〈纽约汇市〉美元持平市场静待CPI数据

美元周二 (11 日) 持平，外汇市场参与者在攸关货币政策前景的重要通膨数据公布前保持观望。油价则小幅上涨，此前一名伊朗官员表示，在美国满足德黑兰提出的要求之前，荷姆兹海峡 (Strait of Hormuz) 将持续关闭。

〈纽约汇市〉美元持平市场静待CPI数据

纽约尾盘，追踪美元兑六种主要货币的美元指数 (DXY) 几乎没有变化，报 99.82。

市场目前将目光聚焦周三及周四公布的美国 7 月消费者物价指数 (CPI) 及生产者物价指数 (PPI)。这些数据继上周五公布的就业报告之后登场，该报告意外疲弱，导致市场大幅重新调整对联准会(Fed) 升息的预期。

经济学家预期，7 月整体 CPI 及核心 CPI 月增率将分别高于 6 月的负成长及持平表现。以年增率来看，两项指标预计都将较 6 月小幅放缓。

Interactive Brokers 资深经济学家 José Torres 表示，「如果明日核心通膨略低于预期、来到 2.4%，可能创下 63 个月来的新低，这正凸显地缘政治紧张局势如何掩盖成本压力正在降温的情况。」

他指出，「事实上，整体 CPI 预计将比扣除食品及能源价格的版本高出近 1%，这项巨大的差距显示，如果川普总统能促成一项持久的中东和平协议，将可能带来显著的去通膨进展。」

Torres 补充，「在我看来，一旦这场争端获得解决，升息很快就会不再是市场讨论的议题，因为联准会 2% 的通膨目标将在年底前触手可及，政策焦点也将迅速转向避免劳动市场进一步恶化。」

伊朗：美国须满足要求荷姆兹海峡才会重新开放

目光转向中东，油价周二上涨近 2%，此前一个交易日已大涨 5%。

自上周以来，交易员一直关注荷姆兹海峡重新开放是否会达成某种协议。这是因为包括美国总统川普在内的美国官员一再表示，双方正在进行谈判。但伊朗否认这些说法，并表示目前只与阿曼接触，没有与华盛顿进行任何直接谈判。

双方对这条重要水道的状况说法不一。美方坚称荷姆兹海峡已对商业航运开放，伊朗则警告，该海峡实际上处于关闭状态。双方说法不一，加上和平协议迟迟没有突破，推升了近几个交易日的油价。

伊朗一直与阿曼就建立荷姆兹海峡管理框架进行讨论。卡达外交部发言人表示，两国谈判已进入后期阶段，并处于关键转折点。

同时，《彭博社》引述巴基斯坦国防部长 Khawaja Muhammad Asif 报导，美国与伊朗正接近就潜在和平协议达成「某种安排」。阿曼及巴基斯坦一直是目前这场冲突的主要调停者。

伊朗要求，荷姆兹海峡重新开放的前提是美国必须满足 6 月达成、但后来破裂的临时和平协议中所列条件，包括解除美国海上封锁、撤销制裁，以及赔偿战争造成的损失。美国总统川普周一回击提出自己的赔偿要求。

根据 Kpler，通过荷姆兹海峡的航运量降至极低水准。航运追踪数据显示，获确认通过海峡的船只数量，从上周五的 15 艘降至周六的 11 艘，周日只有 6 艘。

日元回吐更多干预后涨幅

其他主要货币方面，日元周二兑美元小幅走弱，进一步回吐上个月历史性干预后取得的部分涨幅。

美元兑日元上涨 0.1%，至 159.31，逐渐逼近关键的 160 价位。

澳币兑美元上涨 0.1%，至 0.7059 美元。澳洲央行 (RBA) 如市场预期，将主要政策利率维持在 4.35% 不变。

截至台湾时间周三 (12 日) 约 5:40 价格:

