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"content": "<p>7 月份开局费半指数出现连续两个交易日大跌，市场怎么了？要出现反转了吗？</p>\n<p style=\"text-align:center;\"><img src=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6521608/l/288b5ee1f21cc2681ff680f9b4d61076.jpg\" alt=\"费半两日大跌11%，市场反转？！Q3投资攻略大公开\" style=\"width:50%;height:auto;border-radius:6px;margin:15px auto;display:block;\"></p>\n\n\n<p>即使出现连续两日大跌，但今年至今费半指数依然大涨逾 70%，上周四 (7/2) 创新高的道琼指数则仅涨 9%(略胜标普 500 指数)，小幅落后那斯达克指数的 11%，显然美股资金从高位阶流入低位阶，而非全面性地转弱，并且可视为美国第二季财报季来临之前的谨慎，市场需要最新的财报与财测去观察 AI 产业前景，而财报季前的提前修正或整理，相对有利于财报公布后的表现，投资朋友无需过度担心。</p>\n\n<p>虽然美国第二季财报前市场转向谨慎，但投资机构与分析师如何看待或预测第二季的企业财报呢？</p>\n\n<p>标普 500 指数成分股第二季财报预测如下：</p>\n\n<table>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>\n<p>指标</p>\n</td>\n<td>\n<p>当前预测</p>\n</td>\n<td>\n<p>季初 (3 月) 预测</p>\n</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n<td>\n<p>获利年增</p>\n</td>\n<td>\n<p>23.3%</p>\n</td>\n<td>\n<p>18.8%</p>\n</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n<td>\n<p>营收年增</p>\n</td>\n<td>\n<p>12.2%</p>\n</td>\n<td>\n<p>9.5%</p>\n</td>\n</tr>\n</tbody>\n</table>\n\n<p>第二季的获利状况预测较季初上调 3.4%，远优于过去五年平均下降 2.0% 与十年平均下降 2.7% 的表现。</p>\n\n<p>更多的投资策略与选股资讯都在－</p>\n\n<p>LINE@ <a href=\"https://user225916.pse.is/money668\">https://user225916.pse.is/money668</a></p>\n\n<p>频道连结 <a href=\"https://www.youtube.com/@money66868\">https://www.youtube.com/@money66868</a></p>\n\n<p>标普 500 成分股中，111 家发布 EPS 指引，其中正面的 63 家，比例达 57%，显著高于五年及十年平均水平的 41%。且 63 家正面指引的企业有 44 家属于资讯业。</p>\n\n<p>2026 年下半年目前预测第三季与第四季的获利成长率将分别 26.8%、24.4%，预计 2026 年全年获利成长 24.1%。</p>\n\n<p>美国企业维持高获利成长，投资朋友不用担心美股转空，近期美股的整理也影响台股的表现，但这反而是拉回买进的机会，可留意 7 月中台积电法说会概念股、6 月营收大成长股。</p>\n\n<p>台积电法说会概念股、6 月营收大成长股如下：</p>\n\n<p>台积电供应链：翔名 (8091-TW)、帆宣 (6196-TW)、汉唐 (2404-TW)、光洋科 (1785-TW)、志圣 (2467-TW)、均华 (6640-TW)、辛耘 (3583-TW)、中砂 (1560-TW)、钛升 (8027-TW)</p>\n\n<p>AI ASIC：创意 (3443-TW)、日月光 (3711-TW)、京元电 (2449-TW)、颖崴 (6515-TW)、旺矽 (6223-TW)</p>\n\n<p>AI 绩优股：台达电 (2308-TW)、奇𬭎 (3017-TW)、台光电 (2383-TW)、联茂 (6213-TW)、欣兴 (3037-TW)、南电 (8046-TW)、健鼎 (3044-TW)</p>\n\n<p>个股详细解析：</p>\n\n<p>均华 (6640-TW)：晶粒挑拣机在台湾市占率极高，精密黏晶机打入主要晶圆代工及封测大厂。</p>\n\n<p>翔名 (8091-TW)：热喷涂与精密洗净等关键表面处理技术，成为应材、ASML 等国际设备大厂与晶圆代工龙头的关键耗材供应。</p>\n\n<p>亚翔 (6139-TW)：在手订单水位超越 2,000 亿元。