〈纽约汇市〉美元徘徊近两个月高点油价再涨、债市抛售加剧

美元周四(24日)连续第四个交易日上涨，徘徊在近两个月高点附近。油价再度大涨，加剧市场对通膨的担忧，而债券市场的抛售也没有出现缓解迹象。

纽约尾盘，追踪美元兑六种主要货币的美元指数(DXY)上涨0.2%，报101.26，创7月28日以来最高。

油价周四连续第二个交易日上涨，进一步收复周二结束的连续5个交易日跌势。油价上涨主要因美国与伊朗外交突破希望减弱。

美国总统川普与伊朗总统Masoud Pezeshkian本周在纽约联合国大会上发表强硬演说。

川普威胁要「摧毁」伊朗并「把他们打入地狱」，否则就达成协议。德黑兰方面则表示，伊朗「永远不会低头」或「屈膝」，同时表示愿意进行「对话、外交与谈判」。

尽管美国代表与伊朗代表团已在联合国大会期间进行间接会谈，但美国国务卿卢比欧(Marco Rubio)周三表示，他不会将这些讨论形容为「重大突破」，而更像是「延续过去曾进行的对话」。

两国在荷姆兹海峡(Strait of Hormuz)控制权问题上仍存在分歧。《路透社》周四援引接近谈判人士的消息报导，美伊谈判代表在纽约讨论了逐步结束战争的方案，包括德黑兰重新开放荷姆兹海峡，以及华府解除经济封锁。消息一度帮助油价收敛涨幅，但回落很快就告终。

同时，美国债券市场的抛售周四持续，美国10年期公债殖利率上升8.9个基点至5.205%，创2007年7月以来最高。

标普全球(S&P Global)周三公布的报告显示，美国企业活动9月连续第四个月加速，创2021年7月以来最快成长速度。服务业与制造业产出均稳健成长，推动整体活动大幅增加。

同时，标普全球表示，美国9月价格压力进一步升温，商品与服务的平均投入成本均大幅上升，整体通膨率创2022年10月以来最高。燃料与运输成本上升是主要推动因素。

数据显示，美国经济保持韧性的同时，通膨依然顽强，进一步推升市场对联准会(Fed)10月升息的预期。根据CME FedWatch工具，市场目前预期联准会下个月升息1码的机率接近69%，高于一周前的约55%。

Interactive Brokers资深经济学家José Torres表示，「市场参与者似乎认为，联准会主席华许(Kevin Warsh)愿意多次升息，以对抗主要由能源价格推动的通膨压力。美债市场目前预期，明年夏季结束前将再升息4次、每次25个基点，总计再升息1个百分点。」

他指出，「但从购屋者与租屋者的角度来看，房价涨势持续降温，关税的温和影响大致已经过去，薪资成本也受到控制。在整体成本压力呈现降温而非升温的背景下，短期内大幅紧缩似乎并不合理。」

Torres补充，「没错，目前通膨确实远高于目标，但如果主要原因是供给冲击，那么目前市场如此迅速重新定价货币政策预期就没有太大意义，因为燃料成本下降将使通膨回到接近2%目标的水准。」

习近平访美 人民币成焦点

人民币周四几乎持平，美元兑人民币报6.7128。

当天稍早，川普在白宫接待中国国家主席习近平，这是中国国家元首自2015年以来首次赴美进行国是访问。

川普表示，美中两国团队一直在合作，「促进更加平衡的贸易关系」，他也表示自己与习近平将共同「为两国打造更美好的未来」。

贸易议题与AI预计将是川普与习近平会谈的两大焦点。

日元走弱欧元与英镑小幅下跌

日元连续第五个交易日走弱，美元兑日元上涨0.3%至158.84。

交易员结束连假恢复交易后，持续关注东京当局可能进行的汇市干预。近期日本银行(BoJ)进行「利率检查」，市场因此更加留意日本政府的干预动向。

日本银行上周升息并未被市场视为足够强硬。

欧洲方面，受到美元走强影响，欧元与英镑表现低迷。欧元兑美元小幅跌至1.1380美元，英镑兑美元下跌0.2%至1.3217美元。

截至台湾时间周五 (25 日) 约 6:00 价格:

