费半两日大跌11%，市场反转？！Q3投资攻略大公开

7 月份开局费半指数出现连续两个交易日大跌，市场怎么了？要出现反转了吗？

即使出现连续两日大跌，但今年至今费半指数依然大涨逾 70%，上周四 (7/2) 创新高的道琼指数则仅涨 9%(略胜标普 500 指数)，小幅落后那斯达克指数的 11%，显然美股资金从高位阶流入低位阶，而非全面性地转弱，并且可视为美国第二季财报季来临之前的谨慎，市场需要最新的财报与财测去观察 AI 产业前景，而财报季前的提前修正或整理，相对有利于财报公布后的表现，投资朋友无需过度担心。

虽然美国第二季财报前市场转向谨慎，但投资机构与分析师如何看待或预测第二季的企业财报呢？

标普 500 指数成分股第二季财报预测如下：

指标	当前预测	季初 (3 月) 预测
获利年增	23.3%	18.8%
营收年增	12.2%	9.5%

第二季的获利状况预测较季初上调 3.4%，远优于过去五年平均下降 2.0% 与十年平均下降 2.7% 的表现。

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标普 500 成分股中，111 家发布 EPS 指引，其中正面的 63 家，比例达 57%，显著高于五年及十年平均水平的 41%。且 63 家正面指引的企业有 44 家属于资讯业。

2026 年下半年目前预测第三季与第四季的获利成长率将分别 26.8%、24.4%，预计 2026 年全年获利成长 24.1%。

美国企业维持高获利成长，投资朋友不用担心美股转空，近期美股的整理也影响台股的表现，但这反而是拉回买进的机会，可留意 7 月中台积电法说会概念股、6 月营收大成长股。

台积电法说会概念股、6 月营收大成长股如下：

台积电供应链：翔名 (8091-TW)、帆宣 (6196-TW)、汉唐 (2404-TW)、光洋科 (1785-TW)、志圣 (2467-TW)、均华 (6640-TW)、辛耘 (3583-TW)、中砂 (1560-TW)、钛升 (8027-TW)

AI ASIC：创意 (3443-TW)、日月光 (3711-TW)、京元电 (2449-TW)、颖崴 (6515-TW)、旺矽 (6223-TW)

AI 绩优股：台达电 (2308-TW)、奇𬭎 (3017-TW)、台光电 (2383-TW)、联茂 (6213-TW)、欣兴 (3037-TW)、南电 (8046-TW)、健鼎 (3044-TW)

个股详细解析：

均华 (6640-TW)：晶粒挑拣机在台湾市占率极高，精密黏晶机打入主要晶圆代工及封测大厂。

翔名 (8091-TW)：热喷涂与精密洗净等关键表面处理技术，成为应材、ASML 等国际设备大厂与晶圆代工龙头的关键耗材供应。

亚翔 (6139-TW)：在手订单水位超越 2,000 亿元。台积电、美光、世界先进厂务工程。

中砂 (1560-TW)：钻石碟大厂，在先进制程晶圆研磨耗材市占率高，为薄化制程核心供应商。

钛升 (8027-TW)：具备 TGV（玻璃穿孔）及 FOPLP（面板级扇出型封装）技术，打入台积电供应链体系。

旺矽 (6223-TW)：台积电 2 奈米（GAA 架构）晶圆测试最核心的耗材供应角色。

联茂 (6213-TW)：专注于高频高速、超低损耗铜箔基板（CCL），是 AI 伺服器与网通设备的关键材料。

欣兴 (3037-TW)：ABF 载板龙头，持续优化 AI 伺服器与高效能运算晶片所需的载板及高阶 HDI 板，积极布局海外产能。

健鼎 (3044-TW)：专注于伺服器、记忆体模组与车用 PCB，产品组合向更高阶层数、高附加价值应用推升。

AI 基础建设的高额资本支出并未转向，相关供应链将维持高成长的趋势，台积电为最大受惠股，台积电供应链必然是重点之一，另外，AI 伺服器的 PCB 上下游或散热、电源与组装厂等，在大盘整理期间，都可留意出现转强讯号股。还有哪些出现转强讯号的产业与个股？欢迎加入 Line @

