盘后跳水！苹果财报解读：零件短缺拖累财测、iPhone与Mac强攻、服务及大中华失色、特纳斯接班

苹果 (AAPL-US) 周四 (30 日) 盘后公布上季 (苹果会计年度第 3 季，6 月为止) 财报，整体营收获利优于预期，但受供应瓶颈影响，本季 (第 4 季，9 月为止) 财测让华尔街失望，盘后股价重挫逾 6%，这也显示整体产业供应链吃紧的冲击比市场预期更严重。本次财报电话会议的重点如下：

1、财测失色

Q4 财测关键数字 vs 分析师预测

营收增幅：9-11% vs 12%
iPhone 营收增幅：14-16% vs 17.6%
毛利率：47-48%

苹果财务长 Kevan Parekh 表示，苹果本季营收预估成长 9-11%，不如 LSEG 访调分析师所估的 12%，而该季通常是新款 iPhone 上市后的首个完整销售季度。

此外，iPhone 营收成长预估增幅落在 14-16%，也逊于分析师预测的 17.6%，毛利率则预料将落在 47-48%。

苹果同时预警，服务业务本季成长将放缓，并指出欧盟等地 App Store 新法规将带来冲击，因新法允许开发者直接向用户收取订阅费，绕过苹果抽成机制，此外，游戏业务收入也低于预期。

财报电话会议结束后不久，苹果股价一度下跌 6.8%，截稿前仍跌 6.3%。若跌幅维持至周五收盘，将创下苹果自 2014 年 1 月 28 日以来最大的财报后单日跌幅，当时跌幅为 8%。

2、「评估所有方案」因应供应瓶颈

在电话财报会议上，库克表示目前正面临「非常显著的供应限制」，供应链几乎没有足够弹性可迅速化解问题，苹果正在「评估所有方案」，寻找零组件替代供应来源。

库克表示，供应限制本季将影响更多 Mac、iPhone 与 iPad 产品，汇率波动也将拖累成长。

他以「百年洪水」(100-year flood) 形容记忆体成本飙升，并表示晶片短缺主要来自 iPhone 与 Mac 需求远超预期，特别点名 iPhone 17 系列与平价笔电 MacBook Neo 需求强劲。

他说：「根本原因在于，这波产品周期的需求远超出我们原先预期，而先进晶片制造供应链本身的弹性不足，无法满足如此庞大的需求。」

苹果也面临人工智慧 (AI) 资料中心投资热潮带来的供应链压力，导致与长期记忆体供应商美光 (MU-US) 之间的关系承受压力。库克曾指出，包括记忆体晶片，以及由台积电 (2330-TW) 代工的 iPhone 处理器都面临供应不足。

3、整体营收优预期，iPhone、Mac 强攻

Q3(6 月 27 日止) 财报关键数字 vs 分析师预期

EPS：2.02 美元 vs 1.89 美元 (预测数字未含关税退款)
营收：1094.2 亿美元 (年增 16.4%) vs 1086.5 亿美元
毛利率：50.1% vs 47.9% (预测数字未含关税退款)
现金：1465.2 亿美元

各终端产品表现 vs. 分析师共识预期

iPhone 营收：542.5 亿美元 (年增 21.7%) vs 538.6 亿美元
Mac 营收：103.5 亿美元 (年增 28.7%) vs 87.4 亿美元
iPad 营收：61.9 亿美元 (年减 5.9%) vs 69.2 亿美元
穿戴装置、居家用品及配件 (Wearables, Home and Accessories)：78.8 亿美元 (年增 6.5%) vs 78.2 亿美元
服务营收：307.4 亿美元 (年增 12.1%) vs 312.2 亿美元

苹果上季财报优于市场预期，在消费电子产品普遍涨价下，iPhone 与 MacBook 需求仍保持强劲，带动营收与获利双双优于预期，其中营收连三季交出至少 15% 的成长表现，净利虽然有川普政府关税退款的挹注，但扣除后仍优于分析师预期。

