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〈纽约汇市〉美元维持逾一年高点 升息预期较一周前大幅升温

2026-10-27 15:58:44 网络 阅读(140)

美元周二 (23 日) 走强,维持在逾一年来高点附近,市场持续消化美国联准会 (Fed) 上周意外转趋鹰派的讯号。此外,全球科技股遭抛售,也促使投资人从风险性股票转向包括货币在内的其他资产。

〈纽约汇市〉美元维持逾一年高点 升息预期较一周前大幅升温

纽约尾盘,追踪美元兑六种主要货币的美元指数 (DXY) 上涨 0.4%,报 101.39,创 2025 年 5 月中旬以来最高水准。

根据 CME FedWatch 工具,市场预期联准会在 7 月货币政策会议升息 1 码的机率已升至 36% 以上,而一周前仅为 8.5%。展望 12 月会议,交易员对联准会升息的预期也明显高于一周前。

这波激烈的市场重新定价,主要源于联准会上周三公布的《经济预测摘要》远比市场预期更加鹰派。更新后的点阵图显示,至少半数联邦公开市场委员会 (FOMC) 成员预期今年将升息,以对抗伊朗战争导致油价飙升所引发的通膨冲击。

尽管近期油价已明显回落,但点阵图所反映的货币政策展望已从原本预期至少降息两次,转变为 2026 年至少升息一次。

Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management 投资长 Brent Schutte 周一表示,「在联准会会议之前,市场仅反映一次升息预期。如今市场预计首次升息将出现在 10 月会议,并在 2027 年 3 月前完全反映第二次升息。」

他指出,「虽然联准会紧缩政策过去常伴随经济衰退,但目前市场预期的紧缩幅度尚不足以单独导致经济失速,不过确实提高了相关风险。这项风险已开始反映在债市。过去一周,美国公债殖利率曲线进一步趋平,而历史上殖利率曲线趋平甚至倒挂,往往代表市场担忧政策可能过度紧缩。」

自联准会决议以来,对利率敏感的美国 2 年期公债殖利率持续上升,而 10 年期公债殖利率则有所回落,两者利差进一步缩窄。

在升息预期升温背景下,市场也关注周二公布的美国 6 月采购经理人指数 (PMI) 初值,以及周三将公布的美国第一季核心个人消费支出物价指数 (PCE) 修正值,其被普遍视为联准会最重视的通膨指标。

根据 S&P Global 数据,美国 6 月综合 PMI 产出指数由 5 月的 51.5 升至 52.2,创五个月新高。

伊朗核问题讯息矛盾

中东局势方面,市场也持续关注伊朗核问题最新发展。美国总统川普表示,「伊朗已经完全且彻底同意在未来长期接受最高等级的核设施检查 (无限期!)。这将确保『核诚信』。」

他并在 Truth Social 发文指出,「如果伊朗不同意,就不会有进一步谈判!基于此以及伊朗做出的其他重大让步,我已同意让荷姆兹海峡 (Strait of Hormuz) 保持开放,不再实施海上封锁。」

美国副总统范斯 (JD Vance) 周一曾表示,瑞士和平谈判已促成伊朗同意邀请国际原子能总署 (IAEA) 检查其核设施。

然而,伊朗官方媒体随后否认相关说法。伊朗外交部发言人 Esmaeil Baqaei 表示,并未与 IAEA 安排任何会面或核检查行程。

当记者询问伊朗声称未安排 IAEA 访查一事时,川普周二回应,「他们错了…… 他们私下已经告诉我们,我们百分之百确定会有核检查。如果他们说的是对的,我现在就会取消所有会议。」

日元徘徊 1986 年来最低水准

主要货币方面,日元持续承受贬值压力。美元兑日元报 161.58。

若汇率突破 161.96 日元兑 1 美元,日元将跌至 1986 年以来最弱水准,也使市场持续警戒东京当局可能进场干预汇市。

随着市场对日元快速贬值的忧虑升高,日本财务大臣片山皋月 (Satsuki Katayama) 周一已与美国财政部长贝森特 (Scott Bessent) 进行会谈。

欧元兑美元下跌 0.4%,至 1.1379 美元。

英镑兑美元下跌 0.4%,至 1.3201 美元。此前一天,英国首相施凯尔 (Keir Starmer) 宣布辞职,为英国市场再度增添政治不确定性。

截至台湾时间周三 (24 日) 约 5:50 价格:

  • 美元指数报 101.3548。-0.0189%
  • 欧元兑美元 (EUR/USD) 汇率报 1 欧元兑 1.1383 美元。+0.0176%
  • 英镑兑美元 (GBP/USD) 汇率报 1 英镑兑 1.3202 美元。-0.0076%
  • 澳币兑美元 (AUD/USD) 汇率报 1 澳币兑 0.6918 美元。+0.0289%
  • 美元兑加币 (USD/CAD) 汇率报 1 美元兑 1.4206 加币。-0.0211%
  • 美元兑日元 (USD/JPY) 汇率报 1 美元兑 161.5300 日元。-0.0248%

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    "description": "美元周二 (23 日) 走强,维持在逾一年来高点附近,市场持续消化美国联准会 (Fed) 上周意外转趋鹰派的讯号。此外,全球科技股遭抛售,也促使投资人从风险性股票转向包括货币在内的其他资产。",
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    "content": "<p>美元周二 (23 日) 走强,维持在逾一年来高点附近,市场持续消化美国联准会 (Fed) 上周意外转趋鹰派的讯号。此外,全球科技股遭抛售,也促使投资人从风险性股票转向包括货币在内的其他资产。</p>\n<p style=\"text-align:center;\"><img src=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6509327/l/77c6e7f26c79caff463cd72ab8285587.jpg\" alt=\"〈纽约汇市〉美元维持逾一年高点 升息预期较一周前大幅升温\" style=\"width:50%;height:auto;border-radius:6px;margin:15px auto;display:block;\"></p>\n\n\n<p>纽约尾盘,追踪美元兑六种主要货币的美元指数 (DXY) 上涨 0.4%,报 101.39,创 2025 年 5 月中旬以来最高水准。</p>\n\n<p>根据 CME FedWatch 工具,市场预期联准会在 7 月货币政策会议升息 1 码的机率已升至 36% 以上,而一周前仅为 8.5%。展望 12 月会议,交易员对联准会升息的预期也明显高于一周前。</p>\n\n<p>这波激烈的市场重新定价,主要源于联准会上周三公布的《经济预测摘要》远比市场预期更加鹰派。更新后的点阵图显示,至少半数联邦公开市场委员会 (FOMC) 成员预期今年将升息,以对抗伊朗战争导致油价飙升所引发的通膨冲击。</p>\n\n<p>尽管近期油价已明显回落,但点阵图所反映的货币政策展望已从原本预期至少降息两次,转变为 2026 年至少升息一次。</p>\n\n<p>Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management 投资长 Brent Schutte 周一表示,「在联准会会议之前,市场仅反映一次升息预期。如今市场预计首次升息将出现在 10 月会议,并在 2027 年 3 月前完全反映第二次升息。」</p>\n\n<p>他指出,「虽然联准会紧缩政策过去常伴随经济衰退,但目前市场预期的紧缩幅度尚不足以单独导致经济失速,不过确实提高了相关风险。这项风险已开始反映在债市。过去一周,美国公债殖利率曲线进一步趋平,而历史上殖利率曲线趋平甚至倒挂,往往代表市场担忧政策可能过度紧缩。」</p>\n\n<p>自联准会决议以来,对利率敏感的美国 2 年期公债殖利率持续上升,而 10 年期公债殖利率则有所回落,两者利差进一步缩窄。</p>\n\n<p>在升息预期升温背景下,市场也关注周二公布的美国 6 月采购经理人指数 (PMI) 初值,以及周三将公布的美国第一季核心个人消费支出物价指数 (PCE) 修正值,其被普遍视为联准会最重视的通膨指标。</p>\n\n<p>根据 S&P Global 数据,美国 6 月综合 PMI 产出指数由 5 月的 51.5 升至 52.2,创五个月新高。</p>\n\n<p><em><strong>伊朗核问题讯息矛盾</strong></em></p>\n\n<p>中东局势方面,市场也持续关注伊朗核问题最新发展。美国总统川普表示,「伊朗已经完全且彻底同意在未来长期接受最高等级的核设施检查 (无限期!)。这将确保『核诚信』。」</p>\n\n<p>他并在 Truth Social 发文指出,「如果伊朗不同意,就不会有进一步谈判!基于此以及伊朗做出的其他重大让步,我已同意让荷姆兹海峡 (Strait of Hormuz) 保持开放,不再实施海上封锁。」</p>\n\n<p>美国副总统范斯 (JD Vance) 周一曾表示,瑞士和平谈判已促成伊朗同意邀请国际原子能总署 (IAEA) 检查其核设施。</p>\n\n<p>然而,伊朗官方媒体随后否认相关说法。伊朗外交部发言人 Esmaeil Baqaei 表示,并未与 IAEA 安排任何会面或核检查行程。</p>\n\n<p>当记者询问伊朗声称未安排 IAEA 访查一事时,川普周二回应,「他们错了&hellip;&hellip; 他们私下已经告诉我们,我们百分之百确定会有核检查。如果他们说的是对的,我现在就会取消所有会议。」</p>\n\n<p><em><strong>日元徘徊</strong><strong> 1986</strong><strong> 年来最低水准</strong></em></p>\n\n<p>主要货币方面,日元持续承受贬值压力。