大摩与小摩联手做多？AI叙事开始转变，台股迎V转？那些标的可留意？

摩根士丹利日前的报告大幅上调全球五大超大规模资料中心商的资本支出，预估 2027 年及 2028 年资本支出，分别为 1.2 兆美元及 1.4 兆美元。

摩根士丹利之所以如此看好全球五大超大规模资料中心商会积极地扩大资本支出，是因为认为超大资料中心已经开始进入资本支出回报期，也就是资产投入已经能够带回实际收益与现金流回报。

摩根士丹利列出三种框架的不同的投入资本报酬率 (ROIC) 如下：

一、基础架构出租 (预计 ROIC 25%-40%)
建设 AI 资料中心，出租算力，代表企业：微软、亚马逊、Google、CoreWeave 等。

二、自有 AI 模型及基础架构 (预计 ROIC> 40%)
开发 AI 大模型并同时拥有 AI 资料中心，代表企业：OpenAI、Google、微软、Meta 等。

三、在第三方基础架构上运作 AI 模型 (预计 ROIC> 25%)
承租 AI 资料中心的 AI 模型开发商，代表企业：Anthropic、
Mistral AI、Moonshot AI 等。

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而上周亚马逊发布财报时，执行长贾西也发表类似的看法，预计 AWS 伺服器投资预计将在两到三年内收回成本，其伺服器的使用寿命为五到六年。由此可见超大资料中心的资本投入可以短期回收，是其愿意加大资本支出的原因。

同时摩根大通最新报告指出，超大规模资料中心商目前积压订单高达 1.7 兆美元，年增逾 150%，增长速度远高于资本支出约 80% 的年增率。积压订单规模将可以支撑未来的高额资本支出，并且超大规模资料中心商相较于标普 500 指数的表现，跌至近三年的底档区。

在全球大规模去杠杆之后，并「AI 股神」Leopold 的对冲基金 (Situational Awareness) 惨遭清算，及超大资料中心商的 CDS(信用违约交换)创新高之后，市场的投资逻辑与 AI 叙事开始转变，摩根士丹利认为 AI 基础建设商与 AI 模型开发商将会获得丰厚的回报。摩根大通认为 AI 基础建设商的积压订单可以支撑未来的高成长，并且股价还在相对低基期。

在全球筹码大清洗之后，超大规模资料中心的大额资本支出可能影响资本回报的叙事，开始转换成，超大规模资料中心进入资本回报期。美股资金开始明显流入 AI 供应链，台股由Ｎ字型打底，转变成Ｖ转，台股虽从上周低点上涨近五千点，近期推荐投资朋友的 AI 半导体与关键零组件也多数大涨，提醒投资朋友，许多 AI 零组件龙头股还在相对低档区；记忆体、CPO 供应链也还在低档；七月份营收高成长股及法说会重点股，以上都是可关注的产业与个股，还有哪些可留意的标的呢？如下：