更多产业趋势预告 + 盘中讯息→

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文章来源：摩尔投顾－叶俊敏分析师

本公司所推荐分析之个别有价证券
无不当之财务利益关系以往之绩效不保证未来获利
投资人应独立判断审慎评估并自负投资风险

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"name": "台股", "pinyin": "tw", "path": "/new/tw", "orderBy": 0, "target": "0", "status": "0", "listView": "list.html", "articleView": "article.html", "seoTitle": "", "seoKeywords": "", "seoDescription": "", "type": "0", "dataConfig": null, "level": 1 }, "article": { "id": 5097, "cid": 27, "subCid": null, "title": "费半两日大跌11%，市场反转？！Q3投资攻略大公开", "shortTitle": "费半两日大跌11%，市场反转？！Q3投资攻略大公开", "tagId": "", "attr": "", "articleView": null, "source": null, "author": "网络", "description": "7 月份开局费半指数出现连续两个交易日大跌，市场怎么了？要出现反转了吗？即使出现连续两日大跌，但今年至今费半指数依然大涨逾 70%，上周四 (7/2) 创新高的道琼指数则仅涨 9%(略胜标普 500 指数)，小幅落后那斯达克指数的 11%，显然美股资金从高位阶流入低位阶，而非全面性地转弱，并且可视为美国第二季财报季来临之前的谨慎，市场需要最新的财报与财测去观察 AI 产业前景，而财报季前的提前修正或整理，相对有利于财报公布后的表现，投资朋友无需过度担心。虽然美国第二季财报前市场转向谨慎，但投", "img": "https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6521608/l/288b5ee1f21cc2681ff680f9b4d61076.jpg", "content": "7 月份开局费半指数出现连续两个交易日大跌，市场怎么了？要出现反转了吗？\n<img src=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6521608/l/288b5ee1f21cc2681ff680f9b4d61076.jpg\" alt=\"费半两日大跌11%，市场反转？！Q3投资攻略大公开\" style=\"width:50%;height:auto;border-radius:6px;margin:15px auto;display:block;\">\n\n\n即使出现连续两日大跌，但今年至今费半指数依然大涨逾 70%，上周四 (7/2) 创新高的道琼指数则仅涨 9%(略胜标普 500 指数)，小幅落后那斯达克指数的 11%，显然美股资金从高位阶流入低位阶，而非全面性地转弱，并且可视为美国第二季财报季来临之前的谨慎，市场需要最新的财报与财测去观察 AI 产业前景，而财报季前的提前修正或整理，相对有利于财报公布后的表现，投资朋友无需过度担心。\n\n虽然美国第二季财报前市场转向谨慎，但投资机构与分析师如何看待或预测第二季的企业财报呢？\n\n标普 500 指数成分股第二季财报预测如下：\n\n<table>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>\n指标\n</td>\n<td>\n当前预测\n</td>\n<td>\n季初 (3 月) 预测\n</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n<td>\n获利年增\n</td>\n<td>\n23.3%\n</td>\n<td>\n18.8%\n</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n<td>\n营收年增\n</td>\n<td>\n12.2%\n</td>\n<td>\n9.5%\n</td>\n</tr>\n</tbody>\n</table>\n\n第二季的获利状况预测较季初上调 3.4%，远优于过去五年平均下降 2.0% 与十年平均下降 2.7% 的表现。\n\n更多的投资策略与选股资讯都在－\n\nLINE@ <a href=\"https://user225916.pse.is/money668\">https://user225916.pse.is/money668</a>\n\n频道连结 <a href=\"https://www.youtube.com/@money66868\">https://www.youtube.com/@money66868</a>\n\n标普 500 成分股中，111 家发布 EPS 指引，其中正面的 63 家，比例达 57%，显著高于五年及十年平均水平的 41%。