〈纽约汇市〉美元抹去CPI数据后跌幅荷姆兹海峡局势不明推升避险需求

美元周三(12日)从盘中低点反弹并小幅走升，中东和平协议的不确定性，抵销了符合预期的7月消费者通膨数据所带来的影响。最新通膨数据降低了市场对联准会(Fed)升息的预期。

近期投资人提高对货币政策收紧的预期，带动美元走强，但最新通膨数据并未出现足以延续这波涨势的意外升幅。

纽约尾盘，追踪美元兑六种主要货币的美元指数(DXY)上涨0.2%，报99.98。CPI数据早上公布后，美元指数一度扩大跌幅，触及99.61盘中低点，之后回升并在中午前转为走高。

外汇市场参与者周三将焦点集中在7月消费者物价指数(CPI)报告，以寻找更多货币政策前景的线索。上周五公布的7月就业报告弱于预期，导致市场迅速重新调整对联准会9月升息的预期。

根据美国劳工统计局数据，7月整体CPI月增0.1%，6月则下跌0.4%。年增率则从6月的3.5%放缓至3.4%。扣除食品及能源价格的核心CPI，7月月增0.2%，6月则持平。年增率也从2.6%放缓至2.5%。上述4项数据均符合市场预期。

周四将接着公布7月生产者物价指数(PPI)。虽然CPI与PPI都是市场广泛关注的通膨指标，但联准会更偏好追踪个人消费支出(PCE)物价指数，以评估通膨情势。CPI与PPI中的部分项目会被纳入PCE的计算。

对联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)而言，这些符合预期的数据可能让其有更多空间维持利率不变，而不是升息，尤其是在周五公布疲弱就业报告之后。

利率市场也反映出这项预期。CME FedWatch工具显示，CPI公布后，市场预期9月维持利率不变的机率从54%升至62%。

荷姆兹海峡紧张持续 布油徘徊90美元

目光转向中东，油价周三震荡，市场持续受到各方对荷姆兹海峡(Strait of Hormuz)不同说法的影响。布兰特原油(Brent)期货一度短暂触及每桶90美元。

目前看来，重新开放这条重要水道的和平协议进展有限，美国与伊朗仍持续宣称掌握这条重要航道的控制权。

美国总统川普在Truth Social上表示，「美国完全控制荷姆兹海峡。」

伊朗国营媒体周二稍早报导，伊朗再次提出要求，表示美国必须停止各条战线上的敌对行动，并解冻遭冻结的资产，荷姆兹海峡才会重新开放。相关说法引述伊朗国家安全委员会主席Mohsen Rezaei向中国驻德黑兰大使发表的言论。

据伊朗国营媒体，Rezaei表示，「在美国改变行为并接受伊朗的条件之前，荷姆兹海峡不会开放。任何伊朗与阿曼之间的航运协议，都是独立于荷姆兹海峡关闭之外的另一件事。」

Kpler数据显示，周二获确认通过荷姆兹海峡的船只数量小幅增加，但整体市场气氛仍保持谨慎，加上新的攻击事件进一步加剧担忧。

叶门叛军「青年运动」(Houthi)在曼德海峡(Mandeb Strait)攻击商业航运，造成4名货轮船员及2名叶门救援人员死亡。

日元持续回吐干预后涨幅

其他主要货币方面，日元兑美元走弱，持续回吐上月底华盛顿与东京进行历史性联合干预后取得涨幅。美元兑日元上涨0.1%，至159.46。

稍早公布的最新Reuters Tankan调查显示，受强劲半导体需求及国内消费旺盛带动，日本企业信心在8月有所改善。这项调查旨在提前反映日本央行(BoJ)季度企业短期经济观测调查的结果。

欧元兑美元下跌0.2%，至1.1524美元。

英镑兑美元下跌0.1%，至1.3491美元。

截至台湾时间周四 (13 日) 约 5:40 价格:

美元指数报 99.9828。+0.0107%
欧元兑美元 (EUR/USD)汇率报1欧元兑1.1520美元。-0.0347%
英镑兑美元 (GBP/USD)汇率报1英镑兑1.3490美元。-0.0445%
澳币兑美元 (AUD/USD)汇率报1澳币兑0.7058美元。-0.0708%
美元兑加币 (USD/CAD)汇率报1美元兑1.3938加币。-0.0072%
美元兑日元 (USD/JPY)汇率报1美元兑159.2500日元。-0.0188%

