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"title": "基金操盘手：投资AI最简单的方法 就是跟着「资本支出」走",
"shortTitle": "基金操盘手：投资AI最简单的方法 就是跟着「资本支出」走",
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"description": "面对人工智慧 (AI) 投资热潮，市场如今最担心的问题是：投入的巨额资本，最终究竟能否获得回报？管理规模近 45 亿美元的蓝鲸成长基金 (Blue Whale Growth Fund) 基金经理兼 Stephen Yiu 表示，与其猜测哪些公司最终能靠 AI 赚钱，不如采取更简单的策略：「跟着资本支出走」。 Yiu 说：「钱流向哪里？这才是投资人真正该问的问题。然后，把资金配置到那些将直接受惠于 AI 投资的公司。」 他指出，AI 基建投资人目前的策略都是「先花钱，希望未来 AI 成功后再把钱赚",
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"content": "<p>面对人工智慧 (AI) 投资热潮，市场如今最担心的问题是：投入的巨额资本，最终究竟能否获得回报？管理规模近 45 亿美元的蓝鲸成长基金 (Blue Whale Growth Fund) 基金经理兼 Stephen Yiu 表示，与其猜测哪些公司最终能靠 AI 赚钱，不如采取更简单的策略：「跟着资本支出走」。</p>\n<p style=\"text-align:center;\"><img src=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6521115/l/b2032d8de5e95b15f62c2cf26cbb8be6.jpg\" alt=\"基金操盘手：投资AI最简单的方法 就是跟着「资本支出」走\" style=\"width:50%;height:auto;border-radius:6px;margin:15px auto;display:block;\"></p>\n\n\n<p>Yiu 说：「钱流向哪里？这才是投资人真正该问的问题。然后，把资金配置到那些将直接受惠于 AI 投资的公司。」</p>\n\n<p>他指出，AI 基建投资人目前的策略都是「先花钱，希望未来 AI 成功后再把钱赚回来」，但这并没有任何保证。「对 AI 投资人而言，他们现在先投入大量资本，希望未来如果 AI 成功，能把钱赚回来，但这并不是一定会发生。」</p>\n\n<h6>重押 AI 供应链设备商</h6>\n\n<p>这位伦敦基金操盘手目前将投资重心放在全球半导体供应链，尤其是直接承接 AI 资本支出的企业。</p>\n\n<p>Blue Whale 目前前十大持股包括：应用材料 (Applied Materials)(AMAT-US)、BE Semiconductor Industries、SK 海力士、科林研发 (Lam Research)(LRCX-US)、Lumentum(LITE-US)、辉达 (NVDA-US)、Sandisk(SNDK-US)。</p>\n\n<p>Yiu 表示，自 2017 年成立以来，Blue Whale 基金扣除费用后的年化报酬率约 19%，优于 MSCI 全世界指数同期约 12.4% 的报酬。</p>\n\n<h6>提前撤出软体股 避开 AI 冲击</h6>\n\n<p>Yiu 指出，蓝鲸基金成立初期的持股几乎涵盖整个软体业，包括：Salesforce(CRM-US)、Adobe(ADBE-US)、微软 (MSFT-US)。虽然这项策略一度奏效，但到 2024 年之后决定清空软体股，才得以成功避开后续因 AI 颠覆浪潮引发的修正。</p>\n\n<p>他回忆：「当时我一直高喊 AI 将颠覆软体产业，但当时很少投资人真正理解。」</p>\n\n<p>提前布局辉达、SK 海力士</p>\n\n<p>蓝鲸也提早布局 AI 受惠股，该基金于 2021 年买进辉达，即使 2022 年股价剧烈震荡，仍一路抱牢。</p>\n\n<p>2025 年初买进 SK 海力士的时机同样精准，该公司股价一年来已大涨 685%。</p>\n\n<p>此外，蓝鲸基金也于 2024 年布局 AI 资料中心用液冷系统领域的 Vertiv(VRT-US) 和晶片制造商博通 (Broadcom)(AVGO-US)，并于去年底再加码 Lumentum，押注 AI 资料中心光通讯需求。