【跨年度做梦行情】友达、联亚、台达电、联发科非首选？这几档才是下一档飙股？

每年的第四季到隔年第一季。这段期间，就是台股一年一度最狂热、最迷人的「跨年度做梦行情」！也就是说第四季台股最迷人的戏码从来不是现在赚多少，而是「未来能赚多久」。

但你要搞清楚，主力与法人大户绝对不是盲目乱做梦。真正能激发出双位数、甚至倍数爆发行情的，一定是「远期技术的无边想像空间」加上「近期业业绩即将放量」的黄金交集！

现在的 AI 晶片，运算速度快到连传统铜线、有机载板与旧电力系统都快「吐血」撑不住。当算力狂飙撞上了实体物理极限，谁能帮辉达等巨头解决这些烧脑瓶颈，谁就是未来两三年股市里最闪耀的巨星！

一、玻璃基板：把「木板桥」换成「钢骨大桥」

传统有机载板（ABF）就像老旧木桥，AI晶片越做越大、HBM堆得越多，热翘曲与讯号损耗就成了硬伤。玻璃基板则像用高强度钢骨加玻璃打造的超平整大桥，耐高温、不变形，讯号传输距离更短、密度更高。

辉达正在积极评估把玻璃基板导入下一代AI晶片封装，目标最快2028年前落地。台湾面板双虎凭借三十年大尺寸玻璃加工与精密布线经验，已经抢先卡位。

友达(2409-TW)与康宁合作，在半导体展展示大尺寸玻璃核心基板技术；群创(3481-TW)的Chip-first封装已进入量产，TGV技术也同步与客户验证。正达(3149-TW)、TPK-KY(3673-TW)、钛升(8027-TW)、东捷(8064-TW)、雷科(6207-TW)等设备与加工厂，都在试产与交机阶段。

二、光通讯与CPO：把「国道塞车」换成「光速高铁」

当传输速率从800G迈向1.6T甚至3.2T，铜线就像尖峰时刻的国道，不仅耗电发热像爆米花，讯号衰减更是无法接受。CPO（共封装光学）的逻辑很直白：把原本插在伺服器门口的光模组，直接搬到算力晶片身边「共封装」。路径变短，损耗大降，功耗直接省掉三成以上。

加上美系大厂对中国供应链的限制升温，转单效应正在发酵。台厂同时迎来「既有800G/1.6T产品放量」与「新架构导入」的重叠成长期。联亚(3081-TW)在矽光子雷射晶片已经进入大量量产；上诠(3363-TW)针对CPO光纤阵列元件积极验证与量产准备；华星光(4979-TW)、泛诠(6830-TW)、波若威(3163-TW)、智邦(2345-TW)、光圣(6442-TW)都在订单能见度上看到未来几年的能见度。

三、800V AI供电与BBU：给算力怪兽装上「不断电保险心脏」

你家买了一台一万瓦的超大冷气，还硬插在110V旧插座上，结果会怎样？一开机保证跳电烧熔。AI伺服器现在就是这种吃电怪兽，机柜功率一路往上冲，传统电源架构已经撑不住。

解决方案很明确：升级到800V高压直流供电，同时把电池备援模组（BBU/DBU）从选配变成标准配备。辉达新一代伺服器架构已经把BBU列为必要元件，为的就是防止极端高负载时跳电，让价值连城的训练资料一秒蒸发。

台达电(2308-TW)直接与辉达合作，从中压配电、固态变压器、800V Power Rack到液冷系统，提供完整解决方案，并把庞大订单往上游释放。新盛力(4931-TW)、顺达(3211-TW)、AES-KY(6781-TW)等电池模组厂，则直接受惠于BBU渗透率的陡峭攀升。这不是单一产品升级，而是整条电力链从架构到备援的全面重做。BBU外，还有电源相关的功率元件的台半(5425-TW)、强茂(2481-TW)、富鼎(8261-TW)、德微(3675-TW)也值的特别留意。

四、AI ASIC：从「量贩店现成成衣」走向「顶级高级订制服」

过去云端巨头几乎都买辉达通用GPU，价格贵、功耗高，还不一定最契合自家演算法。现在大家纷纷转向开发自己的AI ASIC，就像量身打造的高级订制服，既省电又高效。

联发科(2454-TW)今年第四季正式启动第一个AI ASIC专案量产，目标资料中心相关营收上看二十亿美元以上。一旦第一个专案成功，后续第二代、第三代与新客户将陆续加入，形成「多客户、多世代」的长波段成长。创意(3443-TW)、世芯-KY(3661-TW)、智原(3035-TW)等设计服务与矽智财厂，也同步受惠于这股客制化浪潮。

这类技术升级不是一次出货就结束，而是持续迭代、持续放量的长线故事。所以把四大题材放在一起，你会发现一件非常有意思的事情：

⊙AI算力往上冲 → 封装变大 → 玻璃基板受关注；

⊙资料传输变快 → 铜线遇到瓶颈 → CPO、矽光子升级；

⊙AI机柜功率暴增 → 800V供电＋BBU成为基础建设；

⊙大型CSP追求更高效率 → AI ASIC开始进入量产周期。

这四条线，其实都在做同一件事：帮AI突破下一个物理极限。而这正是第四季到隔年第一季「做梦行情」最值得研究的地方。

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文章来源：摩尔投顾－江国中分析师

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