〈纽约汇市〉美元持平市场聚焦联准会政策前景

美元周一 (6 日) 变动不大，此前美元在上一个交易日创下自 4 月底以来最大单日跌幅。货币市场参与者仍将焦点放在美国联准会 (Fed) 的货币政策前景。

纽约尾盘，追踪美元兑六种主要货币的美元指数 (DXY) 近持平，报 100.85。

美元指数上周四下跌 0.5%，因美国 6 月非农就业报告低于市场预期。

市场对这份报告反应正面，认为这代表美国劳动市场仍具韧性，但并未强劲到迫使联准会进一步升息，因此联准会有更多空间维持利率不变，而非进一步收紧货币政策。

联准会新任主席华许 (Kevin Warsh) 上个月表示，联准会将放弃「前瞻指引」，专注于控制通膨，因为目前劳动市场仍相对稳定。

华许上周在葡萄牙再次重申，不会对未来政策路径提供前瞻指引。

市场下一个焦点将是周三公布的联准会 6 月会议纪录，借此进一步了解决策官员的想法。此前有一半的决策官员认为，今年仍可能需要升息。

华许在葡萄牙也谈到，通膨风险已经下降。随着油价回落至美国与以色列于 2 月底联合对伊朗展开行动之前的水准，市场对通膨的担忧已有所缓解。

麦格理外汇与利率策略师 Thierry Wizman 表示，「一般而言，人们可能会认为油价下跌应该对美元不利，这也是我们原本的看法。因较低的油价有利于其他石油进口国改善贸易条件，却可能削弱美国的贸易条件，进而在其他条件不变情况下，使美国的相对实质所得下降。毕竟，过去油价处于高档的那段期间，整体而言一直是支撑美元兑主要货币走强的一项小利多。然而，真正值得重新检视的正是『在其他条件皆相同』这个假设，因为现实情况并非如此。」

「这很可能是因为华许在 6 月 17 日联邦公开市场委员会 (FOMC) 会后记者会上出乎市场预料地展现了偏鹰派的立场。但市场对联准会鹰派立场的重新定价，现在大致已经完成。随着油价大幅回落，华许在即将发表的半年货币政策报告中，应该也没有必要再释出强硬的鹰派讯号。预期美元这波涨势届时很可能会逐渐失去动能，甚至在那之前就可能开始停滞。」

其他主要货币方面，欧元兑美元小幅上涨至 1.1441 美元，此前市场公布了欧元区工业生产者物价指数 (PPI) 与零售销售。

根据 Eurostat 初步估计，欧元区 5 月工业生产者物价指数月增 0.2%，较 4 月的 0.7% 放缓。不过，按年比较，5 月 PPI 年增率由 4 月的 5% 升至 5.9%，主要受到能源价格年增 14% 带动。

另一方面，欧元区 5 月零售销售月增 0.2%，较 4 月下滑 0.3% 明显改善。

日元周一再度走弱。美元兑日元上涨 0.4%，至 162.04。

日元目前仍位于 40 年来最低水准。但上周四在美国就业数据公布后，由于市场降低了对联准会升息的预期，日元曾短暂大幅升值。

自 6 月中旬以来，美元兑日元一直维持在 160 以上。此价位过去曾多次引发日本政府进场干预汇市。

截至台湾时间周二 (7 日) 约 6:00 价格:

美元指数报 100.8549。-0.0171%
欧元兑美元 (EUR/USD) 汇率报 1 欧元兑 1.1443 美元。+0.0175%
英镑兑美元 (GBP/USD) 汇率报 1 英镑兑 1.3386 美元。-0.0224%
澳币兑美元 (AUD/USD) 汇率报 1 澳币兑 0.6955 美元。-0.0144%
美元兑加币 (USD/CAD) 汇率报 1 美元兑 1.4208 加币。+0.0282%
美元兑日元 (USD/JPY) 汇率报 1 美元兑 162.0800 日元。-0.0062%

