全球去杠杆引爆「股灾体感」！成交量大减，当你放弃时，有人悄悄进场这产业

美国超级财报季开启后，标普 500 指数已有 27% 公司公布 2026 年第二季财报。其中，86% 的 EPS 高于预期，高于五年平均 78% 和十年平均值 76%。已公布公司公布的收益比预期高出 39.3%，但扣除 Alphabet，则由 39.3% 大幅降至 12.6%。

美国企业财报表现优异，过往往往带动美股的走升，但本波投资人的感受则大不同，主要在于本波由韩国开始引发的全球去杠杆，美国的重压在半导体，亚洲则是半导体与 AI 零组件供应链。

以下是至上周五 (7/24) 为止近一个月涨跌幅统计：
标普 500 指数跌 0.38%
道琼指数跌 0.45%
那斯达克指数跌 3.27%
费半指数跌 12.18%
罗素 200 指数跌 2.67%

如果加上亚洲股市统计如下：
韩国综合指数跌 23.0%
日经指数跌 5.84%
日经半导体指数跌 22.86%
台股上市指数跌 5.19%
台股上柜指数跌 14.58%

更多的投资策略与选股资讯都在－
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由于三星与 SK 海力士的权值比重合计已超过南韩股市的 50%，甚至一度高达 70%，所以本波全球半导体的修正，就直接反应在南韩综合指数的表现上。

台股则是有台积电撑盘，至上周五近一个月跌 1.67%，另外，金融类股指数也仅小跌 0.5%。台积电与金融股撑住指数，但中小型股拉回，这也是台股大盘仅跌 5.19%，但投资朋友却有面对股灾的体感。

市场预计美国超大规模资料中心营运商 (CSP)，今年在资本支出上花费约 7,600 亿美元，但在其 2026 年的损益表中只会摊提约 2,110 亿美元的折旧。并且市场预估 2027-2030 年的资本支出还会成长，未来的折旧压力更大。并且造成自由现金流大幅下降，甚至转负，借贷压力增，市场担忧会影响未来超大规模资料中心营运商的资本支出计划，也因此半导体与 AI 零组件供应成为本波市场杀盘重心。

但 CSP 的资本支出规划是有所依据，如下：
Alphabet 的积压订单达 5,100 亿美元
微软的积压订单达 6,300 亿美元
亚马逊的积压订单达 3,700 亿美元
甲骨文的积压订单 6,380 亿美元

从积压订单的角度来看，CSP 的资本支出再合理的规画内，并且云端业务的收入随着资本支出高成长，资本支出计划不会轻易转向，从产业的角度来看，投资朋友不用过度悲观。

但全球市场目前面临两个紧缩压力，韩国去杠杆引发的全球去杠杆，减少市场买盘。美国十年国债殖利率上周创今年新高，这影响金融资产定价与借贷成本。去杠杆可以使市场不会过度投机，反而使市场健康，投资朋友该留意的是『美债殖利率』的后续走势。

台股 42,000 点为大型支撑区，指数低档空间有限。本波全球去杠杆之后，台股成交量也开始收缩，将会有利于筹码沉淀，另外，包含费半指数与韩国股市如果出现修正，都是台股利空测底的机会。昨日 (7/27) 台股收长下影线，费半利空之下，出现买盘进场，领先大盘翻红的个股，也都是投资朋友可以追踪的产业与个股。

本波市场修正，许多个股已经下跌 30%，甚至 50%，来到低位阶，并导致绩优股也受牵连，会员已经开始锁定低位阶绩优股进场，有哪些产业与个股值得留意？更多的资讯，欢迎加入 Line @