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文章来源：摩尔投顾－叶俊敏分析师

本公司所推荐分析之个别有价证券无不当之财务利益关系以往之绩效不保证未来获利投资人应独立判断审慎评估并自负投资风险

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src=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6560139/m/5a00dc9ced39d74748a2c36186fb6566.jpg\" alt=\"大摩与小摩联手做多？AI叙事开始转变，台股迎V转？那些标的可留意？\" style=\"width:50%;height:auto;border-radius:6px;margin:15px auto;display:block;\">\n\n\n摩根士丹利之所以如此看好全球五大超大规模资料中心商会积极地扩大资本支出，是因为认为超大资料中心已经开始进入资本支出回报期，也就是资产投入已经能够带回实际收益与现金流回报。\n\n摩根士丹利列出三种框架的不同的投入资本报酬率 (ROIC) 如下：\n\n一、基础架构出租 (预计 ROIC 25%-40%) \n建设 AI 资料中心，出租算力，代表企业：微软、亚马逊、Google、CoreWeave 等。\n\n二、自有 AI 模型及基础架构 (预计 ROIC> 40%) \n开发 AI 大模型并同时拥有 AI 资料中心，代表企业：OpenAI、Google、微软、Meta 等。\n\n三、在第三方基础架构上运作 AI 模型 (预计 ROIC> 25%) \n承租 AI 资料中心的 AI 模型开发商，代表企业：Anthropic、 \nMistral AI、Moonshot AI 等。\n\n更多的投资策略与选股资讯都在－ \nLINE@ <a href=\"https://user225916.pse.is/money668\">https://user225916.pse.is/money668</a> \n频道连结 <a href=\"https://www.youtube.com/@money66868\">https://www.youtube.com/@money66868</a>\n\n而上周亚马逊发布财报时，执行长贾西也发表类似的看法，预计 AWS 伺服器投资预计将在两到三年内收回成本，其伺服器的使用寿命为五到六年。由此可见超大资料中心的资本投入可以短期回收，是其愿意加大资本支出的原因。\n\n同时摩根大通最新报告指出，超大规模资料中心商目前积压订单高达 1.7 兆美元，年增逾 150%，增长速度远高于资本支出约 80% 的年增率。积压订单规模将可以支撑未来的高额资本支出，并且超大规模资料中心商相较于<a href=\"https://invest.cnyes.com/index/GI/INX\">标普 500 指数</a>的表现，跌至近三年的底档区。\n\n在全球大规模去杠杆之后，并「AI 股神」Leopold 的对冲基金 (Situational Awareness) 惨遭清算，及超大资料中心商的 CDS(信用违约交换)创新高之后，市场的投资逻辑与 AI 叙事开始转变，摩根士丹利认为 AI 基础建设商与 AI 模型开发商将会获得丰厚的回报。摩根大通认为 AI 基础建设商的积压订单可以支撑未来的高成长，并且股价还在相对低基期。\n\n在全球筹码大清洗之后，超大规模资料中心的大额资本支出可能影响资本回报的叙事，开始转换成，超大规模资料中心进入资本回报期。美股资金开始明显流入 AI 供应链，台股由Ｎ字型打底，转变成Ｖ转，台股虽从上周低点上涨近五千点，近期推荐投资朋友的 AI 半导体与关键零组件也多数大涨，提醒投资朋友，许多 AI 零组件龙头股还在相对低档区；记忆体、CPO 供应链也还在低档；七月份营收高成长股及法说会重点股，以上都是可关注的产业与个股，还有哪些可留意的标的呢？如下：\n\n台股Ｖ转，低点不等人，想要参与后续行情吗？加入 \n<a href=\"https://user225916.pse.is/money668\">https://user225916.pse.is/money668</a> \n并私讯【+88】可领取限时专案。\n\n先进封装：日月光 (3711-TW)、力成 (6239-TW)、群创 (3481-TW)、万润 (6187-TW)、旺矽 (6223-TW)、长兴 (1717-TW)\n\nAI 绩优股：贸联 - KY(3665-TW)、台达电 (2308-TW)、光宝科 (2301-TW)、川湖 (2059-TW)、奇𬭎 (3017-TW)、健策 (3653-TW)、纬颖 (6669-TW)、鸿海 (2317-TW)\n\nPCB：南电 (8046-TW)、欣兴 (3037-TW)、臻鼎 - KY(4958-TW)、台光电 (2383-TW)、台燿 (6274-TW)、南亚 (1303-TW)、金居 (8358-TW)\n\n更多产业趋势预告 + 盘中讯息→ \n都在叶老师的 Line @： \nLINE@ID：@money668 (@要记得加)\n\n<a href=\"https://user225916.pse.is/money668\">https://user225916.pse.is/money668</a> \n加入之后可以留言《巨亨网》让我知道你从哪里认识我的，有优惠活动或赠品会优先通知喔！\n\n文章来源：摩尔投顾－叶俊敏分析师\n\n本公司所推荐分析之个别有价证券无不当之财务利益关系以往之绩效不保证未来获利投资人应独立判断审慎评估并自负投资风险\n<div class=\"related-articles seo-links\">\n <h4>相关阅读</h4>\n <ul>\n <li><a href=\"/new/tw/article-11826.html\" title=\"世界健身-KY挥军东南亚泰国首店启动创始会员预售\">世界健身-KY挥军东南亚泰国首店启动创始会员预售</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/new/tw/article-15089.html\" title=\"〈台股开盘〉国际油价飙跌逾500点失守4万7关卡及5日线\">〈台股开盘〉国际油价飙跌逾500点失守4万7关卡及5日线</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/new/tw/article-9533.html\" title=\"xfvcfbvxgbvgn\">xfvcfbvxgbvgn</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/new/tw/article-5487.html\" title=\"环球晶营收回神 Q2季增近1成创一年来新高\">环球晶营收回神 Q2季增近1成创一年来新高</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/new/tw/article-6198.html\" title=\"〈中联油脂食安风暴〉沙拉油合格也没用？台糖高标准主动全面下架宣布停售封存\">〈中联油脂食安风暴〉沙拉油合格也没用？台糖高标准主动全面下架宣布停售封存</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/new/tw/article-124.html\" 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