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"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6524272/l/059fc925be3901e1d8d1acec9b1b3ee8.jpg", "content": "美元周一 (6 日) 变动不大，此前美元在上一个交易日创下自 4 月底以来最大单日跌幅。货币市场参与者仍将焦点放在美国联准会 (Fed) 的货币政策前景。\n<img src=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6524272/l/059fc925be3901e1d8d1acec9b1b3ee8.jpg\" alt=\"〈纽约汇市〉美元持平市场聚焦联准会政策前景\" style=\"width:50%;height:auto;border-radius:6px;margin:15px auto;display:block;\">\n\n\n纽约尾盘，追踪美元兑六种主要货币的美元指数 (DXY) 近持平，报 100.85。\n\n美元指数上周四下跌 0.5%，因美国 6 月非农就业报告低于市场预期。\n\n市场对这份报告反应正面，认为这代表美国劳动市场仍具韧性，但并未强劲到迫使联准会进一步升息，因此联准会有更多空间维持利率不变，而非进一步收紧货币政策。\n\n联准会新任主席华许 (Kevin Warsh) 上个月表示，联准会将放弃「前瞻指引」，专注于控制通膨，因为目前劳动市场仍相对稳定。\n\n华许上周在葡萄牙再次重申，不会对未来政策路径提供前瞻指引。\n\n市场下一个焦点将是周三公布的联准会 6 月会议纪录，借此进一步了解决策官员的想法。此前有一半的决策官员认为，今年仍可能需要升息。 \n\n华许在葡萄牙也谈到，通膨风险已经下降。随着油价回落至美国与以色列于 2 月底联合对伊朗展开行动之前的水准，市场对通膨的担忧已有所缓解。\n\n麦格理外汇与利率策略师 Thierry Wizman 表示，「一般而言，人们可能会认为油价下跌应该对美元不利，这也是我们原本的看法。因较低的油价有利于其他石油进口国改善贸易条件，却可能削弱美国的贸易条件，进而在其他条件不变情况下，使美国的相对实质所得下降。毕竟，过去油价处于高档的那段期间，整体而言一直是支撑美元兑主要货币走强的一项小利多。然而，真正值得重新检视的正是『在其他条件皆相同』这个假设，因为现实情况并非如此。」\n\n「这很可能是因为华许在 6 月 17 日联邦公开市场委员会 (FOMC) 会后记者会上出乎市场预料地展现了偏鹰派的立场。但市场对联准会鹰派立场的重新定价，现在大致已经完成。随着油价大幅回落，华许在即将发表的半年货币政策报告中，应该也没有必要再释出强硬的鹰派讯号。预期美元这波涨势届时很可能会逐渐失去动能，甚至在那之前就可能开始停滞。」\n\n其他主要货币方面，欧元兑美元小幅上涨至 1.1441 美元，此前市场公布了欧元区工业生产者物价指数 (PPI) 与零售销售。\n\n根据 Eurostat 初步估计，欧元区 5 月工业生产者物价指数月增 0.2%，较 4 月的 0.7% 放缓。不过，按年比较，5 月 PPI 年增率由 4 月的 5% 升至 5.9%，主要受到能源价格年增 14% 带动。\n\n另一方面，欧元区 5 月零售销售月增 0.2%，较 4 月下滑 0.3% 明显改善。\n\n日元周一再度走弱。美元兑日元上涨 0.4%，至 162.04。\n\n日元目前仍位于 40 年来最低水准。但上周四在美国就业数据公布后，由于市场降低了对联准会升息的预期，日元曾短暂大幅升值。\n\n自 6 月中旬以来，美元兑日元一直维持在 160 以上。此价位过去曾多次引发日本政府进场干预汇市。\n\n截至台湾时间周二 (7 日) 约 6:00 价格:\n\n<ul>\n<li><a href=\"https://invest.cnyes.com/index/GI/DXY\">美元指数</a>报 100.8549。-0.0171% </li>\n<li><a href=\"https://invest.cnyes.com/forex/detail/eurusd\">欧元</a>兑美元 (EUR/USD) 汇率报 1 <a href=\"https://invest.cnyes.com/forex/detail/eurusd\">欧元</a>兑 1.1443 美元。+0.0175% </li>\n<li><a href=\"https://invest.cnyes.com/forex/detail/gbpusd\">英镑</a>兑美元 (GBP/USD) 汇率报 1 <a href=\"https://invest.cnyes.com/forex/detail/gbpusd\">英镑</a>兑 1.3386 美元。-0.0224% </li>\n<li><a href=\"https://invest.cnyes.com/forex/detail/audusd\">澳币</a>兑美元 (AUD/USD) 汇率报 1 <a href=\"https://invest.cnyes.com/forex/detail/audusd\">澳币</a>兑 0.6955 美元。-0.0144%</li>\n<li> 美元兑<a href=\"https://invest.cnyes.com/forex/detail/cadusd\">加币</a> (USD/CAD) 汇率报 1 美元兑 1.4208 <a href=\"https://invest.cnyes.com/forex/detail/cadusd\">加币</a>。+0.0282%</li>\n<li> 美元兑<a href=\"https://invest.cnyes.com/forex/detail/jpyusd\">日元</a> (USD/JPY) 汇率报 1 美元兑 162.0800 <a href=\"https://invest.cnyes.com/forex/detail/jpyusd\">日元</a>。-0.0062%</li>\n</ul>\n<div class=\"related-articles seo-links\">\n <h4>相关阅读</h4>\n <ul>\n <li><a href=\"/new/mg/article-15555.html\" title=\"「随时聆听」惹隐私争议！Apple Watch新AI功能恐踩美窃听法灰色地带\">「随时聆听」惹隐私争议！Apple 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