别怕连假前短线卖压、金像电、世芯、大立光、鸿海

一、盘势结构：高档震荡，个股轮动成主轴

台股今日呈现「高档震荡、个股表现」格局，盘中最高来到 49,968点，距离5万点仅32点，终场上涨110点、收 49,822点，成交值约 9,774亿元。
虽然5万点关卡前「近关情怯」，KD、RSI位于高档，短线震荡与获利了结压力难免，但指数仍维持高档收红，多头架构并未遭到破坏。
目前更重要的讯号不是指数能否天天上涨，而是资金是否持续由高档股转向低基期、具基本面支撑的族群，近期盘面已明显呈现此一现象。

二、基本面：AI需求仍是台股最大底气

台湾8月外销订单达 1,029.6亿美元，首度突破千亿美元，年增71.4%，前8月累计7,049.9亿美元、年增55%，经济部并认为9～12月仍有机会维持单月千亿美元水准。
AI伺服器、ASIC、高速传输、先进封装与光通讯需求持续扩张，加上第四季传统旺季与新品拉货，基本面仍提供台股中期多头重要支撑。
因此，现阶段比较合理的解读是「指数高档、基本面续强、资金加速轮动」，而非行情已经结束。

三、法说行情：10月将是多头重要验证期

**大立光（3008-TW）**将于10月8日法说，9月营收57.79亿元、月增15%，公司先前揭露CPO已有FA量产订单，最快2027年中量产，CPO进度将成市场焦点。
**台积电（2330-TW）**将于10月15日召开第三季法说，市场聚焦Q4展望、2奈米／A14进度、先进制程需求与价格，以及AI晶片需求能见度。公司原先对Q3营收展望为446～458亿美元。
近期法人亦预期台积电Q3获利有机会再创高，科技法说与9月营收公布，将成为台股突破5万点的重要催化剂。

四、选股方向：从「追高」转向「低基期轮动」

主轴仍锁定 ASIC、PCB/CCL、ABF载板、CPO、矽晶圆、被动元件、先进封装设备、低轨卫星与电力等AI供应链。
近期CCL、PCB、光通讯及CoWoS等强势股持续创高，但部分涨幅过大的个股已出现剧烈震荡，显示高档追价风险正在升高。
资金开始转进世芯（3661-TW）、金像电（2368-TW）、GIS-KY（6456-TW）、华新科（2492-TW）、钰邦（6449-TW）、万润（6187-TW）、旭然（4556-TW）、永光（1711-TW）、磐亚（4707-TW）、德渊（4720-TW）、三福化（4755-TW）、松川精（7788-TW）、冠西电（2466-TW）、达兴材（5234-TW）、光洋科（1785-TW）、升达科（3491-TW）、启碁（6285-TW）、力成（6239-TW）等低基期或转机型标的，说明「市场资金永远会找对的出路」。
操作策略宜由「看到大涨就追」转为「反弹汰弱留强、拉回低接优质股」，优先选择有实际订单、营收成长、获利能见度高且产业趋势明确者。

五、后市研判：5万点近在眼前，但风险控管更重要

目前台股均线仍呈多头排列，短线即使出现震荡，只要没有爆量长黑掼破月线、季线，多头趋势仍可视为延续。
5万点属重大心理关卡，突破后可能引发追价，但也容易出现获利了结，因此「突破不追高、拉回敢低接」将比单纯猜指数高点更重要。
若后续台积电法说、企业获利与AI需求持续优于预期，则5万点有机会由压力转为支撑，行情仍具续攻 52K～53K 的条件；反之，若爆量长黑并跌破中期均线，则需提高防守比重。
总结：现在不是全面追价的时候，而是强者恒强、弱者淘汰的选股行情。指数越接近5万点，越要把焦点放在「低基期＋高成长＋有订单＋有获利」的公司。

