台股量缩外资防御、本土调节？下周进入关键期，台积电撑盘后资金轮动看「三大族群」！

尾盘权值股买盘回流带动台股指数走高，但量能未能同步放大，盘面仍以大型权值撑盘、中小型股轮动为主，下周辉达即将公布最新季度财报，维持维持适当持股水位、保有资金弹性，仍是现阶段操作关键。

〈权值股撑盘但外资资金风险偏好仍保守〉
今日台股加权指数终场上涨290点，收45224.29点，涨幅主要由权值龙头台积电(2330-TW)贡献，智霖老师先前节目提醒过关键支撑 44600 点附近有防守力道，不过成交值只有7,192.8亿元，量能依旧没有明显放大，附近有防守力道，新台币汇率维持强势格局，外资买盘持续回流，但本土资金则呈现逢高调节；且外资加码标的目前主要集中于大型金控股与台积电(2330-TW)等权值标的，整体风险偏好仍偏向防御保守，与国际资金结构相似，筹码面选择权比率昨日回落至 1 之下，期货大户多空态度亦出现分歧，显示市场短线氛围偏向观望。

〈光通族群率先表态 散热电源长线趋势未变〉
目前盘面尚未形成全面性的大主流，但光通族群为相对清晰的板块轮动雏形，联亚(3081-TW)、华星光(4979-TW)、波若威(3163-TW)今日都有所表态，光圣(6442-TW)也持续维持强势整理。此外，前一波很强的电源、散热族群虽然近期进入回档，但从基本面长线趋势检视。台达电(2308-TW)、奇𬭎(3017-TW)持续朝更高规格产品线发展，营运结构相当健全，7月外销订单也反映AI伺服器与散热需求依然强劲，液冷散热渗透率持续提升的方向并没有改变。

〈免费下载【陈智霖分析师APP】，掌握第一手盘势资讯与信用筹码名单〉
APP选股会员每月限额招收，名额有限，每周都会提供最新「信用筹码疑虑名单」，邀请您点选连结下载【陈智霖分析师APP】：https://lihi.cc/zwrii

〈月均线扣抵转低 辉达财报成下周盘势关键〉
未来一周将是盘势表态的关键，随着月均线扣抵值走低，加上下周辉达财报公布，大盘方向有望逐步明朗；在量能放大前，操作上仍以适当持股、保留资金弹性为主。依照过往经验，台积电动能转强后，资金往往会扩散至设备、耗材与封测供应链，像京元电子(2449-TW)随高阶ASIC与GPU放量，后续测试需求值得留意。整体而言，量缩整理阶段应持续锁定具备规格升级与业绩支撑的优质供应链，掌握下一波轮动机会，邀请投资人下载【陈智霖分析师APP】，即时资讯都会在APP内第一时间分享，带你用数据掌握节奏，每周也会更新信用筹码疑虑名单，帮你避开风险、锁定机会。

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〈立即填表体验咨询陈智霖分析师会员服务
忠实粉丝请先完成填表申请，每周限时开放体验精选操作名单、盘中到价盘中通知与即时策略更新，面对震荡行情，理性分析与数据判断是关键，立即填表跟上专业：https://lihi.cc/RFzlE

