以NVIDIA为首的供应链融资体系，正在逐渐扩大

没有政治归政治这回事，公司债抢资金，美国政府反而支持AI供应链融资

众所周知，AI买家大幅增发公司债，已经影响到公债的资金需求产生排挤效应，那由赚得钵满盆满的AI硬体厂商偕同金融机构，分别提供担保与融资资金，或许会是川普政府/贝森特反而乐见的情况，毕竟不会直接竞争债券基金的持股份额，如果将期中选举考量进去，压抑公债至少3~4个月是有其必要性的，那么降息无望短债不用想了，针对长债的动作频频也就不难理解。

因此8/10 NVIDIA与6家金融机构的协议达成，可以窥见人类史上全新样态的AI融资结构。也预期与川普政府关系良好的黄仁勋，这个担保融资体系，甚至可能在年底前得到美国政府宣扬与支持。

NVIDIA建立的担保/融资体系

NVIDIA与六大机构 Goldman Sachs, BlackRock, Blackstone, Apollo, Brookfield and KKR，商谈成立5000亿美元的融资资金池，资助建立AI 工厂所需的新金融体系。这避免了NVIDIA成为直接供应链融资的角色，承担的是担保角色，希望外部金融机构来作为融资方，提供资金。而这种担保、融资的体系当然历史悠久并非首见，但之所以称作人类史上首见，原因是我们必须接受未知与不确定性，接受一个大大大前提就是认可AI伺服器足以作为担保品。共识达成体系形成，共识破灭泡沫也就成形。

必须克服两个前提: 技术迭代过快、转移适用性

先看一个较为接近的案例，半导体扩厂的支出是巨额天价，这类的担保体系为何无法成形?就是因为半导体制造设备往往不愿被接受是好的担保品，因为这些年来设备、制程的技术进步都是飞速，会计帐上常见折旧年限适用5年，但技术迭代丝毫不停歇，试想一个情境，如果在N年，产业大热浪潮下购置的扩产设备，恰巧库存过剩发生在N+2年，等到N+3年产业去化库存完成，重新建立新的多头上升周期，在N+2~N+3这一年如果发生厂商倒闭或转让，基本上这个设备的二手价值有限，经常低于折旧会计上的直线折旧（Straight-line depreciation），甚至是倍数余额递减法（Double Declining Balance Method）残值，主因无非两个: 技术过时风险，以及转移的适用性不佳，毕竟拿到半导体设备，新的产线需要不同数据调教，没有长期累积或工程师配合很可能也无法发挥效用。

NVIDIA联盟总动员，本次财报季法说或多或少护航

包含黄仁勋也主张NVIDIA GPU可以运行不同公司的模型，并借此抨击ASIC，化解上一段所担忧的转移适用性，确保硬体可以在云端营运商之间转移，同时CUDA可以进行软体更新，使得旧有硬体GPU仍能持续产生收入，形成营收周期长尾与现金流保证。这些说词的核心目的都是为了说服纵使现有NVIDIA GPU原始买家发生财务危机与倒闭，其他AI营运商可以接手或收购。

在这个财报季，NVIDIA与其投资的关联公司，包含SpaceX(xAI)、NEBIUS、CoreWeave无不在法说会中或多或少赞扬NVIDIA，并强化AI残值，提到2020年的AI伺服器，仍可全额租用算力得类似说法，无非就是为了强化NVIDIA与小伙伴们，能撑在AI投资支出的浪潮上，不当第一个钱不够的买家。