台积电、美光、世界先进厂务工程。</p>\n\n<p>中砂 (1560-TW)：钻石碟大厂，在先进制程晶圆研磨耗材市占率高，为薄化制程核心供应商。</p>\n\n<p>钛升 (8027-TW)：具备 TGV（玻璃穿孔）及 FOPLP（面板级扇出型封装）技术，打入台积电供应链体系。</p>\n\n<p>旺矽 (6223-TW)：台积电 2 奈米（GAA 架构）晶圆测试最核心的耗材供应角色。</p>\n\n<p>联茂 (6213-TW)：专注于高频高速、超低损耗铜箔基板（CCL），是 AI 伺服器与网通设备的关键材料。</p>\n\n<p>欣兴 (3037-TW)：ABF 载板龙头，持续优化 AI 伺服器与高效能运算晶片所需的载板及高阶 HDI 板，积极布局海外产能。</p>\n\n<p>健鼎 (3044-TW)：专注于伺服器、记忆体模组与车用 PCB，产品组合向更高阶层数、高附加价值应用推升。</p>\n\n<p>AI 基础建设的高额资本支出并未转向，相关供应链将维持高成长的趋势，台积电为最大受惠股，台积电供应链必然是重点之一，另外，AI 伺服器的 PCB 上下游或散热、电源与组装厂等，在大盘整理期间，都可留意出现转强讯号股。还有哪些出现转强讯号的产业与个股？欢迎加入 Line @</p>\n\n<p>更多产业趋势预告 + 盘中讯息→</p>\n\n<p>都在叶老师的 Line @：<br>\nLINE@ID：@money668 (@要记得加)</p>\n\n<p><a href=\"https://user225916.pse.is/money668\">https://user225916.pse.is/money668</a></p>\n\n<p>叶老师 每日分析解盘节目 及 每周一晚上 58 台非凡新闻台「前线百分百」→ 最权威、最专业的节目内容，实在太重要 + 太精彩 + 太专业了！</p>\n\n<p>频道连结 ：<a href=\"https://www.youtube.com/@money66868\">https://www.youtube.com/@money66868</a></p>\n\n<p>务必锁定 专业制作的优质节目，一定要看到最后！</p>\n\n<p>并且【订阅 + 按赞 + 分享帮助好友】</p>\n\n<p>文章来源：摩尔投顾－叶俊敏分析师</p>\n\n<p class=\"warning\">本公司所推荐分析之个别有价证券<br>\n无不当之财务利益关系 以往之绩效不保证未来获利<br>\n投资人应独立判断 审慎评估并自负投资风险</p>\n<div class=\"related-articles seo-links\">\n <h4>相关阅读</h4>\n <ul>\n <li><a href=\"/new/tw/article-7449.html\" title=\"大讯扩建桃园四期、五期新厂 次世代伺服器机架产能月增逾千台\">大讯扩建桃园四期、五期新厂 次世代伺服器机架产能月增逾千台</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/new/tw/article-17125.html\" title=\"vivo V80 Lite 10/1 在台开卖 搭载联发科技天玑 7300e处理器主打超大电池容量\">vivo V80 Lite 10/1 在台开卖 搭载联发科技天玑 7300e处理器主打超大电池容量</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/new/tw/article-20489.html\" title=\"美光新厂启用典礼 赖清德：期盼与台厂合力打造下一世代AI产品\">美光新厂启用典礼 赖清德：期盼与台厂合力打造下一世代AI产品</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/new/tw/article-10969.html\" title=\"〈SEMICON〉颖崴今年产能被订光 AI需求一路旺到2027年后\">〈SEMICON〉颖崴今年产能被订光 AI需求一路旺到2027年后</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/new/tw/article-582.html\" title=\"〈房产〉同样千万元预算买房 房仲：北市仅够买套房、中南部可买两房起跳\">〈房产〉同样千万元预算买房 房仲：北市仅够买套房、中南部可买两房起跳</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/new/tw/article-12010.html\" title=\"ABF厂都在扩产，设备厂的营收却没动？法人为何敢估2027年成长147%\">ABF厂都在扩产，设备厂的营收却没动？法人为何敢估2027年成长147%</a></li>\n </ul>\n</div>",
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