美元指数报 99.8222。+0.0110%
欧元兑美元 (EUR/USD) 汇率报 1 欧元兑 1.1539 美元。-0.0347%
英镑兑美元 (GBP/USD) 汇率报 1 英镑兑 1.3504 美元。-0.0222%
澳币兑美元 (AUD/USD) 汇率报 1 澳币兑 0.7061 美元。-0.0142%
美元兑加币 (USD/CAD) 汇率报 1 美元兑 1.3923 加币。-0.0072%
美元兑日元 (USD/JPY) 汇率报 1 美元兑 159.2500 日元。-0.0188%

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Torres 表示，「如果明日核心通膨略低于预期、来到 2.4%，可能创下 63 个月来的新低，这正凸显地缘政治紧张局势如何掩盖成本压力正在降温的情况。」\n\n他指出，「事实上，整体 CPI 预计将比扣除食品及能源价格的版本高出近 1%，这项巨大的差距显示，如果川普总统能促成一项持久的中东和平协议，将可能带来显著的去通膨进展。」\n\nTorres 补充，「在我看来，一旦这场争端获得解决，升息很快就会不再是市场讨论的议题，因为联准会 2% 的通膨目标将在年底前触手可及，政策焦点也将迅速转向避免劳动市场进一步恶化。」\n\n伊朗：美国须满足要求荷姆兹海峡才会重新开放\n\n目光转向中东，油价周二上涨近 2%，此前一个交易日已大涨 5%。\n\n自上周以来，交易员一直关注荷姆兹海峡重新开放是否会达成某种协议。这是因为包括美国总统川普在内的美国官员一再表示，双方正在进行谈判。但伊朗否认这些说法，并表示目前只与阿曼接触，没有与华盛顿进行任何直接谈判。\n\n双方对这条重要水道的状况说法不一。美方坚称荷姆兹海峡已对商业航运开放，伊朗则警告，该海峡实际上处于关闭状态。双方说法不一，加上和平协议迟迟没有突破，推升了近几个交易日的油价。\n\n伊朗一直与阿曼就建立荷姆兹海峡管理框架进行讨论。卡达外交部发言人表示，两国谈判已进入后期阶段，并处于关键转折点。\n\n同时，《彭博社》引述巴基斯坦国防部长 Khawaja Muhammad Asif 报导，美国与伊朗正接近就潜在和平协议达成「某种安排」。阿曼及巴基斯坦一直是目前这场冲突的主要调停者。\n\n伊朗要求，荷姆兹海峡重新开放的前提是美国必须满足 6 月达成、但后来破裂的临时和平协议中所列条件，包括解除美国海上封锁、撤销制裁，以及赔偿战争造成的损失。美国总统川普周一回击提出自己的赔偿要求。\n\n根据 Kpler，通过荷姆兹海峡的航运量降至极低水准。航运追踪数据显示，获确认通过海峡的船只数量，从上周五的 15 艘降至周六的 11 艘，周日只有 6 艘。\n\n日元回吐更多干预后涨幅\n\n其他主要货币方面，日元周二兑美元小幅走弱，进一步回吐上个月历史性干预后取得的部分涨幅。\n\n美元兑日元上涨 0.1%，至 159.31，逐渐逼近关键的 160 价位。\n\n澳币兑美元上涨 0.1%，至 0.7059 美元。澳洲央行 (RBA) 如市场预期，将主要政策利率维持在 4.35% 不变。\n\n截至台湾时间周三 (12 日) 约 5:40 价格:\n\n<ul>\n<li><a href=\"https://invest.cnyes.com/index/GI/DXY\">美元指数</a>报 99.8222。+0.0110% </li>\n<li><a href=\"https://invest.cnyes.com/forex/detail/eurusd\">欧元</a>兑美元 (EUR/USD) 汇率报 1 <a href=\"https://invest.cnyes.com/forex/detail/eurusd\">欧元</a>兑 1.1539 美元。-0.0347% </li>\n<li><a href=\"https://invest.cnyes.com/forex/detail/gbpusd\">英镑</a>兑美元 (GBP/USD) 汇率报 1 <a href=\"https://invest.cnyes.com/forex/detail/gbpusd\">英镑</a>兑 1.3504 美元。-0.0222% </li>\n<li><a href=\"https://invest.cnyes.com/forex/detail/audusd\">澳币</a>兑美元 (AUD/USD) 汇率报 1 <a href=\"https://invest.cnyes.com/forex/detail/audusd\">澳币</a>兑 0.7061 美元。-0.0142%</li>\n<li> 美元兑<a href=\"https://invest.cnyes.com/forex/detail/cadusd\">加币</a> (USD/CAD) 汇率报 1 美元兑 1.3923 <a href=\"https://invest.cnyes.com/forex/detail/cadusd\">加币</a>。