</p>\n\n<h6>辉达仍便宜</h6>\n\n<p>虽然辉达今年股价仅上涨约 5%，人气明显降温，Yiu 认为，主要原因是市场对辉达及博通抱持过高期待，希望两家公司持续复制过去两、三年的爆发性报酬。</p>\n\n<p>但他说：「你不能期待辉达两年内就变成一家市值 10 兆美元的公司。它或许终究会达到 10 兆美元，但需要时间。」</p>\n\n<p>他表示，目前辉达预估本益比约 22 倍，加上帐上仍握有大量净现金，主要客户也都相当稳健，「从获利成长轨迹来看，完全没有停止的迹象，但辉达估值反而愈来愈便宜。」</p>\n\n<p>相较之下，苹果 (AAPL-US) 本益比已超过 30 倍，但营收几乎没有成长。</p>\n\n<p>Yiu 认为：「AI 革命仍处于非常早期阶段，因此 GPU 需求还有很长一段成长路要走。」</p>\n\n<h6>仅布局 Alphabet 未买其他大型云端业者</h6>\n\n<p>在大型云端服务商 (hyperscaler) 方面，该基金目前仅持有 Alphabet(GOOGL-US)。</p>\n\n<p>Yiu 表示，今年买进 Alphabet，是因为看好 Gemini 大型语言模型，认为公司正朝向正确方向发展，有机会成为 AI 时代的长期赢家。</p>\n\n<p>至于 SpaceX(SPCX-US)，该基金则选择放弃。Yiu 认为，SpaceX 估值包含太多「马斯克光环溢价」，且未来三年、甚至更长时间恐怕仍持续亏损。</p>\n\n<p>他也认为，OpenAI 及 Anthropic 未来若上市，估值可能都会过于昂贵。</p>\n\n<h6>记忆体需求将是 AI 最持久的受惠族群</h6>\n\n<p>Yiu 表示，相较于其他 AI 基础建设，他最看好记忆体产业的长期需求。</p>\n\n<p>他说：「我们认为，AI 将带来资料与内容的大爆发。」AI 生成内容、个人化资料以及广告都将持续增加，因此需要更多储存空间。</p>\n\n<p>Yiu 指出，苹果近期调涨部分产品售价，就是记忆体价格持续攀升的重要证据，「如果投资人相信 AI 会持续发展，那么记忆体价格势必还会继续上涨。」</p>\n<div class=\"related-articles seo-links\">\n <h4>相关阅读</h4>\n <ul>\n <li><a href=\"/new/mg/article-9391.html\" title=\"「你骗不了债市！」美银警告Fed：再不交代抗通膨计划 美债恐续跌\">「你骗不了债市！」美银警告Fed：再不交代抗通膨计划 美债恐续跌</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/new/mg/article-14809.html\" title=\"伊朗称掳获美军尖端无人潜航器 美方回应\">伊朗称掳获美军尖端无人潜航器 美方回应</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/new/mg/article-20318.html\" title=\"SpaceX突限制星链！乌军无人机惨遭断网 多项任务失败\">SpaceX突限制星链！乌军无人机惨遭断网 多项任务失败</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/new/mg/article-21684.html\" title=\"散户抄底愈抄愈低！半导体杠杆ETF单周吸金61亿美元 10月已暴跌逾40%\">散户抄底愈抄愈低！半导体杠杆ETF单周吸金61亿美元 10月已暴跌逾40%</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/new/mg/article-15047.html\" title=\"苹果新品发表会：Apple Watch Series 12亮相 AI评估每日身体状态\">苹果新品发表会：Apple Watch Series 12亮相 AI评估每日身体状态</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/new/mg/article-14655.html\" title=\"蔚华科：做玻璃的全都来找 明年是量产前哨关键年\">蔚华科：做玻璃的全都来找 明年是量产前哨关键年</a></li>\n </ul>\n</div>",
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