非典型下跌来袭！多头踩踏！落底进场的3大关键讯号

SK 海力士公布第二季财报，内容如下：

营收：达 79.32 兆韩元（年增 257%、季增 51%）

营业利益：达 60.54 兆韩元（年增 557%、季增 61%）

净利润：达 93.92 兆韩元（年增 1242%），包含出售日本 Kioxia 股权的一次性投资收益

资本支出：调升至 40 兆至 50 兆韩元区间上缘

净现金：88 兆韩元（季增 33.6 兆韩元）

以上财报内容，不管从哪个角度来看，都是非常的优异，但不只是 SK 海力士下跌，还带崩全球 AI 供应链。因为市场对于 SK 海力士第二季的财报预期更高，或认为长约价格调涨幅度较为保守，未跟上短期记忆体价格上涨红利；记忆体平均售价涨幅放缓等。

频道连结 https://www.youtube.com/@money66868

这段时间当然不只是 SK 海力士遭到严格检视，台积电日前公布第二季营收、获利双创历史新高，且上修全年营收成长率至 40% 以上，优于市场预期，还提高资本支出，可以说是给了完美的成绩单。但由于 2 奈米与海外生产等因素，影响第三季毛利率约 2%，就导致市场担忧。

Alphabet 第二季营收 1,198 亿美元，年增 24%；营业利益扩大至 34%；Google 云端营收 248 亿美元，年增 82%。但单季自由现金流首度转负，又因上调 2026 全年资本支出，且预估 2027 年将显著增加资本支出，市场又更担心 Alphabet 的自由现金流量。

股市是产业与经济的领先指标之一，这是否代表 2027 年 AI 基础建设投资会增幅缩水或减少规模？目前从各供应链的消息与公布的财报、财测等，都没有出现 AI 产业降温讯号，不用悲观的认为产业正在反转。但 AI 产业拥挤交易，去杠杆后，多头互相踩踏，导致这波市场修正幅度远高于市场预期。

【典型下跌】股市见顶➔需求崩塌 ➔ 库存暴增 ➔ 削减资本支出 ➔ 股价崩跌赶底 (熊市)

【非典型下跌】需求旺盛 ➔ 产能扩张 ➔ 资金去杠杆 / 评价修正 ➔ 股价下跌

【典型下跌】属于传统景气循环下跌的规律，而本次【非典型下跌】却是景气循环成长，AI 产业高成长下，市场却集中 AI 供应链修正，昨日道琼指数站上月线，美国金融类股指数 (XLF)ETF 创新高，并且美国经济与台湾经济维持成长，本波【非典型下跌】是否股市已经先见顶？但经济指标与 AI 产业的实体数据来看，依然火热，投资朋友或不用太过悲观。

目前市场情绪恐慌，投资朋友如果想要进场，却不想接落下的刀子，可留意几个讯号：

台股指数自历史高点 48,218 点修正，融资余额减幅低于大盘修正幅度，融资余额是否出现加速减少，减幅赶上甚至超越大盘跌幅。

2025 年美国总统川普关税战冲击，融资维持率一度来到约 118% 的历史极端区，融资维持率跌破 130%-120% 往往是历史性低档区买点。

2025 年 4 月 7 日关税风暴约 1,776 家跌停；2020 年 3 月 12 日新冠疫情恐慌一度近 300 家跌停。台股今日近 200 家跌停，融资断头与多杀多，往往会造成百家以上跌停，但后续是否出现长下影线甚至红Ｋ棒，就是低档换手的特征。

当然本波台股修正，最主要的原因是受韩国股市与费半指数影响，两者何时止稳，将影响国际投资人与台股投资人的信心，投资朋友切勿轻易摸底，并且避免杠杆操作，市场一直都在，想要成为长期赢家，纪律性的操作将会更为重要。