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文章来源：陈智霖分析师 / 凯旭投顾

本公司所推荐分析之个别有价证券
无不当之财务利益关系以往之绩效不保证未来获利
投资人应独立判断审慎评估并自负投资风险

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src=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6583644/s/e924cea823c335b9b5e14b357c67ba50.jpg\" alt=\"台股量缩外资防御、本土调节？下周进入关键期，台积电撑盘后资金轮动看「三大族群」！\" style=\"width:50%;height:auto;border-radius:6px;margin:15px auto;display:block;\">\n\n\n〈权值股撑盘但外资资金风险偏好仍保守〉 \n今日台股加权指数终场上涨290点，收45224.29点，涨幅主要由权值龙头台积电(2330-TW)贡献，<a href=\"https://news.cnyes.com/tag/%E9%99%B3%E6%99%BA%E9%9C%96\">智霖老师</a>先前节目提醒过关键支撑 44600 点附近有防守力道，不过成交值只有7,192.8亿元，量能依旧没有明显放大，附近有防守力道，新台币汇率维持强势格局，外资买盘持续回流，但本土资金则呈现逢高调节；且外资加码标的目前主要集中于大型金控股与台积电(2330-TW)等权值标的，整体风险偏好仍偏向防御保守，与国际资金结构相似，筹码面选择权比率昨日回落至 1 之下，期货大户多空态度亦出现分歧，显示市场短线氛围偏向观望。\n\n〈光通族群率先表态 散热电源长线趋势未变〉 \n目前盘面尚未形成全面性的大主流，但光通族群为相对清晰的板块轮动雏形，联亚(3081-TW)、华星光(4979-TW)、波若威(3163-TW)今日都有所表态，光圣(6442-TW)也持续维持强势整理。此外，前一波很强的电源、散热族群虽然近期进入回档，但从基本面长线趋势检视。台达电(2308-TW)、奇𬭎(3017-TW)持续朝更高规格产品线发展，营运结构相当健全，7月外销订单也反映AI伺服器与散热需求依然强劲，液冷散热渗透率持续提升的方向并没有改变。\n\n〈免费下载【陈智霖分析师APP】，掌握第一手盘势资讯与信用筹码名单〉 \nAPP选股会员每月限额招收，名额有限，每周都会提供最新「信用筹码疑虑名单」，邀请您点选连结下载【陈智霖分析师APP】：<a href=\"https://lihi.cc/zwrii\">https://lihi.cc/zwrii</a>\n\n<figure><img data-height=\"189\" data-mime=\"image/jpeg\" data-ratio=\"4.021164021164021\" data-src-m=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6583644/m/6f983d0a992725f2fb6aee8a5baa8f0e.jpg\" data-width=\"760\" src=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6583644/l/6f983d0a992725f2fb6aee8a5baa8f0e.jpg\" srcset=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6583644/l/6f983d0a992725f2fb6aee8a5baa8f0e.jpg 1x,https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6583644/xl/6f983d0a992725f2fb6aee8a5baa8f0e.jpg 2x,https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6583644/xxl/6f983d0a992725f2fb6aee8a5baa8f0e.jpg 3x\"></figure>\n\n〈月均线扣抵转低 辉达财报成下周盘势关键〉 \n未来一周将是盘势表态的关键，随着月均线扣抵值走低，加上下周辉达财报公布，大盘方向有望逐步明朗；在量能放大前，操作上仍以适当持股、保留资金弹性为主。依照过往经验，台积电动能转强后，资金往往会扩散至设备、耗材与封测供应链，像京元电子(2449-TW)随高阶ASIC与GPU放量，后续测试需求值得留意。整体而言，量缩整理阶段应持续锁定具备规格升级与业绩支撑的优质供应链，掌握下一波轮动机会，邀请投资人下载【陈智霖分析师APP】，即时资讯都会在APP内第一时间分享，带你用数据掌握节奏，每周也会更新信用筹码疑虑名单，帮你避开风险、锁定机会。\n\n最新影音(请点影音上方标题至Youtube收视品质会更佳)\n\n<div class=\"youtube-embed-wrapper\" style=\"position:relative;padding-bottom:56.25%;padding-top:30px;height:0;overflow:hidden;\"><iframe allowfullscreen=\"\" frameborder=\"0\" height=\"360\" src=\"//www.youtube.com/embed/DsABC-c0bTU\" style=\"position: absolute;top: 0;left: 0;width: 100%;height: 100%;\" width=\"640\"></iframe></div>\n\n〈立即填表体验咨询陈智霖分析师会员服务 \n忠实粉丝请先完成填表申请，每周限时开放体验精选操作名单、盘中到价盘中通知与即时策略更新，面对震荡行情，理性分析与数据判断是关键，立即填表跟上专业：<a href=\"https://lihi.cc/RFzlE\">https://lihi.cc/RFzlE</a>\n\n钱进热线 02-2653-8299，立即迈向系统依据的股票操作。\n\n文章来源：陈智霖分析师 / 凯旭投顾\n\n本公司所推荐分析之个别有价证券 \n无不当之财务利益关系以往之绩效不保证未来获利 \n投资人应独立判断审慎评估并自负投资风险<div class=\"related-articles seo-links\">\n <h4>相关阅读</h4>\n <ul>\n <li><a href=\"/new/tw/article-14382.html\" title=\"营收速报 - 爱普(6531)8月营收10.31亿元年增率高达150.82％\">营收速报 - 爱普(6531)8月营收10.31亿元年增率高达150.82％</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/new/tw/article-15091.html\" title=\"【股市焦点】FED升息机率近6成！新光证券：不只看CPI PPI恐先掀起波动行情\">【股市焦点】FED升息机率近6成！新光证券：不只看CPI PPI恐先掀起波动行情</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/new/tw/article-519.html\" 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