基本面会是泡面？上诠、国巨、智原

一、今日盘势重点

基本面会是泡面？上诠、国巨、智原

台股呈现「开低震荡走低」，终场下跌 1195 点，收 43654 点，跌破 10 日线。
成交量缩至 7948 亿元，显示市场追价意愿不足、观望气氛浓厚。
技术面转弱，短线进入整理格局。

二、下跌主因解析

地缘政治风险升温
- 中东战火扩大、红海油轮遇袭，能源运输受阻。
- 布兰特原油突破 100 美元 → 通膨预期升温 → 压抑股市评价。
利率与资金面压力
- 油价推升通膨 → 美债殖利率上扬 → 成长股估值修正。
AI 投资疑虑扩散
- Alphabet 资本支出突破 2000 亿美元，自由现金流转负。
- 市场质疑「AI 烧钱 vs 回报不确定性」。
- 拖累科技股（Alphabet、Tesla）重挫 → 影响台股。

三、技术面与区间预估

短线仍受利空干扰，震荡难免。
下档支撑：40K～42K（强支撑区）
上档压力：46K 附近
预期短期走势：
→「区间震荡 + 类股轮动」为主

四、总体经济与基本面（长多核心）

GDP 大幅上修（史上罕见）
- 中经院：2026 年 GDP 10.35%
- 中研院：10.16%
- 台经院：10.38%（最高）
AI 驱动三大成长引擎
- 出口强劲（AI 晶片、伺服器）
- 企业投资扩张
- 内需同步升温
企业获利全面上修
- 法人预估 2026 年获利成长 >50%
- 统一投顾甚至上看 57%
产业趋势明确
- AI 需求年增约 25%
- 资料中心算力需求 = 过去 10 倍

五、资金面支撑

M1B 年增率 > M2 → 资金行情启动
台湾超额储蓄上看 9 兆元
ETF 规模持续扩张
政策 / 国家队资金支撑
结论：内资动能强劲，成为下档防护垫

六、AI 产业关键受惠族群

电源与散热
- 液冷 / 浸没式散热
- 高瓦数电源供应器
高速传输 / CPO 矽光子
- 低延迟高速连接需求爆发
- 2027～2028 成主流
ASIC 客制化晶片
- CSP（AWS / Google）自研晶片
- 带动 NRE 与量产订单
关键材料
- ABF 载板、CCL、记忆体升级
先进封装
- CoWoS / FOPLP 需求爆发

七、操作策略重点

核心原则：选股重于选市
两大操作逻辑
- ✔ 有基本面（AI 受惠）→ 拉回找买点
- ✘ 无实质成长 → 反弹找卖点
强势族群观察（光通讯 /CPO）
- 联亚 (3081-TW)、上诠 (3363-TW)、波若威 (3163-TW)、华星光 (4979-TW)
  受惠「光进铜退」长线趋势
操作节奏
- 短线：保守控管、分批布局
- 中线：逢回加码 AI 主流股

八、结论

短线利空（战争＋利率＋AI 疑虑）造成修正。
中长线三大支柱未变：
- AI 需求爆发
- 台湾供应链优势
- 资金动能充沛
指数上看 5 万～5.5 万点为时间问题。