上季最大成长动能仍来自 iPhone，营收年增 21.7% 至 542.5 亿美元，高于分析师预估的 538.6 亿美元，创下历年来最佳同期表现。第 3 季往往是 iPhone 销售淡季，因为时间点很接近秋季新机发表会。

Mac 表现远胜市场预期，即使入门款 MacBook Neo 与高阶 MacBook Pro 已调涨售价，市场需求依然强劲，帮助 Mac 业务销售仍年增 29%。

今年因全球记忆体供应吃紧，苹果已调涨 Mac 与 iPad 售价，消费者也纷纷赶在 iPhone 涨价前提前购机。目前苹果尚未调高 iPhone 售价，但华尔街分析师普遍预期，公司最快可能于 9 月秋季新品发表会调涨 iPhone 价格。

4、服务、大中华业绩逊

服务和 iPad 业绩则让市场失望，作为苹果第二大业务的服务事业包括 App Store、iCloud 及内容服务，上季营收年增 12.1% 至 307.4 亿美元，低于市场预估的 312.2 亿美元。

D.A. Davidson 分析师 Gil Luria 表示，服务业务成长已有放缓迹象，投资人担心，如果服务营收在 iPhone 仍维持逾 20% 成长时就开始放缓，等到 iPhone 成长回归正常后，服务事业恐怕还会进一步降温。

iPad 营收则呈现下滑，库克归咎于去年同期推出的平价产品 A16 iPad，垫高比较基期。

各地区营收全面成长，其中大中华区营收年增 22.4% 至 188.2 亿美元，但仍低于市场预期。

5、新品布局

苹果正准备在 9 月推出采用 Google(GOOGL-US) 技术、重新设计的 Siri，并搭配新款 iPhone 亮相。由于投资人担忧苹果在 AI 竞赛中已落后竞争对手，这将成为一场关键考验。

苹果也预定今年底至明年春季推出更多 Mac 及 iPad 新品，包括首款触控版 MacBook 及全新改款 iPad mini，可望进一步带动销售。

穿戴、居家用品及配件部分，未来几个月将推出新款 Apple Watch、智慧家庭中枢 (Home Hub) 及新版 Apple TV 等产品，进一步提振该业务。

这家消费电子巨擘也开始调整销售模式，本周二推出「Apple Upgrade」装置租赁计划，让消费者以类似汽车租赁方式订阅 iPhone、iPad 及 Mac，到期后可换新，有助降低近期涨价对消费者冲击。

6、特纳斯接班

在苹果任职 25 年的特纳斯，将于苹果第 4 季约三分之二时正式接任执行长。该季向来是苹果最重要的销售旺季，也是新款 iPhone 等主力产品上市时点，而他接任后最大的挑战，是带领苹果迎接 AI 时代。

