全球疯杠杆！涨跌扩大，大跌1683点后市场分化，怎么应对？

投资朋友应该听过近期市场的消息，在台股持续创新高之下，出现「四贷同堂」甚至「六贷同堂」这种大幅拉高杠杆的操作模式，但这情况却不是台股独有。

根据美银（BofA）2026 年 6 月全球基金经理人调查（FMS）显示，80% 经理人认为「做多全球半导体」为目前市场最拥挤的交易，创下该项调查历史最高纪录，而今年 4 月份时仅 25%。

根据高盛数据，2026 年美国杠杆 ETF 日均成交量达到 450 亿美元，较去年同期大幅成长 50%，换手率达到 30%。杠杆 ETF 其中，三倍做多那斯达克指数 (TQQQ) 与三倍做多半导体指数 (SOXL) 资产规模分别 395.6 亿美元及 264.7 亿美元。

2026 年 2 月美国发行商有高达 179 件杠杆 ETF 提出申请，其中 3 倍杠杆有 39 件；4 倍杠杆有 106 件；5 倍杠杆有 34 件。并且绝大多数是单一个股，其次主题型，随后广义与产业型。为此美国 SEC 罕见召开一次简短的集体电话会议，要求发行商撤回申请，全数申请皆未通过，但已上市的不受影响。

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美国 5 月保证金债务月增 8.5%，年增 53.7%，达到创纪录的 1.42 兆美元，连续第二个月成长。保证金债务是指投资者透过保证金帐户向经纪商借入的资金。保证金债务与股市之间的关系存有正相关，从 2000 年网路泡沫至今，保证金债务规模的高低点与标普 500 指数的高低点具有关联性。

从基本面来看，美股与台股都尚未到真正的泡沫化，但市场过度杠杆与壅挤的交易，将会导致助涨与助跌，此时，投资朋友更不应该过度杠杆，即使是长多市场，也会面对多次短期或中期的修正与整理，只要做错方向一次，很可能在春暖花开之前，就被清除出市场。

台股上周五修正 1683 点，不用太多担心，台积电将是台股的定海神针，面对市场不确定性时，台积电及台积电占比高的 ETF 都是投资朋友可以留意的标的。但经过上周五的大跌，后续走势分化加大，部分产业与个股将领先止稳，但部分强势股将走向中期的整理，本周将是重要关键，投资朋友可以留意如下：技术面上，连三日不破低的个股；守月线较大盘强势股。基本面上，具有高毛利与高营收占比的 AI 产业，且掌握下一代新高阶技术或材料的个股。

再度提醒投资朋友不要过度杠杆，想要成为长期的赢家，就又注意风险的控管。市场的修正是个好机会，后续该如何操作？那些产业与个股走弱？该怎么换股？想要掌握下波段强势股，欢迎加入 Line @

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文章来源：摩尔投顾－叶俊敏分析师

本公司所推荐分析之个别有价证券无不当之财务利益关系以往之绩效不保证未来获利投资人应独立判断审慎评估并自负投资风险

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