魏哲家总裁愈来愈短的法说会回应，不利法说会表现

台积电财务数据持续强劲，营益率展望是唯一缺憾；

财务成绩重点，与主观分析:

毛利率再度达财测高标，卖方普遍估 67~67.5%，但多家机构月初先行乐观调升预期，认为有望突破 68%，因此营业利润 / 税前利润大约符合法人预期。EPS 高于预期主要来自于业外贡献的预期差异。

→OCF7830 亿再创新高，CapEx 4960 亿创新高，且明显激增，相较过往 Q4、Q1 较高的惯性改变，主因是 HPC 已经完全主导台积电的营运，占比高达 66%，AI 加速器换代并不像手机 AP 新机发布固定。因此节奏遭到改变。同时 2026 原资本支出预期 520~560 亿美元，也出现罕见的年中追加上调，调整为 600~640 亿美元，总和上述，新增项目，主要流向 CoPoS、CoWoS、与部分 N3 加速投资

→公司财测偏保守众所周知，但毛利率展望季增上调 0.5%，营益率却季增下调 0.5%，导致 56~58% 财测，远低于市场 60~60.5% 的预期。撇除 Q2 受惠 5347 世界股权处分及市值重估利益 632 亿，约当贡献业外 2.43 元外，Q3 营运费用与支出，仍有稍稍高估，是本次财务数据上的唯一缺憾。

→法人问答集中议题: 先进封装等竞争压力、美国额外 1000 亿资本支出规划

过度简短回应，法说会后很难给予利多叙事

定性分析提供一些主观想法: 补充一个潜在担忧
台积电法说会面对分析师的提问，回应明显愈来愈简短，不是说一定要提供精确数字或展望，至少 give more color! 纵使面对到千篇一律的问题 (ex: AI 展望如何? 何时供需平衡?)，除了很强劲、无法提供精确数据等用词与回复以外，可以更多得说一些故事与举例，多用形容词少用数字，相信对高层也可避免被事后检视的压力，但换句话说，有总比没有好。一个直观的数字，台积电安排 14:00~15:10 的法说会，过往 8 位左右的分析师提问，这次暴增至 11 个分析师提问，原因就是反映在每个问答都很短，所以塞得下更多分析师提问，其实是负面现象。

笔者认为这对于台积电的短波段的「法说会行情」非常不利，过往提前押宝甚至资金控盘不杀台积电 (这次其实也是)，如果法说会行情次次失灵，那会导致的是每每短期拉高后，法说会后回档，进而影响到之后，机构法人再押宝法说会的意愿也不高，因为除了缴出好财报以外，法说与展望很难做文章，给予利多的题材。以长线而言，好公司还是好公司，并不影响长线评价，但短线法说会与惯性控盘会有资金反噬，如果台积电高层，尤其魏哲家总裁仍持续这样进行法说会，那以上的剧本，之后恐怕仍会频繁发生。