特纳斯在法说会上表示：「AI 带来庞大机会，我们专注于自己的发展计划，对未来非常期待。」库克也表示，未来财报电话会议将由特纳斯主持。

新任执行长未来将推出多项新产品，包括首款折叠 iPhone、智慧眼镜等穿戴装置。

除此之外，特纳斯还必须补强高阶管理团队。随着多位资深主管接近退休，加上近年不少人才流向 OpenAI 等 AI 公司，如何稳定并扩充人才将是另一项重要挑战。

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Kevan Pare", "img": "https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6552521/l/d9644dd0f4e50b9041413a38b7cdb9b0.jpg", "content": "<p>苹果 (AAPL-US) 周四 (30 日) 盘后公布上季 (苹果会计年度第 3 季，6 月为止) 财报，整体营收获利优于预期，但受供应瓶颈影响，本季 (第 4 季，9 月为止) 财测让华尔街失望，盘后股价重挫逾 6%，这也显示整体产业供应链吃紧的冲击比市场预期更严重。本次财报电话会议的重点如下：</p>\n<p style=\"text-align:center;\"><img src=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6552521/l/d9644dd0f4e50b9041413a38b7cdb9b0.jpg\" alt=\"盘后跳水！苹果财报解读：零件短缺拖累财测、iPhone与Mac强攻、服务及大中华失色、特纳斯接班\" style=\"width:50%;height:auto;border-radius:6px;margin:15px auto;display:block;\"></p>\n\n\n<h6>1、财测失色</h6>\n\n<h6>Q4 财测关键数字 vs 分析师预测</h6>\n\n<ul>\n<li>营收增幅：9-11% vs 12%</li>\n<li>iPhone 营收增幅：14-16% vs 17.6%</li>\n<li> 毛利率：47-48%</li>\n</ul>\n\n<p>苹果财务长 Kevan Parekh 表示，苹果本季营收预估成长 9-11%，不如 LSEG 访调分析师所估的 12%，而该季通常是新款 iPhone 上市后的首个完整销售季度。</p>\n\n<p>此外，iPhone 营收成长预估增幅落在 14-16%，也逊于分析师预测的 17.6%，毛利率则预料将落在 47-48%。</p>\n\n<p>苹果同时预警，服务业务本季成长将放缓，并指出欧盟等地 App Store 新法规将带来冲击，因新法允许开发者直接向用户收取订阅费，绕过苹果抽成机制，此外，游戏业务收入也低于预期。 </p>\n\n<p>财报电话会议结束后不久，苹果股价一度下跌 6.8%，截稿前仍跌 6.3%。若跌幅维持至周五收盘，将创下苹果自 2014 年 1 月 28 日以来最大的财报后单日跌幅，当时跌幅为 8%。</p>\n\n<h6>2、「评估所有方案」因应供应瓶颈</h6>\n\n<p>在电话财报会议上，库克表示目前正面临「非常显著的供应限制」，供应链几乎没有足够弹性可迅速化解问题，苹果正在「评估所有方案」，寻找零组件替代供应来源。</p>\n\n<p>库克表示，供应限制本季将影响更多 Mac、iPhone 与 iPad 产品，汇率波动也将拖累成长。 </p>\n\n<p>他以「百年洪水」(100-year flood) 形容记忆体成本飙升，并表示晶片短缺主要来自 iPhone 与 Mac 需求远超预期，特别点名 iPhone 17 系列与平价笔电 MacBook Neo 需求强劲。 </p>\n\n<p>他说：「根本原因在于，这波产品周期的需求远超出我们原先预期，而先进晶片制造供应链本身的弹性不足，无法满足如此庞大的需求。」</p>\n\n<p>苹果也面临人工智慧 (AI) 资料中心投资热潮带来的供应链压力，导致与长期记忆体供应商美光 (MU-US) 之间的关系承受压力。库克曾指出，包括记忆体晶片，以及由台积电 (2330-TW) 代工的 iPhone 处理器都面临供应不足。</p>\n\n<h6>3、整体营收优预期，iPhone、Mac 强攻</h6>\n\n<p><strong><em>Q3(6 月 27 日止) 财报关键数字 vs 分析师预期</em></strong></p>\n\n<ul>\n<li>EPS：2.02 美元 vs 1.89 美元 (预测数字未含关税退款)</li>\n<li> 营收：1094.2 亿美元 (年增 16.4%) vs 1086.5 亿美元 </li>\n<li>毛利率：50.1% vs 47.9% (预测数字未含关税退款)</li>\n<li> 现金：1465.2 亿美元</li>\n</ul>\n\n<p><strong><em>各终端产品表现 vs. 