台股强弹是假象？没看懂这讯号，小心再套10%！

上周五台股创下历史最大跌点！这波大跌，与其说基本面出问题，不如说是亚股集体去杠杆引发的超跌现象。想像一下：韩股因为 2 倍、3 倍杠杆 ETF 失控，像骨牌一样倒下，外资原本想在南韩调节部位却卖不掉，只好转向流动性最好的台股和日股狂抛售。这就是为什么台股跌得比想像中还惨的主因。

历史数据不会骗人：暴跌隔壁住暴利

德国投资大师科斯托兰尼那句经典：「下跌的时候手中没有小麦的人，未来小麦大涨的时候，也不会有小麦。」如果你因为重挫害怕而把手中的核心持股乱砍在阿呆谷，我敢说：等到 8、9 月台股再度喷出的时候，你只能眼睁睁看着别人大赚。

AI 还是唯一王道！台积电与四大钻石产业的逆袭

根据护国神山最新的法说会与公开财报，台积电 (2330-TW) 虽然短期毛利率因为季节性因素微幅调整，但台积电竟然再度上修了资本支出！这代表什么？大厂的科技刚需「无可撼动」。回顾历史，台积电每次回到季线附近，往往都是长线最甜的「上帝给的礼物」。随着 7 月底到 8 月第一周，大部分的 AI 族群即将迎来「扣三低」讯号，务必锁定以下四大钻石产业放入你的自选股清单：

1. 半导体大军（台积电供应链、记忆体）

台积电在特定价格区间以下长线布局，赢面极大，旗下的设备、厂务与先进封装供应链将同步受惠。另外，记忆体产业第三季合约价看涨，南亚科 (2408-TW)、华邦电(2344-TW) 在修正跌出价差后，反而是绝佳的进场点。

2. 被动元件与 PCB 载板

AI 伺服器全面升级，导致 MLCC 的用量直接暴增 8 倍！国巨 (2327-TW)、华新科(2492-TW)、日电贸(3090-TW)、蜜望实(8043-TW) 在修正完过大的正乖离后，机会再度浮现。而 PCB 与载板三雄中的欣兴(3037-TW)、南电(8046-TW)、臻鼎 - KY(4958-TW)，预计在 8 月将迎来真正的主升段。

3. 法人与大户默默吃货的密码

除了产业趋势，筹码不会骗人。近期我们从上周数据可以发现，有三大势力正低调布局特定个股：

外资青睐：华星光 (4979-TW)、立隆电 (2472-TW)
投信守护：中美晶 (5483-TW)、国精化 (4722-TW)
大户锁定：IET-KY(4971-TW)、一诠 (2486-TW)、庆腾 (4534-TW)

关键操作：救命的「落底四部曲」没出现前，别乱动！

虽然我非常看好 8 月份的大反攻，但一切还是要看证据来操作！周一如果台股出现报复性强弹千点，千万、千万不要热血冲昏头去追高！真正的落底不是一天完成的，它需要经过「急跌、盘底、缺口、起攻」的四部曲。请把以下这套「落底救命讯号」当作你的风控 SOP：

K 线与缺口：无论是 60 分线或日线，必须出现「跳空缺口 + 三天内不回补」，或者日线收出带量长红、长下影线，才代表主力真的花真金白银来护盘了。
汇率风向球：新台币必须止贬回升，这代表外资的资金不再外逃，愿意回头拥抱台股。
筹码净化：如果单日大涨，当天的融资「绝对不能同步大增」，筹码必须保持干净。
外资期货空单与选择权避险部位明显下降，显示市场风险偏好改善。

只有上述这几个条件逐步到位，台股才更有机会正式展开新一波攻势。

更多产业趋势报告 + 盘中讯息→请加入江江 Line@：

https://lin.ee/vTaRqlQ

江江每日解盘影片→含金量满满，节目内容太精彩 + 太权威惹！

坚持用心制作优质好节目，一定要看到最后！

并且【订阅 + 按赞 + 分享帮助好友】

文章来源：摩尔投顾－江国中分析师

本公司所推荐分析之个别有价证券无不当之财务利益关系以往之绩效不保证未来获利投资人应独立判断审慎评估并自负投资风险

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