（撰文者：永诚资产管理处分析师范振峰）

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"list.html", "articleView": "article.html", "seoTitle": "", "seoKeywords": "", "seoDescription": "", "type": "0", "dataConfig": null, "level": 1 }, "article": { "id": 7170, "cid": 27, "subCid": null, "title": "魏哲家总裁愈来愈短的法说会回应，不利法说会表现", "shortTitle": "魏哲家总裁愈来愈短的法说会回应，不利法说会表现", "tagId": "", "attr": "", "articleView": null, "source": null, "author": "网络", "description": "台积电财务数据持续强劲，营益率展望是唯一缺憾；财务成绩重点，与主观分析: 毛利率再度达财测高标，卖方普遍估 67~67.5%，但多家机构月初先行乐观调升预期，认为有望突破 68%，因此营业利润 / 税前利润大约符合法人预期。EPS 高于预期主要来自于业外贡献的预期差异。 →OCF7830 亿再创新高，CapEx 4960 亿创新高，且明显激增，相较过往 Q4、Q1 较高的惯性改变，主因是 HPC 已经完全主导台积电的营运，占比高达 66%，AI 加速器换代并不像手机 AP 新机发布固", "img": "https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6538721/l/ca5fa9fee2938e2d215cefe75b558bf1.jpg", "content": "台积电财务数据持续强劲，营益率展望是唯一缺憾；\n<img src=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6538721/l/ca5fa9fee2938e2d215cefe75b558bf1.jpg\" alt=\"魏哲家总裁愈来愈短的法说会回应，不利法说会表现\" style=\"width:50%;height:auto;border-radius:6px;margin:15px auto;display:block;\">\n\n\n<figure><img data-height=\"173\" data-mime=\"image/png\" data-ratio=\"4.393063583815029\" data-src-m=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6538721/m/3017b5c3c6a942a97f9c9d8031a516f8.jpg\" data-width=\"760\" src=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6538721/l/3017b5c3c6a942a97f9c9d8031a516f8.jpg\" srcset=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6538721/l/3017b5c3c6a942a97f9c9d8031a516f8.jpg 1x,https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6538721/xl/3017b5c3c6a942a97f9c9d8031a516f8.jpg 2x,https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6538721/xxl/3017b5c3c6a942a97f9c9d8031a516f8.jpg 3x\"></figure>\n\n<figure><img data-height=\"292\" data-mime=\"image/png\" data-ratio=\"2.6027397260273974\" data-src-m=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6538721/m/48e9c88235c0a5eacf6c150258e6914a.jpg\" data-width=\"760\" src=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6538721/l/48e9c88235c0a5eacf6c150258e6914a.jpg\" srcset=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6538721/l/48e9c88235c0a5eacf6c150258e6914a.jpg 1x,https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6538721/xl/48e9c88235c0a5eacf6c150258e6914a.jpg 2x,https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6538721/xxl/48e9c88235c0a5eacf6c150258e6914a.jpg 3x\"></figure>\n\n财务成绩重点，与主观分析:\n\n<figure><img data-height=\"282\" data-mime=\"image/png\" data-ratio=\"2.6950354609929077\" data-src-m=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6538721/m/3f13af84c82913d00830ab120cf3be77.jpg\" data-width=\"760\" src=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6538721/l/3f13af84c82913d00830ab120cf3be77.jpg\" srcset=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6538721/l/3f13af84c82913d00830ab120cf3be77.jpg 1x,https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6538721/xl/3f13af84c82913d00830ab120cf3be77.jpg 2x,https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6538721/xxl/3f13af84c82913d00830ab120cf3be77.jpg 3x\"></figure>\n\n毛利率再度达财测高标，卖方普遍估 67~67.5%，但多家机构月初先行乐观调升预期，认为有望突破 68%，因此营业利润 / 税前利润大约符合法人预期。EPS 高于预期主要来自于业外贡献的预期差异。\n\n→OCF7830 亿再创新高，CapEx 4960 亿创新高，且明显激增，相较过往 Q4、Q1 较高的惯性改变，主因是 HPC 已经完全主导台积电的营运，占比高达 66%，AI 加速器换代并不像手机 AP 新机发布固定。因此节奏遭到改变。同时 2026 原资本支出预期 520~560 亿美元，也出现罕见的年中追加上调，调整为 600~640 亿美元，总和上述，新增项目，主要流向 CoPoS、CoWoS、与部分 N3 加速投资 \n\n→公司财测偏保守众所周知，但毛利率展望季增上调 0.5%，营益率却季增下调 0.5%，导致 56~58% 财测，远低于市场 60~60.5% 的预期。撇除 Q2 受惠 5347 世界股权处分及市值重估利益 632 亿，约当贡献业外 2.43 元外，Q3 营运费用与支出，仍有稍稍高估，是本次财务数据上的唯一缺憾。\n\n→法人问答集中议题: 先进封装等竞争压力、美国额外 1000 亿资本支出规划\n\n过度简短回应，法说会后很难给予利多叙事\n\n定性分析提供一些主观想法: 补充一个潜在担忧 \n台积电法说会面对分析师的提问，回应明显愈来愈简短，不是说一定要提供精确数字或展望，至少 give more color! 纵使面对到千篇一律的问题 (ex: AI 展望如何? 何时供需平衡?)