分析师共识预期</em></strong></p>\n\n<ul>\n<li>iPhone 营收：542.5 亿美元 (年增 21.7%) vs 538.6 亿美元</li>\n<li> Mac 营收：103.5 亿美元 (年增 28.7%) vs 87.4 亿美元</li>\n<li> iPad 营收：61.9 亿美元 (年减 5.9%) vs 69.2 亿美元</li>\n<li>穿戴装置、居家用品及配件 (Wearables, Home and Accessories)：78.8 亿美元 (年增 6.5%) vs 78.2 亿美元</li>\n<li>服务营收：307.4 亿美元 (年增 12.1%) vs 312.2 亿美元</li>\n</ul>\n\n<p>苹果上季财报优于市场预期，在消费电子产品普遍涨价下，iPhone 与 MacBook 需求仍保持强劲，带动营收与获利双双优于预期，其中营收连三季交出至少 15% 的成长表现，净利虽然有川普政府关税退款的挹注，但扣除后仍优于分析师预期。</p>\n\n<p>上季最大成长动能仍来自 iPhone，营收年增 21.7% 至 542.5 亿美元，高于分析师预估的 538.6 亿美元，创下历年来最佳同期表现。第 3 季往往是 iPhone 销售淡季，因为时间点很接近秋季新机发表会。 </p>\n\n<p>Mac 表现远胜市场预期，即使入门款 MacBook Neo 与高阶 MacBook Pro 已调涨售价，市场需求依然强劲，帮助 Mac 业务销售仍年增 29%。</p>\n\n<p>今年因全球记忆体供应吃紧，苹果已调涨 Mac 与 iPad 售价，消费者也纷纷赶在 iPhone 涨价前提前购机。目前苹果尚未调高 iPhone 售价，但华尔街分析师普遍预期，公司最快可能于 9 月秋季新品发表会调涨 iPhone 价格。 </p>\n\n<h6>4、服务、大中华业绩逊</h6>\n\n<p>服务和 iPad 业绩则让市场失望，作为苹果第二大业务的服务事业包括 App Store、iCloud 及内容服务，上季营收年增 12.1% 至 307.4 亿美元，低于市场预估的 312.2 亿美元。</p>\n\n<p>D.A. Davidson 分析师 Gil Luria 表示，服务业务成长已有放缓迹象，投资人担心，如果服务营收在 iPhone 仍维持逾 20% 成长时就开始放缓，等到 iPhone 成长回归正常后，服务事业恐怕还会进一步降温。</p>\n\n<p>iPad 营收则呈现下滑，库克归咎于去年同期推出的平价产品 A16 iPad，垫高比较基期。</p>\n\n<p>各地区营收全面成长，其中大中华区营收年增 22.4% 至 188.2 亿美元，但仍低于市场预期。</p>\n\n<h6>5、新品布局</h6>\n\n<p>苹果正准备在 9 月推出采用 Google(GOOGL-US) 技术、重新设计的 Siri，并搭配新款 iPhone 亮相。由于投资人担忧苹果在 AI 竞赛中已落后竞争对手，这将成为一场关键考验。</p>\n\n<p>苹果也预定今年底至明年春季推出更多 Mac 及 iPad 新品，包括首款触控版 MacBook 及全新改款 iPad mini，可望进一步带动销售。</p>\n\n<p>穿戴、居家用品及配件部分，未来几个月将推出新款 Apple Watch、智慧家庭中枢 (Home Hub) 及新版 Apple TV 等产品，进一步提振该业务。</p>\n\n<p>这家消费电子巨擘也开始调整销售模式，本周二推出「Apple Upgrade」装置租赁计划，让消费者以类似汽车租赁方式订阅 iPhone、iPad 及 Mac，到期后可换新，有助降低近期涨价对消费者冲击。</p>\n\n<h6>6、特纳斯接班</h6>\n\n<p>在苹果任职 25 年的特纳斯，将于苹果第 4 季约三分之二时正式接任执行长。该季向来是苹果最重要的销售旺季，也是新款 iPhone 等主力产品上市时点，而他接任后最大的挑战，是带领苹果迎接 AI 时代。</p>\n\n<p>特纳斯在法说会上表示：「AI 带来庞大机会，我们专注于自己的发展计划，对未来非常期待。」库克也表示，未来财报电话会议将由特纳斯主持。</p>\n\n<p>新任执行长未来将推出多项新产品，包括首款折叠 iPhone、智慧眼镜等穿戴装置。</p>\n\n<p>除此之外，特纳斯还必须补强高阶管理团队。随着多位资深主管接近退休，加上近年不少人才流向 OpenAI 等 AI 公司，如何稳定并扩充人才将是另一项重要挑战。</p>\n<div class=\"related-articles seo-links\">\n <h4>相关阅读</h4>\n <ul>\n <li><a href=\"/new/mg/article-11511.html\" title=\"距发表还一个月！电商不怕临时改模抢先开卖折叠iPhone壳配件商打什么算盘？\">距发表还一个月！电商不怕临时改模抢先开卖折叠iPhone壳配件商打什么算盘？</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/new/mg/article-21557.html\" title=\"〈美股盘后〉Meta重燃AI交易恐慌费半狂泻近7% 台积电ADR跌超4.5%\">〈美股盘后〉Meta重燃AI交易恐慌费半狂泻近7% 台积电ADR跌超4.5%</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/new/mg/article-8636.html\" title=\"瑞银看波克夏仍有15%上涨空间苹果、可口可乐为功臣之一\">瑞银看波克夏仍有15%上涨空间苹果、可口可乐为功臣之一</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/new/mg/article-15779.html\" title=\"〈美股盘后〉AI巨头齐喊「踩煞车」股债双杀费半惨崩近6% 