且 63 家正面指引的企业有 44 家属于资讯业。\n\n2026 年下半年目前预测第三季与第四季的获利成长率将分别 26.8%、24.4%，预计 2026 年全年获利成长 24.1%。\n\n美国企业维持高获利成长，投资朋友不用担心美股转空，近期美股的整理也影响台股的表现，但这反而是拉回买进的机会，可留意 7 月中台积电法说会概念股、6 月营收大成长股。\n\n台积电法说会概念股、6 月营收大成长股如下：\n\n台积电供应链：翔名 (8091-TW)、帆宣 (6196-TW)、汉唐 (2404-TW)、光洋科 (1785-TW)、志圣 (2467-TW)、均华 (6640-TW)、辛耘 (3583-TW)、中砂 (1560-TW)、钛升 (8027-TW)\n\nAI ASIC：创意 (3443-TW)、日月光 (3711-TW)、京元电 (2449-TW)、颖崴 (6515-TW)、旺矽 (6223-TW)\n\nAI 绩优股：台达电 (2308-TW)、奇𬭎 (3017-TW)、台光电 (2383-TW)、联茂 (6213-TW)、欣兴 (3037-TW)、南电 (8046-TW)、健鼎 (3044-TW)\n\n个股详细解析：\n\n均华 (6640-TW)：晶粒挑拣机在台湾市占率极高，精密黏晶机打入主要晶圆代工及封测大厂。\n\n翔名 (8091-TW)：热喷涂与精密洗净等关键表面处理技术，成为应材、ASML 等国际设备大厂与晶圆代工龙头的关键耗材供应。\n\n亚翔 (6139-TW)：在手订单水位超越 2,000 亿元。台积电、美光、世界先进厂务工程。\n\n中砂 (1560-TW)：钻石碟大厂，在先进制程晶圆研磨耗材市占率高，为薄化制程核心供应商。\n\n钛升 (8027-TW)：具备 TGV（玻璃穿孔）及 FOPLP（面板级扇出型封装）技术，打入台积电供应链体系。\n\n旺矽 (6223-TW)：台积电 2 奈米（GAA 架构）晶圆测试最核心的耗材供应角色。\n\n联茂 (6213-TW)：专注于高频高速、超低损耗铜箔基板（CCL），是 AI 伺服器与网通设备的关键材料。\n\n欣兴 (3037-TW)：ABF 载板龙头，持续优化 AI 伺服器与高效能运算晶片所需的载板及高阶 HDI 板，积极布局海外产能。\n\n健鼎 (3044-TW)：专注于伺服器、记忆体模组与车用 PCB，产品组合向更高阶层数、高附加价值应用推升。\n\nAI 基础建设的高额资本支出并未转向，相关供应链将维持高成长的趋势，台积电为最大受惠股，台积电供应链必然是重点之一，另外，AI 伺服器的 PCB 上下游或散热、电源与组装厂等，在大盘整理期间，都可留意出现转强讯号股。还有哪些出现转强讯号的产业与个股？欢迎加入 Line @\n\n更多产业趋势预告 + 盘中讯息→\n\n都在叶老师的 Line @： \nLINE@ID：@money668 (@要记得加)\n\n<a href=\"https://user225916.pse.is/money668\">https://user225916.pse.is/money668</a>\n\n叶老师每日分析解盘节目及每周一晚上 58 台非凡新闻台「前线百分百」→ 最权威、最专业的节目内容，实在太重要 + 太精彩 + 太专业了！\n\n频道连结：<a href=\"https://www.youtube.com/@money66868\">https://www.youtube.com/@money66868</a>\n\n务必锁定专业制作的优质节目，一定要看到最后！\n\n并且【订阅 + 按赞 + 分享帮助好友】\n\n文章来源：摩尔投顾－叶俊敏分析师\n\n本公司所推荐分析之个别有价证券 \n无不当之财务利益关系以往之绩效不保证未来获利 \n投资人应独立判断审慎评估并自负投资风险\n<div class=\"related-articles seo-links\">\n <h4>相关阅读</h4>\n <ul>\n <li><a href=\"/new/tw/article-9635.html\" title=\"0805 台股盘前｜营收创高策略锁定【南亚科、晶豪科、仓和、南电】记忆体与 ABF 载板强攻喷发！加权震荡守 43,300 点、柜买劲扬 3.35%\">0805 台股盘前｜营收创高策略锁定【南亚科、晶豪科、仓和、南电】记忆体与 ABF 载板强攻喷发！加权震荡守 43,300 点、柜买劲扬 3.35%</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/new/tw/article-9271.html\" 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