（撰文者：永诚资产管理处分析师范振峰）

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"pinyin": "tw", "path": "/new/tw", "orderBy": 0, "target": "0", "status": "0", "listView": "list.html", "articleView": "article.html", "seoTitle": "", "seoKeywords": "", "seoDescription": "", "type": "0", "dataConfig": null, "level": 1 }, "article": { "id": 12328, "cid": 27, "subCid": null, "title": "以NVIDIA为首的供应链融资体系，正在逐渐扩大", "shortTitle": "以NVIDIA为首的供应链融资体系，正在逐渐扩大", "tagId": "", "attr": "", "articleView": null, "source": null, "author": "网络", "description": "没有政治归政治这回事，公司债抢资金，美国政府反而支持AI供应链融资众所周知，AI买家大幅增发公司债，已经影响到公债的资金需求产生排挤效应，那由赚得钵满盆满的AI硬体厂商偕同金融机构，分别提供担保与融资资金，或许会是川普政府/贝森特反而乐见的情况，毕竟不会直接竞争债券基金的持股份额，如果将期中选举考量进去，压抑公债至少3~4个月是有其必要性的，那么降息无望短债不用想了，针对长债的动作频频也就不难理解。因此8/10 NVIDIA与6家金融机构的协议达成，可以窥见人类史上全新样态的AI融资结构。也", "img": "https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6583662/l/6c76ee56b40ef028fc32e4e58217530d.jpg", "content": "没有政治归政治这回事，公司债抢资金，美国政府反而支持AI供应链融资\n<img src=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6583662/l/6c76ee56b40ef028fc32e4e58217530d.jpg\" alt=\"以NVIDIA为首的供应链融资体系，正在逐渐扩大\" style=\"width:50%;height:auto;border-radius:6px;margin:15px auto;display:block;\">\n\n\n众所周知，AI买家大幅增发公司债，已经影响到公债的资金需求产生排挤效应，那由赚得钵满盆满的AI硬体厂商偕同金融机构，分别提供担保与融资资金，或许会是川普政府/贝森特反而乐见的情况，毕竟不会直接竞争债券基金的持股份额，如果将期中选举考量进去，压抑公债至少3~4个月是有其必要性的，那么降息无望短债不用想了，针对长债的动作频频也就不难理解。\n\n因此8/10 NVIDIA与6家金融机构的协议达成，可以窥见人类史上全新样态的AI融资结构。也预期与川普政府关系良好的黄仁勋，这个担保融资体系，甚至可能在年底前得到美国政府宣扬与支持。\n\nNVIDIA建立的担保/融资体系\n\n<figure><img data-height=\"228\" data-mime=\"image/png\" data-ratio=\"3.3333333333333335\" data-src-m=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6583662/m/b84aa9319256c8b7ce0e6f6e3520be5a.jpg\" data-width=\"760\" src=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6583662/l/b84aa9319256c8b7ce0e6f6e3520be5a.jpg\"></figure>\n\nNVIDIA与六大机构 Goldman Sachs, BlackRock, Blackstone, Apollo, Brookfield and KKR，商谈成立5000亿美元的融资资金池，资助建立AI 工厂所需的新金融体系。这避免了NVIDIA成为直接供应链融资的角色，承担的是担保角色，希望外部金融机构来作为融资方，提供资金。而这种担保、融资的体系当然历史悠久并非首见，但之所以称作人类史上首见，原因是我们必须接受未知与不确定性，接受一个大大大前提就是认可AI伺服器足以作为担保品。共识达成体系形成，共识破灭泡沫也就成形。\n\n必须克服两个前提: 技术迭代过快、转移适用性\n\n先看一个较为接近的案例，半导体扩厂的支出是巨额天价，这类的担保体系为何无法成形?就是因为半导体制造设备往往不愿被接受是好的担保品，因为这些年来设备、制程的技术进步都是飞速，会计帐上常见折旧年限适用5年，但技术迭代丝毫不停歇，试想一个情境，如果在N年，产业大热浪潮下购置的扩产设备，恰巧库存过剩发生在N+2年，等到N+3年产业去化库存完成，重新建立新的多头上升周期，在N+2~N+3这一年如果发生厂商倒闭或转让，基本上这个设备的二手价值有限，经常低于折旧会计上的直线折旧（Straight-line depreciation），甚至是倍数余额递减法（Double Declining Balance Method）残值，主因无非两个: 技术过时风险，以及转移的适用性不佳，毕竟拿到半导体设备，新的产线需要不同数据调教，没有长期累积或工程师配合很可能也无法发挥效用。