美元兑日元报 161.58。</p>\n\n<p>若汇率突破 161.96 日元兑 1 美元,日元将跌至 1986 年以来最弱水准,也使市场持续警戒东京当局可能进场干预汇市。</p>\n\n<p>随着市场对日元快速贬值的忧虑升高,日本财务大臣片山皋月 (Satsuki Katayama) 周一已与美国财政部长贝森特 (Scott Bessent) 进行会谈。</p>\n\n<p>欧元兑美元下跌 0.4%,至 1.1379 美元。</p>\n\n<p>英镑兑美元下跌 0.4%,至 1.3201 美元。此前一天,英国首相施凯尔 (Keir Starmer) 宣布辞职,为英国市场再度增添政治不确定性。</p>\n\n<p><em><strong>截至台湾时间周三 (24 日) 约 5:50 价格:</strong></em></p>\n\n<ul>\n<li><a href=\"https://invest.cnyes.com/index/GI/DXY\">美元指数</a>报 101.3548。-0.0189% </li>\n<li><a href=\"https://invest.cnyes.com/forex/detail/eurusd\">欧元</a>兑美元 (EUR/USD) 汇率报 1 <a href=\"https://invest.cnyes.com/forex/detail/eurusd\">欧元</a>兑 1.1383 美元。+0.0176% </li>\n<li><a href=\"https://invest.cnyes.com/forex/detail/gbpusd\">英镑</a>兑美元 (GBP/USD) 汇率报 1 <a href=\"https://invest.cnyes.com/forex/detail/gbpusd\">英镑</a>兑 1.3202 美元。-0.0076% </li>\n<li><a href=\"https://invest.cnyes.com/forex/detail/audusd\">澳币</a>兑美元 (AUD/USD) 汇率报 1 <a href=\"https://invest.cnyes.com/forex/detail/audusd\">澳币</a>兑 0.6918 美元。+0.0289%</li>\n<li> 美元兑<a href=\"https://invest.cnyes.com/forex/detail/cadusd\">加币</a> (USD/CAD) 汇率报 1 美元兑 1.4206 <a href=\"https://invest.cnyes.com/forex/detail/cadusd\">加币</a>。-0.0211%</li>\n<li> 美元兑<a href=\"https://invest.cnyes.com/forex/detail/jpyusd\">日元</a> (USD/JPY) 汇率报 1 美元兑 161.5300 <a href=\"https://invest.cnyes.com/forex/detail/jpyusd\">日元</a>。-0.0248%</li>\n</ul>\n<div class=\"related-articles seo-links\">\n  <h4>相关阅读</h4>\n  <ul>\n    <li><a href=\"/new/mg/article-9211.html\" title=\"苹果iPhone 18 Pro系列要变「史上最贵」?传售价暴涨300美元\">苹果iPhone 18 Pro系列要变「史上最贵」?传售价暴涨300美元</a></li>\n    <li><a href=\"/new/mg/article-19979.html\" title=\"美股牛市跑了四年 投资人为何不该轻易离场?\">美股牛市跑了四年 投资人为何不该轻易离场?</a></li>\n    <li><a href=\"/new/mg/article-5586.html\" title=\"美股牛市未完?高盛喊「别轻易下车」:AI成最大变数、震荡恐加剧\">美股牛市未完?高盛喊「别轻易下车」:AI成最大变数、震荡恐加剧</a></li>\n    <li><a href=\"/new/mg/article-863.html\" title=\"〈美股盘后〉美伊协议预期升温 油价大跌 三大指数今年首次同时创新高\">〈美股盘后〉美伊协议预期升温 油价大跌 三大指数今年首次同时创新高</a></li>\n    <li><a href=\"/new/mg/article-21012.html\" title=\"《路透》:疑中骇客用AI代理 入侵100多家企业网站\">《路透》:疑中骇客用AI代理 入侵100多家企业网站</a></li>\n    <li><a href=\"/new/mg/article-4817.html\" title=\"宏和科技14个月狂涨40倍!被逐出豪门30年后的他用「一块布」 打造市值逾1.1兆商业帝国\">宏和科技14个月狂涨40倍!被逐出豪门30年后的他用「一块布」 打造市值逾1.1兆商业帝国</a></li>\n  </ul>\n</div>",
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    "createdAt": "2026-06-23T21:53:59.000Z",
    "updatedAt": "2026-10-27T07:58:44.000Z"
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