当前回档 = 长线多头中的健康修正，也是下一波行情的起点。

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文章来源：伦元投顾陈学进分析师

本公司所推荐分析之个别有价证券
无不当之财务利益关系以往之绩效不保证未来获利
投资人应独立判断审慎评估并自负投资风险

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27, "pid": 15, "name": "台股", "pinyin": "tw", "path": "/new/tw", "orderBy": 0, "target": "0", "status": "0", "listView": "list.html", "articleView": "article.html", "seoTitle": "", "seoKeywords": "", "seoDescription": "", "type": "0", "dataConfig": null, "level": 1 }, "article": { "id": 8131, "cid": 27, "subCid": null, "title": "基本面会是泡面？上诠、国巨、智原", "shortTitle": "基本面会是泡面？上诠、国巨、智原", "tagId": "", "attr": "", "articleView": null, "source": null, "author": "网络", "description": "一、今日盘势重点台股呈现「开低震荡走低」，终场下跌 1195 点，收 43654 点，跌破 10 日线。成交量缩至 7948 亿元，显示市场追价意愿不足、观望气氛浓厚。技术面转弱，短线进入整理格局。二、下跌主因解析地缘政治风险升温中东战火扩大、红海油轮遇袭，能源运输受阻。布兰特原油突破 100 美元 → 通膨预期升温 → 压抑股市评价。利率与资金面压力油价推升通膨 → 美债殖利率上扬 → 成长股估值修正。 AI 投资疑虑扩散 Alphab", "img": "https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6545242/l/f8066bcab18ce01a6b6e1374cc6c9683.jpg", "content": "一、今日盘势重点\n<img src=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6545242/l/f8066bcab18ce01a6b6e1374cc6c9683.jpg\" alt=\"基本面会是泡面？上诠、国巨、智原\" style=\"width:50%;height:auto;border-radius:6px;margin:15px auto;display:block;\">\n\n\n<ol>\n<li>台股呈现「开低震荡走低」，终场下跌 1195 点，收 43654 点，跌破 10 日线。</li>\n<li>成交量缩至 7948 亿元，显示市场追价意愿不足、观望气氛浓厚。</li>\n<li>技术面转弱，短线进入整理格局。</li>\n</ol>\n\n<div>\n<hr></div>\n\n二、下跌主因解析\n\n<ol>\n<li>地缘政治风险升温\n\n<ul>\n<li>中东战火扩大、红海油轮遇袭，能源运输受阻。</li>\n<li>布兰特原油突破 100 美元 → 通膨预期升温 → 压抑股市评价。</li>\n</ul>\n</li>\n<li>利率与资金面压力\n<ul>\n<li>油价推升通膨 → 美债殖利率上扬 → 成长股估值修正。</li>\n</ul>\n</li>\n<li>AI 投资疑虑扩散\n<ul>\n<li> Alphabet 资本支出突破 2000 亿美元，自由现金流转负。</li>\n<li>市场质疑「AI 烧钱 vs 回报不确定性」。</li>\n<li>拖累科技股（Alphabet、Tesla）重挫 → 影响台股。</li>\n</ul>\n</li>\n</ol>\n\n<div>\n<hr></div>\n\n三、技术面与区间预估\n\n<ol>\n<li>短线仍受利空干扰，震荡难免。</li>\n<li>下档支撑：40K～42K（强支撑区）</li>\n<li>上档压力：46K 附近</li>\n<li>预期短期走势： \n→「区间震荡 + 类股轮动」为主</li>\n</ol>\n\n<div>\n<hr></div>\n\n四、总体经济与基本面（长多核心）\n\n<ol>\n<li>GDP 大幅上修（史上罕见）\n\n<ul>\n<li>中经院：2026 年 GDP 10.35%</li>\n<li> 中研院：10.16%</li>\n<li> 台经院：10.38%（最高）</li>\n</ul>\n</li>\n<li>AI 驱动三大成长引擎\n<ul>\n<li>出口强劲（AI 晶片、伺服器）</li>\n<li>企业投资扩张</li>\n<li>内需同步升温</li>\n</ul>\n</li>\n<li>企业获利全面上修\n<ul>\n<li>法人预估 2026 年获利成长 >50%</li>\n<li> 统一投顾甚至上看 57%</li>\n</ul>\n</li>\n<li> 产业趋势明确\n<ul>\n<li> AI 需求年增约 25%</li>\n<li> 资料中心算力需求 = 过去 10 倍</li>\n</ul>\n</li>\n</ol>\n\n<div>\n<hr></div>\n\n五、资金面支撑\n\n<ol>\n<li>M1B 年增率 > M2 → 资金行情启动</li>\n<li>台湾超额储蓄上看 9 兆元</li>\n<li> ETF 规模持续扩张</li>\n<li>政策 / 国家队资金支撑 \n 结论：内资动能强劲，成为下档防护垫</li>\n</ol>\n\n<div>\n<hr></div>\n\n六、AI 产业关键受惠族群\n\n<ol>\n<li>电源与散热\n\n<ul>\n<li>液冷 / 浸没式散热</li>\n<li>高瓦数电源供应器</li>\n</ul>\n</li>\n<li>高速传输 / CPO 矽光子\n<ul>\n<li>低延迟高速连接需求爆发</li>\n<li> 2027～2028 