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文章来源：摩尔投顾－叶俊敏分析师

本公司所推荐分析之个别有价证券
无不当之财务利益关系以往之绩效不保证未来获利
投资人应独立判断审慎评估并自负投资风险

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"", "seoKeywords": "", "seoDescription": "", "type": "0", "dataConfig": null, "level": 1 }, "article": { "id": 8683, "cid": 27, "subCid": null, "title": "非典型下跌来袭！多头踩踏！落底进场的3大关键讯号", "shortTitle": "非典型下跌来袭！多头踩踏！落底进场的3大关键讯号", "tagId": "", "attr": "", "articleView": null, "source": null, "author": "网络", "description": "SK 海力士公布第二季财报，内容如下：营收：达 79.32 兆韩元（年增 257%、季增 51%）营业利益：达 60.54 兆韩元（年增 557%、季增 61%）净利润：达 93.92 兆韩元（年增 1242%），包含出售日本 Kioxia 股权的一次性投资收益资本支出：调升至 40 兆至 50 兆韩元区间上缘净现金：88 兆韩元（季增 33.6 兆韩元）以上财报内容，不管从哪个角度来看，都是非常的优异，但不只是 SK 海力士下跌，还带崩全球 AI 供应链。因为市场对于 SK 海力士", "img": "https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6550426/l/fa3d08f433ce65a474bf04b62a72673d.jpg", "content": "SK 海力士公布第二季财报，内容如下：\n<img src=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6550426/l/fa3d08f433ce65a474bf04b62a72673d.jpg\" alt=\"非典型下跌来袭！多头踩踏！落底进场的3大关键讯号\" style=\"width:50%;height:auto;border-radius:6px;margin:15px auto;display:block;\">\n\n\n营收：达 79.32 兆韩元（年增 257%、季增 51%）\n\n营业利益：达 60.54 兆韩元（年增 557%、季增 61%）\n\n净利润：达 93.92 兆韩元（年增 1242%），包含出售日本 Kioxia 股权的一次性投资收益\n\n资本支出：调升至 40 兆至 50 兆韩元区间上缘\n\n净现金：88 兆韩元（季增 33.6 兆韩元）\n\n以上财报内容，不管从哪个角度来看，都是非常的优异，但不只是 SK 海力士下跌，还带崩全球 AI 供应链。因为市场对于 SK 海力士第二季的财报预期更高，或认为长约价格调涨幅度较为保守，未跟上短期记忆体价格上涨红利；记忆体平均售价涨幅放缓等。\n\n更多的投资策略与选股资讯都在－\n\nLINE@ <a href=\"https://user225916.pse.is/money668\">https://user225916.pse.is/money668</a>\n\n频道连结 <a href=\"https://www.youtube.com/@money66868\">https://www.youtube.com/@money66868</a>\n\n这段时间当然不只是 SK 海力士遭到严格检视，台积电日前公布第二季营收、获利双创历史新高，且上修全年营收成长率至 40% 以上，优于市场预期，还提高资本支出，可以说是给了完美的成绩单。但由于 2 奈米与海外生产等因素，影响第三季毛利率约 2%，就导致市场担忧。\n\nAlphabet 第二季营收 1,198 亿美元，年增 24%；营业利益扩大至 34%；Google 云端营收 248 亿美元，年增 82%。但单季自由现金流首度转负，又因上调 2026 全年资本支出，且预估 2027 年将显著增加资本支出，市场又更担心 Alphabet 的自由现金流量。\n\n股市是产业与经济的领先指标之一，这是否代表 2027 年 AI 基础建设投资会增幅缩水或减少规模？目前从各供应链的消息与公布的财报、财测等，都没有出现 AI 产业降温讯号，不用悲观的认为产业正在反转。但 AI 产业拥挤交易，去杠杆后，多头互相踩踏，导致这波市场修正幅度远高于市场预期。\n\n【典型下跌】股市见顶➔需求崩塌 ➔ 库存暴增 ➔ 削减资本支出 ➔ 股价崩跌赶底 (熊市)\n\n【非典型下跌】需求旺盛 ➔ 产能扩张 ➔ 资金去杠杆 / 评价修正 ➔ 股价下跌\n\n【典型下跌】属于传统景气循环下跌的规律，而本次【非典型下跌】却是景气循环成长，AI 产业高成长下，市场却集中 AI 供应链修正，昨日道琼指数站上月线，美国金融类股指数 (XLF)ETF 创新高，并且美国经济与台湾经济维持成长，本波【非典型下跌】是否股市已经先见顶？但经济指标与 AI 产业的实体数据来看，依然火热，投资朋友或不用太过悲观。\n\n目前市场情绪恐慌，投资朋友如果想要进场，却不想接落下的刀子，可留意几个讯号：\n\n台股指数自历史高点 48,218 点修正，融资余额减幅低于大盘修正幅度，融资余额是否出现加速减少，减幅赶上甚至超越大盘跌幅。\n\n2025 年美国总统川普关税战冲击，融资维持率一度来到约 118% 的历史极端区，融资维持率跌破 130%-120% 往往是历史性低档区买点。\n\n2025 年 4 月 7 日关税风暴约 1,776 家跌停；2020 年 3 月 12 日新冠疫情恐慌一度近 300 家跌停。台股今日近 200 家跌停，融资断头与多杀多，往往会造成百家以上跌停，但后续是否出现长下影线甚至红Ｋ棒，就是低档换手的特征。\n\n当然本波台股修正，最主要的原因是受韩国股市与费半指数影响，两者何时止稳，将影响国际投资人与台股投资人的信心，投资朋友切勿轻易摸底，并且避免杠杆操作，市场一直都在，想要成为长期赢家，纪律性的操作将会更为重要。\n\n更多产业趋势预告 + 盘中讯息→\n\n都在叶老师的 Line @： \nLINE@ID：@money668 (@要记得加)\n\n<a href=\"https://user225916.pse.is/money668\">https://user225916.pse.is/money668</a>\n\n加入之后可以留言《巨亨网》让我知道你从哪里认识我的，有优惠活动或赠资会优先通知喔！\n\n文章来源：摩尔投顾－叶俊敏分析师\n\n本公司所推荐分析之个别有价证券 \n无不当之财务利益关系以往之绩效不保证未来获利 \n投资人应独立判断审慎评估并自负投资风险\n<div class=\"related-articles seo-links\">\n <h4>相关阅读</h4>\n <ul>\n <li><a href=\"/new/tw/article-430.html\" 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