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文章来源：摩尔投顾－叶俊敏分析师

本公司所推荐分析之个别有价证券无不当之财务利益关系以往之绩效不保证未来获利投资人应独立判断审慎评估并自负投资风险

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"/whhq" } ], "cate": { "id": 27, "pid": 15, "name": "台股", "pinyin": "tw", "path": "/new/tw", "orderBy": 0, "target": "0", "status": "0", "listView": "list.html", "articleView": "article.html", "seoTitle": "", "seoKeywords": "", "seoDescription": "", "type": "0", "dataConfig": null, "level": 1 }, "article": { "id": 8398, "cid": 27, "subCid": null, "title": "全球去杠杆引爆「股灾体感」！成交量大减，当你放弃时，有人悄悄进场这产业", "shortTitle": "全球去杠杆引爆「股灾体感」！成交量大减，当你放弃时，有人悄悄", "tagId": "", "attr": "", "articleView": null, "source": null, "author": "网络", "description": "美国超级财报季开启后，标普 500 指数已有 27% 公司公布 2026 年第二季财报。其中，86% 的 EPS 高于预期，高于五年平均 78% 和十年平均值 76%。已公布公司公布的收益比预期高出 39.3%，但扣除 Alphabet，则由 39.3% 大幅降至 12.6%。美国企业财报表现优异，过往往往带动美股的走升，但本波投资人的感受则大不同，主要在于本波由韩国开始引发的全球去杠杆，美国的重压在半导体，亚洲则是半导体与 AI 零组件供应链。以下是至上周五 (7/24) 为止近一个月涨跌", "img": "https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6546650/l/3953d0d27c68b4671802399b5e839f8a.jpg", "content": "美国超级财报季开启后，标普 500 指数已有 27% 公司公布 2026 年第二季财报。其中，86% 的 EPS 高于预期，高于五年平均 78% 和十年平均值 76%。已公布公司公布的收益比预期高出 39.3%，但扣除 Alphabet，则由 39.3% 大幅降至 12.6%。\n<img src=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6546650/l/3953d0d27c68b4671802399b5e839f8a.jpg\" alt=\"全球去杠杆引爆「股灾体感」！成交量大减，当你放弃时，有人悄悄进场这产业\" style=\"width:50%;height:auto;border-radius:6px;margin:15px auto;display:block;\">\n\n\n美国企业财报表现优异，过往往往带动美股的走升，但本波投资人的感受则大不同，主要在于本波由韩国开始引发的全球去杠杆，美国的重压在半导体，亚洲则是半导体与 AI 零组件供应链。\n\n以下是至上周五 (7/24) 为止近一个月涨跌幅统计： \n标普 500 指数跌 0.38% \n道琼指数跌 0.45% \n那斯达克指数跌 3.27% \n费半指数跌 12.18% \n罗素 200 指数跌 2.67%\n\n如果加上亚洲股市统计如下： \n韩国综合指数跌 23.0% \n日经指数跌 5.84% \n日经半导体指数跌 22.86% \n台股上市指数跌 5.19% \n台股上柜指数跌 14.58%\n\n更多的投资策略与选股资讯都在－ \nLINE@ <a href=\"https://user225916.pse.is/money668\">https://user225916.pse.is/money668</a> \n频道连结 <a href=\"https://www.youtube.com/@money66868\">https://www.youtube.com/@money66868</a>\n\n由于三星与 SK 海力士的权值比重合计已超过南韩股市的 50%，甚至一度高达 70%，所以本波全球半导体的修正，就直接反应在南韩综合指数的表现上。\n\n台股则是有台积电撑盘，至上周五近一个月跌 1.67%，另外，金融类股指数也仅小跌 0.5%。台积电与金融股撑住指数，但中小型股拉回，这也是台股大盘仅跌 5.19%，但投资朋友却有面对股灾的体感。