成主流</li>\n</ul>\n</li>\n<li> ASIC 客制化晶片\n<ul>\n<li> CSP（AWS / Google）自研晶片</li>\n<li>带动 NRE 与量产订单</li>\n</ul>\n</li>\n<li>关键材料\n<ul>\n<li> ABF 载板、CCL、记忆体升级</li>\n</ul>\n</li>\n<li>先进封装\n<ul>\n<li> CoWoS / FOPLP 需求爆发</li>\n</ul>\n</li>\n</ol>\n\n<div>\n<hr></div>\n\n七、操作策略重点\n\n<ol>\n<li>核心原则：选股重于选市</li>\n<li>两大操作逻辑\n<ul>\n<li>✔ 有基本面（AI 受惠）→ 拉回找买点</li>\n<li>✘ 无实质成长 → 反弹找卖点</li>\n</ul>\n</li>\n<li>强势族群观察（光通讯 /CPO）\n<ul>\n<li>联亚 (3081-TW)、上诠 (3363-TW)、波若威 (3163-TW)、华星光 (4979-TW) \n 受惠「光进铜退」长线趋势</li>\n</ul>\n</li>\n<li>操作节奏\n<ul>\n<li>短线：保守控管、分批布局</li>\n<li>中线：逢回加码 AI 主流股</li>\n</ul>\n</li>\n</ol>\n\n<div>\n<hr></div>\n\n八、结论\n\n<ol>\n<li>短线利空（战争＋利率＋AI 疑虑）造成修正。</li>\n<li>中长线三大支柱未变：\n<ul>\n<li>AI 需求爆发</li>\n<li>台湾供应链优势</li>\n<li>资金动能充沛</li>\n</ul>\n</li>\n<li>指数上看 5 万～5.5 万点为时间问题。</li>\n</ol>\n\n当前回档 = 长线多头中的健康修正，也是下一波行情的起点。\n\n<div>\n<hr></div>\n\n背痛元件\n\n国巨、华新科、禾伸堂\n\n法人自救价 XXX？\n\n如果你有任何持股上的问题\n\n不晓得该如何来处理或调整\n\n欢迎加 LINE 私讯大师兄\n\n留下你的姓名及连络电话\n\n大师兄情义相挺来助你一臂之力\n\n帮你把不对、不会涨的杂货店股\n\n换到对的、未来会大涨的股票上\n\n一个转念就可以改变你的一生\n\nLINE@连结网址：<a href=\"https://line.me/R/ti/p/@gold99\">https://line.me/R/ti/p/%40gold99</a>\n\n疾风知劲草、板荡识忠臣\n\n你看到的是恐慌\n\n我看到的是机会\n\n想把握下一波倍数翻的好友\n\n欢迎加入我们的行列\n\n我们一起拚找回你的信心\n\n<a href=\"https://forms.gle/kadNxYQjsrKH6Njv8\">https://forms.gle/kadNxYQjsrKH6Njv8</a>\n\n<figure> </figure>\n\n \n\n<figure><img data-height=\"291\" data-mime=\"image/png\" data-ratio=\"1.5360824742268042\" data-src-m=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6545242/m/d6b06428a744f69dec99b0d355620442.jpg\" data-width=\"447\" src=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6545242/m/d6b06428a744f69dec99b0d355620442.jpg\"></figure>\n\n \n\n<figure><img data-height=\"256\" data-mime=\"image/png\" data-ratio=\"1.75\" data-src-m=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6545242/m/e708907e7ab91b170959d51281a2f0b7.jpg\" data-width=\"448\" src=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6545242/m/e708907e7ab91b170959d51281a2f0b7.jpg\"></figure>\n\n \n\n<figure><img data-height=\"278\" data-mime=\"image/png\" data-ratio=\"1.6079136690647482\" data-src-m=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6545242/m/b1d657eb9d07af695b1e35bb54702a96.jpg\" data-width=\"447\" src=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6545242/m/b1d657eb9d07af695b1e35bb54702a96.jpg\"></figure>\n\n \n\n<div class=\"youtube-embed-wrapper\" style=\"position:relative;padding-bottom:56.25%;padding-top:30px;height:0;overflow:hidden;\"><iframe allowfullscreen=\"\" frameborder=\"0\" height=\"360\" src=\"//www.youtube.com/embed/dALUzWurIFg\" style=\"position: absolute;top: 0;left: 0;width: 100%;height: 100%;\" width=\"640\"></iframe></div>\n\n工商时报绩效竞赛 13 冠王、卓越绩效傲视同业、专业实力有目共赌！