野村投信台股操盘人笔记--评价与筹码加速修正，寻找逢低布局机会

加权股价指数近 6 个月表现：（资料来源：Bloomberg，截至 2026/07/29）

野村脚勤观点：

两项市场杂音，不宜过度解读
近期市场杂音主要来自两方面：一是 NVIDIA 可能为 OpenAI 提供融资支持，引发市场对循环融资与信用风险的疑虑；二是中国在 AI 模型及国产 DUV 设备方面取得进展，市场担心全球 AI 供应链竞争加剧。然而就现阶段而言，前者 NVIDIA 无论融资规模或企业获利能力，整体信用风险仍在可控范围；后者中国 DUV 则仍处于发展初期，距离通过晶圆厂验证、达到稳定量产良率及大规模生产，仍有相当长的路要走。因此，两项事件对产业基本面的实质冲击均相对有限。事实上，以近期我们对供应链访查，AI 相关订单并未出现取消或明显下修，半导体与关键零组件的产能仍然偏紧，只要 CSP 扩大 AI 资本支出趋势没有改变，台湾供应链仍将持续受惠。

经理人视角：
大盘利多因素：
（一）AI 投资强劲：全球科技巨头持续上调 2026 年资本支出，AI 投资循环尚未见顶
（二）亚洲供应链续强：规格升级 + 缺货涨价趋势延续，企业能见度看至 2028 年，台湾供应链持续受惠
（三）获利动能上修：野村投信台股股票池 2026 全年整体 EPS 预估 + 64%，持续上修并领先全球主要股市
大盘利空因素：
（一）杠杆资金去化中：市场杠杆资金去化，等待融资维持率降至低点，短期股市仍有震荡风险
（二）非基本面杂音干扰：美伊战事 / 通膨压力 / 利率方向，相关变数持续为股市带来估值修正压力

评价与筹码加速修正，寻找逢低布局机会
在这波市场恐慌升温、指数加速赶底的过程中，加权指数未来一年的预期本益比已回落至过去三年平均水准，先前市场认为「台股太贵」的疑虑已经消失。与股价下跌相反的是，企业获利持续上修，彭博对 2026 年台股整体获利的预估在 7/28 创下历史新高，野村投信股票池 7 月最新预估亦将 2026 全年 EPS 成长上调至 + 64%，更加突显股价与基本面走势背离的状况。基本面未见放缓迹象，若股价持续下跌，评价面反而可能逐步进入超跌区间，这类由市场情绪与筹码压力所带来的修正，往往也是长期投资人重新布局好时机。因此，现阶段投资重点绝非恐慌杀低，而应开始思考布局策略，为下一波行情预作准备。产业方向上，可优先留意第三季后进入量产、供应链提前出货的 Vera Rubin 规格升级题材，以及下半年可望迎来首波显著涨价的被动元件，均是值得追踪并伺机逢低布局的方向。

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警语

注：文中涉及个别公司相关资讯仅供个别事件说明与评论，非为个股之推荐，投资人申购本基金系持有基金受益凭证，而非本文提及之投资资产或标的。投资人无法直接投资指数，本资料仅为市场历史数值统计概况说明，非基金绩效表现之预测。本文提及之经济走势预测不必然代表基金之绩效，基金投资风险请详阅基金公开说明书。
野村证券投资信托股份有限公司 110615 台北市信义路五段 7 号 30 楼 (台北 101 大楼) 客服专线：(02) 8758-1568 野村投资理财网：www.nomurafunds.com.tw 上述基金均经金管会核准或同意生效，惟不表示绝无风险。基金经理公司以往之经理绩效不保证基金之最低投资收益；基金经理公司除尽善良管理人之注意义务外，不负责本基金之盈亏，亦不保证最低之收益，投资人申购前应详阅基金公开说明书 (或投资人须知)。有关基金应负担之费用 (境外基金含分销费用) 已揭露于基金公开说明书或投资人须知中，本公司及销售机构均备有基金公开说明书 (或其中译本) 或投资人须知，投资人亦可至基金资讯观测站或本公司网站 (https://www.nomurafunds.com.tw) 中查询。基金买卖系以投资人自己之判断为之，投资人应了解并承担交易可能产生之损益，且最大可能损失达原始投资金额。基金不受存款保险、保险安定基金或其他相关保障机制之保障。如因基金交易所生纷争，台端应先向本公司申诉，如不接受前开申诉处理结果或本公司未在三十日内处理时，得在六十日内向金融消费评议中心申请评议。台端亦得向投信投顾公会申诉、向证券投资人及期货交易人保护中心申请调处或向法院起诉。基金投资风险包括但不限于類股过度集中之风险、产业景气循环之风险、流动性风险、外汇管制及汇率变动风险、投资地区政治、社会或经济变动之风险、商品交易对手之信用风险、与其他投资风险等，请详见基金公开说明书 (投资人须知)。基金可能投资承销股票，其可能风险为曝露于时间落差之风险，即缴款之后到股票挂牌上市上柜之前的风险。【野村投信独立经营管理】