台积电ADR跌3.5%\">〈美股盘后〉AI巨头齐喊「踩煞车」股债双杀费半惨崩近6% 台积电ADR跌3.5%</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/new/mg/article-6423.html\" title=\"记忆体大厂产能竞赛引发周期性担忧美光股价应声下跌\">记忆体大厂产能竞赛引发周期性担忧美光股价应声下跌</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/new/mg/article-18730.html\" title=\"老债王葛洛斯警告：勿碰长债、当心股市债券只留这个「例外」\">老债王葛洛斯警告：勿碰长债、当心股市债券只留这个「例外」</a></li>\n </ul>\n</div>", "status": 0, "pv": 77, "link": "https://news.cnyes.com/news/id/6552521", "createdAt": "2026-07-31T00:03:53.000Z", "updatedAt": "2026-10-30T09:33:34.000Z" }, "position": [ { "id": 15, "pid": 0, "name": "热点新闻", "pinyin": "new", "path": "/new", "orderBy": 0, "target": "0", "status": "0", "listView": "list.html", "articleView": "article.html", "seoTitle": "", "seoKeywords": "", "seoDescription": "", "type": "0", "dataConfig": null, "children": [ { "id": 25, "pid": 15, "name": "美股", "pinyin": "mg", "path": "/new/mg", "orderBy": 0, "target": "0", "status": "0", "listView": "list.html", "articleView": "article.html", "seoTitle": "", "seoKeywords": "", "seoDescription": "", "type": "0", "dataConfig": null, "level": 1 }, { "id": 26, "pid": 15, "name": "港股", "pinyin": "hk", "path": "/new/hk", "orderBy": 0, "target": "0", "status": "0", "listView": "list.html", "articleView": "article.html", "seoTitle": "", "seoKeywords": "", "seoDescription": "", "type": "0", "dataConfig": null, "level": 1 }, { "id": 27, "pid": 15, "name": "台股", "pinyin": "tw", "path": "/new/tw", "orderBy": 0, "target": "0", "status": "0", "listView": "list.html", "articleView": "article.html", "seoTitle": "", "seoKeywords": "", "seoDescription": "", "type": "0", "dataConfig": null, "level": 1 }, { "id": 28, "pid": 15, "name": "科技", "pinyin": "AI", "path": "/new/AI", "orderBy": 0, "target": "0", "status": "0", "listView": "list.html", "articleView": "article.html", "seoTitle": "", "seoKeywords": "", "seoDescription": "", "type": "0", "dataConfig": null, "level": 1 } ], "level": 1 }, { "id": 25, "pid": 15, "name": "美股", "pinyin": "mg", "path": "/new/mg", "orderBy": 0, "target": "0", "status": "0", "listView": "list.html", "articleView": "article.html", "seoTitle": "", "seoKeywords": "", "seoDescription": "", "type": "0", "dataConfig": null, "level": 1 } ], "_locals": {}, "cache": false }