美元指数报 101.2501。+0.0063%
欧元兑美元 (EUR/USD)汇率报1欧元兑1.1376美元。-0.0351%
英镑兑美元 (GBP/USD)汇率报1英镑兑1.3215美元。-0.0303%
澳币兑美元 (AUD/USD)汇率报1澳币兑0.7011美元。0.0000%
美元兑加币 (USD/CAD)汇率报1美元兑1.4138加币。+0.0071%
美元兑日元 (USD/JPY)汇率报1美元兑158.7700日元。-0.0504%

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油价连二涨、美债10年殖利率升至5.205%创2007年7月来新高。
美9月企业活动创2021年7月来最快成长，通膨升温推升Fed下月升息1码机率至69%。", "img": "https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6615347/l/c5c56ef4b16e23293167e88246d4cb16.jpg", "content": "美元周四(24日)连续第四个交易日上涨，徘徊在近两个月高点附近。油价再度大涨，加剧市场对通膨的担忧，而债券市场的抛售也没有出现缓解迹象。\n<img src=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6615347/l/c5c56ef4b16e23293167e88246d4cb16.jpg\" alt=\"〈纽约汇市〉美元徘徊近两个月高点油价再涨、债市抛售加剧\" style=\"width:50%;height:auto;border-radius:6px;margin:15px auto;display:block;\">\n\n\n纽约尾盘，追踪美元兑六种主要货币的美元指数(DXY)上涨0.2%，报101.26，创7月28日以来最高。\n\n油价周四连续第二个交易日上涨，进一步收复周二结束的连续5个交易日跌势。油价上涨主要因美国与伊朗外交突破希望减弱。\n\n美国总统川普与伊朗总统Masoud Pezeshkian本周在纽约联合国大会上发表强硬演说。\n\n川普威胁要「摧毁」伊朗并「把他们打入地狱」，否则就达成协议。德黑兰方面则表示，伊朗「永远不会低头」或「屈膝」，同时表示愿意进行「对话、外交与谈判」。\n\n尽管美国代表与伊朗代表团已在联合国大会期间进行间接会谈，但美国国务卿卢比欧(Marco Rubio)周三表示，他不会将这些讨论形容为「重大突破」，而更像是「延续过去曾进行的对话」。\n\n两国在荷姆兹海峡(Strait of Hormuz)控制权问题上仍存在分歧。《路透社》周四援引接近谈判人士的消息报导，美伊谈判代表在纽约讨论了逐步结束战争的方案，包括德黑兰重新开放荷姆兹海峡，以及华府解除经济封锁。消息一度帮助油价收敛涨幅，但回落很快就告终。\n\n 同时，美国债券市场的抛售周四持续，美国10年期公债殖利率上升8.9个基点至5.205%，创2007年7月以来最高。\n\n标普全球(S&P Global)周三公布的报告显示，美国企业活动9月连续第四个月加速，创2021年7月以来最快成长速度。服务业与制造业产出均稳健成长，推动整体活动大幅增加。\n\n同时，标普全球表示，美国9月价格压力进一步升温，商品与服务的平均投入成本均大幅上升，整体通膨率创2022年10月以来最高。燃料与运输成本上升是主要推动因素。\n\n数据显示，美国经济保持韧性的同时，通膨依然顽强，进一步推升市场对联准会(Fed)10月升息的预期。根据CME FedWatch工具，市场目前预期联准会下个月升息1码的机率接近69%，高于一周前的约55%。\n\nInteractive Brokers资深经济学家José Torres表示，「市场参与者似乎认为，联准会主席华许(Kevin Warsh)愿意多次升息，以对抗主要由能源价格推动的通膨压力。美债市场目前预期，明年夏季结束前将再升息4次、每次25个基点，总计再升息1个百分点。」\n\n他指出，「但从购屋者与租屋者的角度来看，房价涨势持续降温，关税的温和影响大致已经过去，薪资成本也受到控制。在整体成本压力呈现降温而非升温的背景下，短期内大幅紧缩似乎并不合理。」\n\nTorres补充，「没错，目前通膨确实远高于目标，但如果主要原因是供给冲击，那么目前市场如此迅速重新定价货币政策预期就没有太大意义，因为燃料成本下降将使通膨回到接近2%目标的水准。」\n\n习近平访美 人民币成焦点\n\n人民币周四几乎持平，美元兑人民币报6.7128。\n\n当天稍早，川普在白宫接待中国国家主席习近平，这是中国国家元首自2015年以来首次赴美进行国是访问。\n\n川普表示，美中两国团队一直在合作，「促进更加平衡的贸易关系」，他也表示自己与习近平将共同「为两国打造更美好的未来」。\n\n贸易议题与AI预计将是川普与习近平会谈的两大焦点。