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"", "seoDescription": "", "type": "0", "dataConfig": null, "level": 1 }, "article": { "id": 9314, "cid": 27, "subCid": null, "title": "野村投信台股操盘人笔记--评价与筹码加速修正，寻找逢低布局机会", "shortTitle": "野村投信台股操盘人笔记--评价与筹码加速修正，寻找逢低布局机", "tagId": "", "attr": "", "articleView": null, "source": null, "author": "网络", "description": "加权股价指数近 6 个月表现：（资料来源：Bloomberg，截至 2026/07/29）野村脚勤观点：两项市场杂音，不宜过度解读近期市场杂音主要来自两方面：一是 NVIDIA 可能为 OpenAI 提供融资支持，引发市场对循环融资与信用风险的疑虑；二是中国在 AI 模型及国产 DUV 设备方面取得进展，市场担心全球 AI 供应链竞争加剧。然而就现阶段而言，前者 NVIDIA 无论融资规模或企业获利能力，整体信用风险仍在可控范围；后者中国 DUV 则仍处于发展初期，距离通过晶圆厂验证、达到", "img": "https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6552264/l/f61b4991e59fd638a1c37ddbb2b31d3e.jpg", "content": "加权股价指数近 6 个月表现：（资料来源：Bloomberg，截至 2026/07/29）\n<img src=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6552264/l/f61b4991e59fd638a1c37ddbb2b31d3e.jpg\" alt=\"野村投信台股操盘人笔记--评价与筹码加速修正，寻找逢低布局机会\" style=\"width:50%;height:auto;border-radius:6px;margin:15px auto;display:block;\">\n\n\n<figure><img data-height=\"170\" data-mime=\"image/png\" data-ratio=\"4.1117647058823525\" data-src-m=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6552264/m/9327914970087bb9be1072600aef80a4.jpg\" data-width=\"699\" src=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6552264/l/9327914970087bb9be1072600aef80a4.jpg\"></figure>\n\n野村脚勤观点：\n\n两项市场杂音，不宜过度解读 \n近期市场杂音主要来自两方面：一是 NVIDIA 可能为 OpenAI 提供融资支持，引发市场对循环融资与信用风险的疑虑；二是中国在 AI 模型及国产 DUV 设备方面取得进展，市场担心全球 AI 供应链竞争加剧。然而就现阶段而言，前者 NVIDIA 无论融资规模或企业获利能力，整体信用风险仍在可控范围；后者中国 DUV 则仍处于发展初期，距离通过晶圆厂验证、达到稳定量产良率及大规模生产，仍有相当长的路要走。因此，两项事件对产业基本面的实质冲击均相对有限。事实上，以近期我们对供应链访查，AI 相关订单并未出现取消或明显下修，半导体与关键零组件的产能仍然偏紧，只要 CSP 扩大 AI 资本支出趋势没有改变，台湾供应链仍将持续受惠。\n\n经理人视角： \n大盘利多因素： \n（一）AI 投资强劲：全球科技巨头持续上调 2026 年资本支出，AI 投资循环尚未见顶 \n（二）亚洲供应链续强：规格升级 + 缺货涨价趋势延续，企业能见度看至 2028 年，台湾供应链持续受惠 \n（三）获利动能上修：野村投信台股股票池 2026 全年整体 EPS 预估 + 64%，持续上修并领先全球主要股市 \n大盘利空因素： \n（一）杠杆资金去化中：市场杠杆资金去化，等待融资维持率降至低点，短期股市仍有震荡风险 \n（二）非基本面杂音干扰：美伊战事 / 通膨压力 / 利率方向，相关变数持续为股市带来估值修正压力\n\n评价与筹码加速修正，寻找逢低布局机会 \n在这波市场恐慌升温、指数加速赶底的过程中，加权指数未来一年的预期本益比已回落至过去三年平均水准，先前市场认为「台股太贵」的疑虑已经消失。