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文章来源：伦元投顾陈学进分析师

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1,029.6亿美元，首度突破千亿美元，年增71.4%，前8月累计7,049.9亿美元、年增55%，经济部并认为9～12月仍有机会维持单月千亿美元水准。</li>\n<li>AI伺服器、ASIC、高速传输、先进封装与光通讯需求持续扩张，加上第四季传统旺季与新品拉货，基本面仍提供台股中期多头重要支撑。</li>\n<li>因此，现阶段比较合理的解读是「指数高档、基本面续强、资金加速轮动」，而非行情已经结束。</li>\n</ol>\n\n三、法说行情：10月将是多头重要验证期\n\n<ol>\n<li>**大立光（3008-TW）**将于10月8日法说，9月营收57.79亿元、月增15%，公司先前揭露CPO已有FA量产订单，最快2027年中量产，CPO进度将成市场焦点。</li>\n<li>**台积电（2330-TW）**将于10月15日召开第三季法说，市场聚焦Q4展望、2奈米／A14进度、先进制程需求与价格，以及AI晶片需求能见度。公司原先对Q3营收展望为446～458亿美元。</li>\n<li>近期法人亦预期台积电Q3获利有机会再创高，科技法说与9月营收公布，将成为台股突破5万点的重要催化剂。</li>\n</ol>\n\n四、选股方向：从「追高」转向「低基期轮动」\n\n<ol>\n<li>主轴仍锁定 ASIC、PCB/CCL、ABF载板、CPO、矽晶圆、被动元件、先进封装设备、低轨卫星与电力等AI供应链。</li>\n<li>近期CCL、PCB、光通讯及CoWoS等强势股持续创高，但部分涨幅过大的个股已出现剧烈震荡，显示高档追价风险正在升高。</li>\n<li>资金开始转进世芯（3661-TW）、金像电（2368-TW）、GIS-KY（6456-TW）、华新科（2492-TW）、钰邦（6449-TW）、万润（6187-TW）、旭然（4556-TW）、永光（1711-TW）、磐亚（4707-TW）、德渊（4720-TW）、三福化（4755-TW）、松川精（7788-TW）、冠西电（2466-TW）、达兴材（5234-TW）、光洋科（1785-TW）、升达科（3491-TW）、启碁（6285-TW）、力成（6239-TW）等低基期或转机型标的，说明「市场资金永远会找对的出路」。</li>\n<li>操作策略宜由「看到大涨就追」转为「反弹汰弱留强、拉回低接优质股」，优先选择有实际订单、营收成长、获利能见度高且产业趋势明确者。</li>\n</ol>\n\n五、后市研判：5万点近在眼前，但风险控管更重要\n\n<ol>\n<li>目前台股均线仍呈多头排列，短线即使出现震荡，只要没有爆量长黑掼破月线、季线，多头趋势仍可视为延续。</li>\n<li>5万点属重大心理关卡，突破后可能引发追价，但也容易出现获利了结，因此「突破不追高、拉回敢低接」将比单纯猜指数高点更重要。</li>\n<li>若后续台积电法说、企业获利与AI需求持续优于预期，则5万点有机会由压力转为支撑，行情仍具续攻 52K～53K 的条件；反之，若爆量长黑并跌破中期均线，则需提高防守比重。</li>\n<li>总结：现在不是全面追价的时候，而是强者恒强、弱者淘汰的选股行情。指数越接近5万点，越要把焦点放在「低基期＋高成长＋有订单＋有获利」的公司。</li>\n</ol>\n\n<div>\n<hr></div>\n\n经历9月洗盘磨人的行情\n\n进入10月要怎么延续战果?\n\n【重磅预告】我们现在正要进场布局\n\n10月准备起飞「2档主力锁码飙股」\n\n你绝对不能再缺席\n\n是你第四季财富翻倍的关键\n\n看好年底将有一波作梦行情\n\n报告要送给所有的粉丝朋友\n\n有时间的投资好朋友\n\n记得要拨时间看一下\n\n每一档飙股都是我精挑细选\n\n产业深度研究而来的\n\n现在你要做的事情超简单\n\n就是点击下方连结网址\n\n【神奇宝贝】主力飙股完全攻略\n\n让股市大师兄【陈学进】\n\n亲自打通您的财富任督二脉\n\n涨停再涨停这档空间会更大\n\n火速免费索取【十月起涨名单】\n\n<a href=\"https://forms.gle/d5haJvFQfvBsQGv28\">https://forms.gle/d5haJvFQfvBsQGv28</a>\n\n<img data-height=\"570\" data-ratio=\"1.3333333333333333\" data-src-m=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6622789/m/5a65c343c5d9cd051924175a3544b7e7.jpg\" data-width=\"760\" src=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6622789/l/5a65c343c5d9cd051924175a3544b7e7.jpg\">\n\n<img data-height=\"570\" data-ratio=\"1.3333333333333333\" data-src-m=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6622789/m/41fa410b0dfa28e60c7ce0ba3582c9a5.jpg\" data-width=\"760\" src=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6622789/l/41fa410b0dfa28e60c7ce0ba3582c9a5.jpg\">\n\n<img data-height=\"570\" data-ratio=\"1.3333333333333333\" data-src-m=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6622789/m/83aeb88a02f62ac00b1787810dbf5d1e.jpg\" data-width=\"760\" src=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6622789/l/83aeb88a02f62ac00b1787810dbf5d1e.jpg\">\n\n<img