\n\n日元走弱 欧元与英镑小幅下跌\n\n日元连续第五个交易日走弱，美元兑日元上涨0.3%至158.84。\n\n交易员结束连假恢复交易后，持续关注东京当局可能进行的汇市干预。近期日本银行(BoJ)进行「利率检查」，市场因此更加留意日本政府的干预动向。\n\n日本银行上周升息并未被市场视为足够强硬。\n\n欧洲方面，受到美元走强影响，欧元与英镑表现低迷。欧元兑美元小幅跌至1.1380美元，英镑兑美元下跌0.2%至1.3217美元。\n\n截至台湾时间周五 (25 日) 约 6:00 价格:\n\n<ul>\n<li><a href=\"https://invest.cnyes.com/index/GI/DXY\">美元指数</a>报 101.2501。+0.0063%</li>\n<li><a href=\"https://invest.cnyes.com/forex/detail/eurusd\">欧元</a>兑美元 (EUR/USD)汇率报1<a href=\"https://invest.cnyes.com/forex/detail/eurusd\">欧元</a>兑1.1376美元。-0.0351%</li>\n<li><a href=\"https://invest.cnyes.com/forex/detail/gbpusd\">英镑</a>兑美元 (GBP/USD)汇率报1<a href=\"https://invest.cnyes.com/forex/detail/gbpusd\">英镑</a>兑1.3215美元。-0.0303%</li>\n<li><a href=\"https://invest.cnyes.com/forex/detail/audusd\">澳币</a>兑美元 (AUD/USD)汇率报1<a href=\"https://invest.cnyes.com/forex/detail/audusd\">澳币</a>兑0.7011美元。0.0000%</li>\n<li>美元兑<a href=\"https://invest.cnyes.com/forex/detail/cadusd\">加币</a> (USD/CAD)汇率报1美元兑1.4138<a href=\"https://invest.cnyes.com/forex/detail/cadusd\">加币</a>。+0.0071%</li>\n<li>美元兑<a href=\"https://invest.cnyes.com/forex/detail/jpyusd\">日元</a> (USD/JPY)汇率报1美元兑158.7700<a href=\"https://invest.cnyes.com/forex/detail/jpyusd\">日元</a>。-0.0504%</li>\n</ul><div class=\"related-articles seo-links\">\n <h4>相关阅读</h4>\n <ul>\n <li><a href=\"/new/mg/article-20758.html\" title=\"AI彻底结束了？Anthropic单季营收168亿美元仍遭唱衰\">AI彻底结束了？Anthropic单季营收168亿美元仍遭唱衰</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/new/mg/article-15050.html\" title=\"叶伦等近50名经济学家致函法院「川普关税恐让总统权力失控」\">叶伦等近50名经济学家致函法院「川普关税恐让总统权力失控」</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/new/mg/article-1651.html\" title=\"100美元就能投资SpaceX？preSPAX代币三天吸金1.77亿美元！专家警告：或「血本无归」\">100美元就能投资SpaceX？preSPAX代币三天吸金1.77亿美元！专家警告：或「血本无归」</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/new/mg/article-9126.html\" title=\"〈美股早盘〉亚马逊与晶片股领涨主要指数开高\">〈美股早盘〉亚马逊与晶片股领涨主要指数开高</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/new/mg/article-21813.html\" title=\"马斯克示警逾200家AI新云业者恐倒闭！GPU融资收紧、资料中心面临闲置风险\">马斯克示警逾200家AI新云业者恐倒闭！GPU融资收紧、资料中心面临闲置风险</a></li>\n <li><a 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