与股价下跌相反的是，企业获利持续上修，彭博对 2026 年台股整体获利的预估在 7/28 创下历史新高，野村投信股票池 7 月最新预估亦将 2026 全年 EPS 成长上调至 + 64%，更加突显股价与基本面走势背离的状况。基本面未见放缓迹象，若股价持续下跌，评价面反而可能逐步进入超跌区间，这类由市场情绪与筹码压力所带来的修正，往往也是长期投资人重新布局好时机。因此，现阶段投资重点绝非恐慌杀低，而应开始思考布局策略，为下一波行情预作准备。产业方向上，可优先留意第三季后进入量产、供应链提前出货的 Vera Rubin 规格升级题材，以及下半年可望迎来首波显著涨价的被动元件，均是值得追踪并伺机逢低布局的方向。\n\n<a href=\"https://money.nomurafunds.com.tw/articles.html?c=8&utm_source=cnYES&utm_medium=text&utm_campaign=Campaignsite&utm_content=articles\">阅读更多精彩文章</a>\n\n【野村投信赞助刊登】\n\n警语\n\n注：文中涉及个别公司相关资讯仅供个别事件说明与评论，非为个股之推荐，投资人申购本基金系持有基金受益凭证，而非本文提及之投资资产或标的。投资人无法直接投资指数，本资料仅为市场历史数值统计概况说明，非基金绩效表现之预测。本文提及之经济走势预测不必然代表基金之绩效，基金投资风险请详阅基金公开说明书。 \n野村证券投资信托股份有限公司 110615 台北市信义路五段 7 号 30 楼 (台北 101 大楼) 客服专线：(02) 8758-1568 野村投资理财网：<a href=\"http://www.nomurafunds.com.tw\">www.nomurafunds.com.tw</a> 上述基金均经金管会核准或同意生效，惟不表示绝无风险。基金经理公司以往之经理绩效不保证基金之最低投资收益；基金经理公司除尽善良管理人之注意义务外，不负责本基金之盈亏，亦不保证最低之收益，投资人申购前应详阅基金公开说明书 (或投资人须知)。有关基金应负担之费用 (境外基金含分销费用) 已揭露于基金公开说明书或投资人须知中，本公司及销售机构均备有基金公开说明书 (或其中译本) 或投资人须知，投资人亦可至基金资讯观测站或本公司网站 (https://www.nomurafunds.com.tw) 中查询。基金买卖系以投资人自己之判断为之，投资人应了解并承担交易可能产生之损益，且最大可能损失达原始投资金额。基金不受存款保险、保险安定基金或其他相关保障机制之保障。如因基金交易所生纷争，台端应先向本公司申诉，如不接受前开申诉处理结果或本公司未在三十日内处理时，得在六十日内向金融消费评议中心申请评议。台端亦得向投信投顾公会申诉、向证券投资人及期货交易人保护中心申请调处或向法院起诉。基金投资风险包括但不限于類股过度集中之风险、产业景气循环之风险、流动性风险、外汇管制及汇率变动风险、投资地区政治、社会或经济变动之风险、商品交易对手之信用风险、与其他投资风险等，请详见基金公开说明书 (投资人须知)。基金可能投资承销股票，其可能风险为曝露于时间落差之风险，即缴款之后到股票挂牌上市上柜之前的风险。【野村投信独立经营管理】\n<div class=\"related-articles seo-links\">\n <h4>相关阅读</h4>\n <ul>\n <li><a href=\"/new/tw/article-19391.html\" title=\"营收速报 - 均豪(5443)9月营收6.62亿元年增率高达55.15％\">营收速报 - 均豪(5443)9月营收6.62亿元年增率高达55.15％</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/new/tw/article-3767.html\" title=\"辉达800V电源架构Q3起备货 Rubin Ultra世代扩大采用\">辉达800V电源架构Q3起备货 Rubin Ultra世代扩大采用</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/new/tw/article-6524.html\" title=\"盘中速报 - 柜买市场加权指数下跌-16.48点至403.42点，跌幅3.92%\">盘中速报 - 柜买市场加权指数下跌-16.48点至403.42点，跌幅3.92%</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/new/tw/article-10963.html\" 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