data-height=\"570\" data-ratio=\"1.3333333333333333\" data-src-m=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6622789/m/a48072a591098c044b50c620930605ff.jpg\" data-width=\"760\" src=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6622789/l/a48072a591098c044b50c620930605ff.jpg\">\n\n<img data-height=\"570\" data-ratio=\"1.3333333333333333\" data-src-m=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6622789/m/6c70d4db1cd9ca5fa086e2c6d6bb6f54.jpg\" data-width=\"760\" src=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6622789/l/6c70d4db1cd9ca5fa086e2c6d6bb6f54.jpg\">\n\n<div style=\"position:relative;padding-bottom:56.25%;padding-top:30px;height:0;overflow:hidden;\"><iframe allowfullscreen=\"\" frameborder=\"0\" height=\"360\" src=\"//www.youtube.com/embed/9ExbJZFbDos\" style=\"position: absolute;top: 0;left: 0;width: 100%;height: 100%;\" width=\"640\"></iframe></div>\n\n工商时报绩效竞赛13冠王、卓越绩效傲视同业、专业实力有目共赌！\n\n更多第一手讯息、以及飙股机会→请加入大师兄飙股鑫天地的大家族\n\nLINE@连结网址：<a href=\"https://line.me/R/ti/p/@gold99\">https://line.me/R/ti/p/%40gold99</a>\n\nTelegram连结网址：<a href=\"https://t.me/gold0999\">https://t.me/gold0999</a>\n\nFB连结网址：<a href=\"https://www.facebook.com/groups/newleechou?locale=zh_TW\">https</a><a href=\"https://www.facebook.com/groups/newleechou?locale=zh_TW\">://</a><a href=\"https://www.facebook.com/groups/newleechou?locale=zh_TW\">www.facebook.com/groups/newleechou?locale=zh_TW</a>\n\nYT个人专属频道：<a href=\"mailto:youtube.com/@master55688\">youtube.com/@master55688</a>\n\n举手之劳、记得！按赞、订阅、分享、开启小铃铛\n\n让更多人可以看见我们的影片\n\n咨询专线02-2321-9933(24小时专人服务)\n\n<img data-height=\"485\" data-ratio=\"1.5670103092783505\" data-src-m=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6622789/m/96d46eff1b1f620a47dd1f3172107d47.jpg\" data-width=\"760\" src=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6622789/l/96d46eff1b1f620a47dd1f3172107d47.jpg\">\n\n文章来源：伦元投顾陈学进分析师\n\n本公司所推荐分析之个别有价证券 \n无不当之财务利益关系以往之绩效不保证未来获利 \n投资人应独立判断审慎评估并自负投资风险<div class=\"related-articles seo-links\">\n <h4>相关阅读</h4>\n <ul>\n <li><a href=\"/new/tw/article-265.html\" title=\"爱地雅首季每股净值跌破5元 OTC：5/20起改列全额交割\">爱地雅首季每股净值跌破5元 OTC：5/20起改列全额交割</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/new/tw/article-12703.html\" title=\"台股月线失而复得量缩震荡现转机？半导体展前夕「高胜率名单」准备接棒！\">台股月线失而复得量缩震荡现转机？半导体展前夕「高胜率名单」准备接棒！</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/new/tw/article-8548.html\" title=\"易威完成股份转换并购健亚正式启动「台美整合型制药平台」\">易威完成股份转换并购健亚正式启动「台美整合型制药平台」</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/new/tw/article-8251.html\" title=\"巨亨速报 - Factset 最新调查：信邦(3023-TW)EPS预估下修至14.8元，预估目标价为370元\">巨亨速报 - Factset 最新调查：信邦(3023-TW)EPS预估下修至14.8元，预估目标价为370元</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/new/tw/article-5653.html\" title=\"营收速报 - 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