略」已经提醒投资朋友，目前投资难度大增，此时应该采取相对保守策略。且近期国际重要 AI 指标股也下跌，日股揖斐电 (IBIDEN) 今日跌逾 6%，股价创一个月新低；太阳诱电跌逾 12%，股价创五月底以来新低；三星跌逾 7%，股价创五月初以来新低；海力士跌逾 12%，股价创一个月新低。这波市场震荡不只是在台股，国际金融市场也同样，因此，再度提醒投资朋友，目前一定要降低杠杆操作，并且增加现金比例，避开市场风险。

投资朋友也不用过度担心，台股将会如美股一般，长线趋势往上，但短中期的风险要避开，暂时先提高现金部位。选股方面，可留意 6 月营收及 Q2 获利爆发的产业与个股，并留意技术面落底或转强讯号，及相关产业的国际指标股走势，下方提供 6 月营收题材股，另外，还有哪些可留意的产业与个股？欢迎加入 Line @

6 月营收题材股如下：

半导体：创意 (3443-TW)、万润 (6187-TW)、鸿劲 (7769-TW)、京鼎 (3413-TW)、群联 (8299-TW)、南亚科 (2408-TW)、华邦电 (2344-TW)

PCB：台光电 (2383-TW)、联茂 (6213-TW)、臻鼎 - KY(4958-TW)、南电 (8046-TW)

网通：智邦 (2345-TW)、启碁 (6285-TW)

AI：颖崴 (6515-TW)、尖点 (8021-TW)、川湖 (2059-TW)、营邦 (3693-TW)、松川 (7788-TW)、国巨 *(2327-TW)、闳康 (3587-TW)

更多产业趋势预告 + 盘中讯息→

都在叶老师的 Line @：
LINE@ID：@money668 (@要记得加)

https://user225916.pse.is/money668

叶老师每日分析解盘节目及每周一晚上 58 台非凡新闻台「前线百分百」→ 最权威、最专业的节目内容，实在太重要 + 太精彩 + 太专业了！

频道连结：https://www.youtube.com/@money66868

务必锁定专业制作的优质节目，一定要看到最后！

并且【订阅 + 按赞 + 分享帮助好友】

文章来源：摩尔投顾－叶俊敏分析师

本公司所推荐分析之个别有价证券
无不当之财务利益关系以往之绩效不保证未来获利
投资人应独立判断审慎评估并自负投资风险

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KY(4958-TW)、南电 (8046-TW)\n\n网通：智邦 (2345-TW)、启碁 (6285-TW)\n\nAI：颖崴 (6515-TW)、尖点 (8021-TW)、川湖 (2059-TW)、营邦 (3693-TW)、松川 (7788-TW)、国巨 *(2327-TW)、闳康 (3587-TW)\n\n更多产业趋势预告 + 盘中讯息→\n\n都在叶老师的 Line @： \nLINE@ID：@money668 (@要记得加)\n\n<a href=\"https://user225916.pse.is/money668\">https://user225916.pse.is/money668</a>\n\n叶老师每日分析解盘节目及每周一晚上 58 台非凡新闻台「前线百分百」→ 最权威、最专业的节目内容，实在太重要 + 太精彩 + 太专业了！\n\n频道连结：<a href=\"https://www.youtube.com/@money66868\">https://www.youtube.com/@money66868</a>\n\n务必锁定专业制作的优质节目，一定要看到最后！\n\n并且【订阅 + 按赞 + 分享帮助好友】\n\n文章来源：摩尔投顾－叶俊敏分析师\n\n本公司所推荐分析之个别有价证券 \n无不当之财务利益关系以往之绩效不保证未来获利 \n投资人应独立判断审慎评估并自负投资风险\n<div class=\"related-articles seo-links\">\n <h4>相关阅读</h4>\n <ul>\n <li><a href=\"/new/tw/article-16477.html\" title=\"台马第四海缆完工启用数发部强化马祖通讯韧性\">台马第四海缆完工启用数发部强化马祖通讯韧性</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/new/tw/article-13518.html\" title=\"00981A配息开奖前股价强涨3%站上30元大关达人三招指路\">00981A配息开奖前股价强涨3%站上30元大关达人三招指路</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/new/tw/article-7532.html\" title=\"巨亨速报 - Factset 最新调查：欣兴(3037-TW)EPS预估上修至15.75元，预估目标价为1175元\">巨亨速报 - 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