，除了很强劲、无法提供精确数据等用词与回复以外，可以更多得说一些故事与举例，多用形容词少用数字，相信对高层也可避免被事后检视的压力，但换句话说，有总比没有好。一个直观的数字，台积电安排 14:00~15:10 的法说会，过往 8 位左右的分析师提问，这次暴增至 11 个分析师提问，原因就是反映在每个问答都很短，所以塞得下更多分析师提问，其实是负面现象。\n\n笔者认为这对于台积电的短波段的「法说会行情」非常不利，过往提前押宝甚至资金控盘不杀台积电 (这次其实也是)，如果法说会行情次次失灵，那会导致的是每每短期拉高后，法说会后回档，进而影响到之后，机构法人再押宝法说会的意愿也不高，因为除了缴出好财报以外，法说与展望很难做文章，给予利多的题材。以长线而言，好公司还是好公司，并不影响长线评价，但短线法说会与惯性控盘会有资金反噬，如果台积电高层，尤其魏哲家总裁仍持续这样进行法说会，那以上的剧本，之后恐怕仍会频繁发生。\n\n（撰文者：永诚资产管理处分析师范振峰）\n\n点击下图【60 秒测试你的理财天赋有几分？】\n\n<figure><a href=\"https://quiz.big-econ.com/index.php?&QID=6\"><img data-height=\"190\" data-mime=\"image/png\" data-ratio=\"4\" data-src-m=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6538721/m/6c70898f7bc134a7701458d6e730ba3e.jpg\" data-width=\"760\" src=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6538721/l/6c70898f7bc134a7701458d6e730ba3e.jpg\" srcset=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6538721/l/6c70898f7bc134a7701458d6e730ba3e.jpg 1x,https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6538721/xl/6c70898f7bc134a7701458d6e730ba3e.jpg 2x,https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6538721/xxl/6c70898f7bc134a7701458d6e730ba3e.jpg 3x\"></a></figure>\n\n「永诚资产管理处」是全台合法拥有金管字号的证券投资顾问公司中「唯一首创资产管理的部门」，20 年深耕专营台湾各大科技园区，以认真、诚信思维提供客户服务，让努力累积财富的你，也可贴身感受理财管家的 VIP 价值。\n\n没有代理金融商品，不以商品销售出发，减少你的财务漏洞！从资产配置出发，透过「专案客制化」、「服务精致化」、「获利系统化」，你不需牺牲时间体力，就能感受到资产提升！\n\n「卓越投资研究团队」加「顶尖财务顾问团队」共同与客户缔造里程碑 \n▪立即加入 <a href=\"https://line.me/R/ti/p/%40asset88598\">https://line.me/R/ti/p/%40asset88598</a> \n▪进一步了解资产管理处 <a href=\"https://www.ycam.com.tw/\">https://www.ycam.com.tw/</a> \n▪收听「资产汇谈」Podcast <a href=\"https://reurl.cc/nYeRQ8\">https://reurl.cc/nYeRQ8</a>\n\n（撰文者：永诚资产管理处分析师范振峰）\n\n填写永诚资产管理处表单 \n【索取懒人包】抓住 AI 投资契机让财富搭上火箭\n\n<a href=\"https://www.surveycake.com/s/YlxXA\">https://www.surveycake.com/s/YlxXA</a>\n\n60 秒测试你的理财天赋有几分？\n\n<a href=\"https://quiz.big-econ.com/index.php?&QID=6\">https://quiz.big-econ.com/index.php?&QID=6</a>\n\n「永诚资产管理处」是全台合法拥有金管字号的证券投资顾问公司中「唯一首创资产管理的部门」，20 年深耕专营台湾各大科技园区，以认真、诚信思维提供客户服务，让努力累积财富的你，也可贴身感受理财管家的 VIP 价值。\n\n没有代理金融商品，不以商品销售出发，减少你的财务漏洞！从资产配置出发，透过「专案客制化」、「服务精致化」、「获利系统化」，你不需牺牲时间体力，就能感受到资产提升！\n\n「卓越投资研究团队」加「顶尖财务顾问团队」共同与客户缔造里程碑 \n▪立即加入 <a href=\"https://line.me/R/ti/p/%40asset88598\">https://line.me/R/ti/p/%40asset88598</a>\n\n<figure><img data-height=\"197\" data-mime=\"image/png\" data-ratio=\"3.5431472081218276\" data-src-m=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6538721/m/db1582c6282365c945c658918556473c.jpg\" data-width=\"698\" src=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6538721/l/db1582c6282365c945c658918556473c.jpg\"></figure>\n\n▪进一步了解资产管理处 <a href=\"https://www.ycam.com.tw/\">https://www.ycam.com.tw/</a> \n▪阅读更多精彩文章 <a href=\"https://www.facebook.com/yongchengasset\">https://www.facebook.com/yongchengasset</a> \n▪观看更多精彩影片 \n<a href=\"https://m.youtube.com/channel/UCXhFwgxQL_LBuhK43YEqWmQ\">https://m.youtube.com/channel/UCXhFwgxQL_LBuhK43YEqWmQ</a> \n▪阅读更多精彩文章 <a href=\"https://www.facebook.com/yongchengasset\">https://www.facebook.com/yongchengasset</a>\n\n本公司所分析个别有价证券仅供参考，投资人应独立判断，审慎评估并自负投资风险。\n<div class=\"related-articles seo-links\">\n <h4>相关阅读</h4>\n <ul>\n <li><a href=\"/new/tw/article-6354.html\" title=\"营收速报 - 岳丰(6220)6月营收10.59亿元年增率高达57.98％\">营收速报 - 岳丰(6220)6月营收10.59亿元年增率高达57.98％</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/new/tw/article-11975.html\" title=\"〈晶技展望〉AI及车由产品组合朝有利趋势发展 7月毛利率回升到36%\">〈晶技展望〉AI及车由产品组合朝有利趋势发展 7月毛利率回升到36%</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/new/tw/article-10951.html\" title=\"车用透镜与AI伺服器双引擎发威雷笛克光学Q3营运看好更上层楼\">车用透镜与AI伺服器双引擎发威雷笛克光学Q3营运看好更上层楼</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/new/tw/article-2436.html\" title=\"迎战量子破密危机！金管会发布金融业迁移指引 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