\n\n更多第一手讯息、以及飙股机会→请加入大师兄飙股鑫天地的大家族\n\nLINE@连结网址：<a href=\"https://line.me/R/ti/p/@gold99\">https://line.me/R/ti/p/%40gold99</a>\n\nTelegram 连结网址：<a href=\"https://t.me/gold0999\">https://t.me/gold0999</a>\n\nYT 个人专属频道：<a href=\"mailto:youtube.com/@master55688\">youtube.com/@master55688</a>\n\n举手之劳、记得！按赞、订阅、分享、开启小铃铛\n\n咨询专线 02-2321-9933(24 小时专人服务)\n\n让更多人可以看见我们的影片\n\n咨询专线 02-2321-9933(24 小时专人服务)\n\n<figure><img data-height=\"252\" data-mime=\"image/png\" data-ratio=\"1.4722222222222223\" data-src-m=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6545242/m/74a39f0dcc2aabd80bef0b6b641e044b.jpg\" data-width=\"371\" src=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6545242/m/74a39f0dcc2aabd80bef0b6b641e044b.jpg\"></figure>\n\n文章来源：伦元投顾陈学进分析师\n\n本公司所推荐分析之个别有价证券 \n无不当之财务利益关系以往之绩效不保证未来获利 \n投资人应独立判断审慎评估并自负投资风险\n<div class=\"related-articles seo-links\">\n <h4>相关阅读</h4>\n <ul>\n <li><a href=\"/new/tw/article-2516.html\" title=\"技嘉挟AI伺服器与新品双重红利看旺 AI伺服器全年营收占比可望逼近7成\">技嘉挟AI伺服器与新品双重红利看旺 AI伺服器全年营收占比可望逼近7成</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/new/tw/article-9533.html\" title=\"xfvcfbvxgbvgn\">xfvcfbvxgbvgn</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/new/tw/article-10793.html\" title=\"佳格H1净利年增53%每股赚0.8元下半年聚焦营运及毛利率改善\">佳格H1净利年增53%每股赚0.8元下半年聚焦营运及毛利率改善</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/new/tw/article-9098.html\" title=\"离岸风电面临多重挑战台湾风力发电产业协会理事长许逸德提四大建言\">离岸风电面临多重挑战台湾风力发电产业协会理事长许逸德提四大建言</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/new/tw/article-10986.html\" title=\"〈华硕法说〉Q2大赚2.56个股本年增近1倍创新高伺服器业务成长逾200%\">〈华硕法说〉Q2大赚2.56个股本年增近1倍创新高伺服器业务成长逾200%</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/new/tw/article-7637.html\" title=\"〈台币〉股汇不同调再爆巨量重贬9.7分至32.345元\">〈台币〉股汇不同调再爆巨量重贬9.7分至32.345元</a></li>\n </ul>\n</div>", "status": 0, "pv": 44, "link": "https://news.cnyes.com/news/id/6545242", "createdAt": "2026-07-24T10:13:21.000Z", "updatedAt": "2026-09-11T11:01:00.000Z" }, "position": [ { "id": 15, "pid": 0, "name": "热点新闻", "pinyin": "new", "path": "/new", "orderBy": 0, "target": "0", "status": "0", "listView": "list.html", "articleView": "article.html", "seoTitle": "", "seoKeywords": "", "seoDescription": "", "type": "0", "dataConfig": null, "children": [ { "id": 25, "pid": 15, "name": "美股", "pinyin": "mg", "path": "/new/mg", "orderBy": 0, "target": "0", "status": "0", "listView": "list.html", "articleView": "article.html", "seoTitle": "", "seoKeywords": "", "seoDescription": "", "type": "0", "dataConfig": null, "level": 1 }, { "id": 26, "pid": 15, "name": "港股", "pinyin": "hk", "path": "/new/hk", "orderBy": 0, "target": "0", "status": "0", "listView": "list.html", "articleView": "article.html", "seoTitle": "", "seoKeywords": "", "seoDescription": "", "type": "0", "dataConfig": null, 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