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auto;display:block;\">\n\n\n近期投资人提高对货币政策收紧的预期，带动美元走强，但最新通膨数据并未出现足以延续这波涨势的意外升幅。\n\n纽约尾盘，追踪美元兑六种主要货币的美元指数(DXY)上涨0.2%，报99.98。CPI数据早上公布后，美元指数一度扩大跌幅，触及99.61盘中低点，之后回升并在中午前转为走高。\n\n外汇市场参与者周三将焦点集中在7月消费者物价指数(CPI)报告，以寻找更多货币政策前景的线索。上周五公布的7月就业报告弱于预期，导致市场迅速重新调整对联准会9月升息的预期。\n\n根据美国劳工统计局数据，7月整体CPI月增0.1%，6月则下跌0.4%。年增率则从6月的3.5%放缓至3.4%。扣除食品及能源价格的核心CPI，7月月增0.2%，6月则持平。年增率也从2.6%放缓至2.5%。上述4项数据均符合市场预期。\n\n周四将接着公布7月生产者物价指数(PPI)。虽然CPI与PPI都是市场广泛关注的通膨指标，但联准会更偏好追踪个人消费支出(PCE)物价指数，以评估通膨情势。CPI与PPI中的部分项目会被纳入PCE的计算。\n\n对联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)而言，这些符合预期的数据可能让其有更多空间维持利率不变，而不是升息，尤其是在周五公布疲弱就业报告之后。\n\n利率市场也反映出这项预期。CME FedWatch工具显示，CPI公布后，市场预期9月维持利率不变的机率从54%升至62%。 \n\n荷姆兹海峡紧张持续 布油徘徊90美元\n\n目光转向中东，油价周三震荡，市场持续受到各方对荷姆兹海峡(Strait of Hormuz)不同说法的影响。布兰特原油(Brent)期货一度短暂触及每桶90美元。\n\n目前看来，重新开放这条重要水道的和平协议进展有限，美国与伊朗仍持续宣称掌握这条重要航道的控制权。\n\n美国总统川普在Truth Social上表示，「美国完全控制荷姆兹海峡。」\n\n伊朗国营媒体周二稍早报导，伊朗再次提出要求，表示美国必须停止各条战线上的敌对行动，并解冻遭冻结的资产，荷姆兹海峡才会重新开放。相关说法引述伊朗国家安全委员会主席Mohsen Rezaei向中国驻德黑兰大使发表的言论。\n\n据伊朗国营媒体，Rezaei表示，「在美国改变行为并接受伊朗的条件之前，荷姆兹海峡不会开放。任何伊朗与阿曼之间的航运协议，都是独立于荷姆兹海峡关闭之外的另一件事。」\n\nKpler数据显示，周二获确认通过荷姆兹海峡的船只数量小幅增加，但整体市场气氛仍保持谨慎，加上新的攻击事件进一步加剧担忧。\n\n叶门叛军「青年运动」(Houthi)在曼德海峡(Mandeb Strait)攻击商业航运，造成4名货轮船员及2名叶门救援人员死亡。\n\n日元持续回吐干预后涨幅\n\n其他主要货币方面，日元兑美元走弱，持续回吐上月底华盛顿与东京进行历史性联合干预后取得涨幅。美元兑日元上涨0.1%，至159.46。\n\n稍早公布的最新Reuters Tankan调查显示，受强劲半导体需求及国内消费旺盛带动，日本企业信心在8月有所改善。这项调查旨在提前反映日本央行(BoJ)季度企业短期经济观测调查的结果。\n\n欧元兑美元下跌0.2%，至1.1524美元。\n\n英镑兑美元下跌0.1%，至1.3491美元。\n\n截至台湾时间周四 (13 日) 约 5:40 价格:\n\n<ul>\n<li><a href=\"https://invest.cnyes.com/index/GI/DXY\">美元指数</a>报 99.9828。+0.0107%</li>\n<li><a href=\"https://invest.cnyes.com/forex/detail/eurusd\">欧元</a>兑美元 (EUR/USD)汇率报1<a href=\"https://invest.cnyes.com/forex/detail/eurusd\">欧元</a>兑1.1520美元。-0.0347%</li>\n<li><a href=\"https://invest.cnyes.com/forex/detail/gbpusd\">英镑</a>兑美元 (GBP/USD)汇率报1<a href=\"https://invest.cnyes.com/forex/detail/gbpusd\">英镑</a>兑1.3490美元。-0.0445%</li>\n<li><a href=\"https://invest.cnyes.com/forex/detail/audusd\">澳币</a>兑美元 (AUD/USD)汇率报1<a href=\"https://invest.cnyes.com/forex/detail/audusd\">澳币</a>兑0.7058美元。-0.0708%</li>\n<li>美元兑<a href=\"https://invest.cnyes.com/forex/detail/cadusd\">加币</a> (USD/CAD)汇率报1美元兑1.3938<a href=\"https://invest.cnyes.com/forex/detail/cadusd\">加币</a>。-0.0072%</li>\n<li>美元兑<a href=\"https://invest.cnyes.com/forex/detail/jpyusd\">日元</a> (USD/JPY)汇率报1美元兑159.2500<a href=\"https://invest.cnyes.com/forex/detail/jpyusd\">日元</a>。-0.0188%</li>\n</ul><div class=\"related-articles seo-links\">\n <h4>相关阅读</h4>\n <ul>\n <li><a href=\"/new/mg/article-2285.html\" title=\"股价暴涨228%还能买？Cramer力挺英特尔继续向上\">股价暴涨228%还能买？Cramer力挺英特尔继续向上</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/new/mg/article-9204.html\" title=\"AI科技股暴跌真相？25岁明星基金高杠杆踩雷、Citadel抄底后市场急反弹\">AI科技股暴跌真相？25岁明星基金高杠杆踩雷、Citadel抄底后市场急反弹</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/new/mg/article-2179.html\" title=\"油价大跌汽油何时降？专家揭「涨如火箭跌如羽毛」真相 Costco、沃尔玛降价最快 \">油价大跌汽油何时降？专家揭「涨如火箭跌如羽毛」真相 Costco、沃尔玛降价最快 </a></li>\n <li><a 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