\n\nNVIDIA联盟总动员，本次财报季法说或多或少护航\n\n包含黄仁勋也主张NVIDIA GPU可以运行不同公司的模型，并借此抨击ASIC，化解上一段所担忧的转移适用性，确保硬体可以在云端营运商之间转移，同时CUDA可以进行软体更新，使得旧有硬体GPU仍能持续产生收入，形成营收周期长尾与现金流保证。这些说词的核心目的都是为了说服纵使现有NVIDIA GPU原始买家发生财务危机与倒闭，其他AI营运商可以接手或收购。\n\n<figure><img data-height=\"495\" data-mime=\"image/png\" data-ratio=\"1.3656565656565656\" data-src-m=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6583662/m/189ae4d1df4763a53338b57d7c993916.jpg\" data-width=\"676\" src=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6583662/l/189ae4d1df4763a53338b57d7c993916.jpg\"></figure>\n\n在这个财报季，NVIDIA与其投资的关联公司，包含SpaceX(xAI)、NEBIUS、CoreWeave无不在法说会中或多或少赞扬NVIDIA，并强化AI残值，提到2020年的AI伺服器，仍可全额租用算力得类似说法，无非就是为了强化NVIDIA与小伙伴们，能撑在AI投资支出的浪潮上，不当第一个钱不够的买家。\n\n（撰文者：永诚资产管理处分析师范振峰）\n\n点击下图【60 秒测试你的理财天赋有几分？】\n\n<figure><a href=\"https://quiz.big-econ.com/index.php?&QID=6\"><img data-height=\"190\" data-mime=\"image/png\" data-ratio=\"4\" data-src-m=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6583662/m/55785af9b8eb90feeeec8d6492967fd1.jpg\" data-width=\"760\" src=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6583662/l/55785af9b8eb90feeeec8d6492967fd1.jpg\" srcset=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6583662/l/55785af9b8eb90feeeec8d6492967fd1.jpg 1x,https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6583662/xl/55785af9b8eb90feeeec8d6492967fd1.jpg 2x,https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6583662/xxl/55785af9b8eb90feeeec8d6492967fd1.jpg 3x\"></a></figure>\n\n \n\n「永诚资产管理处」是全台合法拥有金管字号的证券投资顾问公司中「唯一首创资产管理的部门」，20 年深耕专营台湾各大科技园区，以认真、诚信思维提供客户服务，让努力累积财富的你，也可贴身感受理财管家的 VIP 价值。\n\n没有代理金融商品，不以商品销售出发，减少你的财务漏洞！从资产配置出发，透过「专案客制化」、「服务精致化」、「获利系统化」，你不需牺牲时间体力，就能感受到资产提升！\n\n「卓越投资研究团队」加「顶尖财务顾问团队」共同与客户缔造里程碑\n\n立即加入 <a href=\"https://line.me/R/ti/p/%40asset88598\">https://line.me/R/ti/p/%40asset88598</a>\n\n进一步了解资产管理处 <a href=\"https://www.ycam.com.tw/\">https://www.ycam.com.tw/</a>\n\n收听「资产汇谈」Podcast <a href=\"https://reurl.cc/nYeRQ8\">https://reurl.cc/nYeRQ8</a>\n\n本公司所推荐分析之个别有价证券 \n无不当之财务利益关系以往之绩效不保证未来获利 \n投资人应独立判断审慎评估并自负投资风险<div class=\"related-articles seo-links\">\n <h4>相关阅读</h4>\n <ul>\n <li><a href=\"/new/tw/article-5900.html\" title=\"营收速报 - 大毅(2478)6月营收6.24亿元年增率高达35.76％\">营收速报 - 大毅(2478)6月营收6.24亿元年增率高达35.76％</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/new/tw/article-265.html\" title=\"爱地雅首季每股净值跌破5元 OTC：5/20起改列全额交割\">爱地雅首季每股净值跌破5元 OTC：5/20起改列全额交割</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/new/tw/article-7553.html\" title=\"盘中速报 - 柜买市场加权指数上涨7.38点至375.91点，涨幅2%\">盘中速报 - 柜买市场加权指数上涨7.38点至375.91点，涨幅2%</a></li>\n <li><a 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