\n\n市场预计美国超大规模资料中心营运商 (CSP)，今年在资本支出上花费约 7,600 亿美元，但在其 2026 年的损益表中只会摊提约 2,110 亿美元的折旧。并且市场预估 2027-2030 年的资本支出还会成长，未来的折旧压力更大。并且造成自由现金流大幅下降，甚至转负，借贷压力增，市场担忧会影响未来超大规模资料中心营运商的资本支出计划，也因此半导体与 AI 零组件供应成为本波市场杀盘重心。\n\n但 CSP 的资本支出规划是有所依据，如下： \nAlphabet 的积压订单达 5,100 亿美元 \n微软的积压订单达 6,300 亿美元 \n亚马逊的积压订单达 3,700 亿美元 \n甲骨文的积压订单 6,380 亿美元\n\n从积压订单的角度来看，CSP 的资本支出再合理的规画内，并且云端业务的收入随着资本支出高成长，资本支出计划不会轻易转向，从产业的角度来看，投资朋友不用过度悲观。\n\n但全球市场目前面临两个紧缩压力，韩国去杠杆引发的全球去杠杆，减少市场买盘。美国十年国债殖利率上周创今年新高，这影响金融资产定价与借贷成本。去杠杆可以使市场不会过度投机，反而使市场健康，投资朋友该留意的是『美债殖利率』的后续走势。\n\n台股 42,000 点为大型支撑区，指数低档空间有限。本波全球去杠杆之后，台股成交量也开始收缩，将会有利于筹码沉淀，另外，包含费半指数与韩国股市如果出现修正，都是台股利空测底的机会。昨日 (7/27) 台股收长下影线，费半利空之下，出现买盘进场，领先大盘翻红的个股，也都是投资朋友可以追踪的产业与个股。\n\n本波市场修正，许多个股已经下跌 30%，甚至 50%，来到低位阶，并导致绩优股也受牵连，会员已经开始锁定低位阶绩优股进场，有哪些产业与个股值得留意？更多的资讯，欢迎加入 Line @\n\nAI 龙头股：鸿海 (2317-TW)、日月光 (3711-TW)、台光电 (2383-TW)、联茂 (6213-TW)、欣兴 (3037-TW)、智邦 (2345-TW)、启碁 (6285-TW)、贸联 - KY(3665-TW)、台达电 (2308-TW)、光宝科 (2301-TW)、川湖 (2059-TW)\n\n领先翻红：华邦电 (2344-TW)、南亚科 (2408-TW)、中砂 (1560-TW)、升阳半 (8028-TW)、瑞昱 (2379-TW)、联咏 (3034-TW)、环球晶 (6488-TW)\n\n更多产业趋势预告 + 盘中讯息→ \n都在叶老师的 Line @： \nLINE@ID：@money668 (@要记得加)\n\n<a href=\"https://user225916.pse.is/money668\">https://user225916.pse.is/money668</a> \n加入之后可以留言《巨亨网》让我知道你从哪里认识我的，有优惠活动或赠资会优先通知喔！\n\n文章来源：摩尔投顾－叶俊敏分析师\n\n本公司所推荐分析之个别有价证券无不当之财务利益关系以往之绩效不保证未来获利投资人应独立判断审慎评估并自负投资风险\n<div class=\"related-articles seo-links\">\n <h4>相关阅读</h4>\n <ul>\n <li><a href=\"/new/tw/article-9944.html\" title=\"宏捷科(8086-TW)砸28亿元扩建无尘室提前布局下一波成长，为2027年后扩产预留空间\">宏捷科(8086-TW)砸28亿元扩建无尘室提前布局下一波成长，为2027年后扩产预留空间</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/new/tw/article-3319.html\" title=\"升达科5月出货递延获补偿法人估获利仍强H1可望超越2025年全年\">升达科5月出货递延获补偿法人估获利仍强H1可望超越2025年全年</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/new/tw/article-6812.html\" title=\"旧制劳工也能自提6％到退休金专户领「分红」啰！17日正式上路\">旧制劳工也能自提6％到退休金专户领「分红」啰！17日正式上路</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/new/tw/article-8726.html\" title=\"资金撤出科技股法人：高股息、价值型股票迎契机\">资金撤出科技股法人：高股息、价值型股票迎契机</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/new/tw/article-5828.html\" title=\"料件短缺拖累可成6月营收随AI产品出货看好7月起营收逐月改善\">料件短缺拖累可成6月营收随AI产品出货看好7月起营收逐月改善</a></li>\n 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