-0.0072%</li>\n<li> 美元兑<a href=\"https://invest.cnyes.com/forex/detail/jpyusd\">日元</a> (USD/JPY) 汇率报 1 美元兑 159.2500 <a href=\"https://invest.cnyes.com/forex/detail/jpyusd\">日元</a>。-0.0188%</li>\n</ul>\n<div class=\"related-articles seo-links\">\n <h4>相关阅读</h4>\n <ul>\n <li><a href=\"/new/mg/article-6165.html\" title=\"AI乐观情绪点燃风险偏好全球股票基金三周来最吸金\">AI乐观情绪点燃风险偏好全球股票基金三周来最吸金</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/new/mg/article-5267.html\" title=\"大摩：美股料将轮动 AI投资重心由晶片转向云端巨头\">大摩：美股料将轮动 AI投资重心由晶片转向云端巨头</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/new/mg/article-4060.html\" title=\"SpaceX火速纳入那斯达克100指数！7月7日生效被动资金买盘即将涌入 \">SpaceX火速纳入那斯达克100指数！7月7日生效被动资金买盘即将涌入 </a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/new/mg/article-11451.html\" title=\"SanDisk一周反弹近35% 最新财测与NAND技术蓝图成催化剂\">SanDisk一周反弹近35% 最新财测与NAND技术蓝图成催化剂</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/new/mg/article-8461.html\" title=\"押宝OpenAI却暗挺自家Azure？纳德拉：过度依赖单一AI供应商企业恐将失去竞争力\">押宝OpenAI却暗挺自家Azure？纳德拉：过度依赖单一AI供应商企业恐将失去竞争力</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/new/mg/article-6416.html\" title=\"韩股AI热潮引发剧烈震荡波动率创1998年金融危机以来新高\">韩股AI热潮引发剧烈震荡波动率创1998年金融危机以来新高</a></li>\n </ul>\n</div>", "status": 0, "pv": 26, "link": "https://news.cnyes.com/news/id/6571122", "createdAt": "2026-08-11T21:41:42.000Z", "updatedAt": "2026-08-21T17:41:44.000Z" }, "position": [ { "id": 15, "pid": 0, "name": "热点新闻", "pinyin": "new", "path": "/new", "orderBy": 0, "target": "0", "status": "0", "listView": "list.html", "articleView": "article.html", "seoTitle": "", "seoKeywords": "", "seoDescription": "", "type": "0", "dataConfig": null, "children": [ { "id": 25, "pid": 15, "name": "美股", "pinyin": "mg", "path": "/new/mg", "orderBy": 0, "target": "0", "status": "0", "listView": "list.html", "articleView": "article.html", "seoTitle": "", "seoKeywords": "", "seoDescription": "", "type": "0", "dataConfig": null, "level": 1 }, { "id": 26, "pid": 15, "name": "港股", "pinyin": "hk", "path": "/new/hk", "orderBy": 0, "target": "0", "status": "0", "listView": "list.html", "articleView": "article.html", "seoTitle": "", "seoKeywords": "", "seoDescription": "", "type": "0", "dataConfig": null, "level": 1 }, { "id": 27, "pid": 15, "name": 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