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财经名嘴:华尔街最新「篮子交易」正创造逢低布局机会

2026-10-28 10:57:48 网络 阅读(100)

《CNBC》财经节目主持人 Jim Cramer 周一 (3 日) 表示,华尔街近期盛行的「篮子交易(Basket Trades)」正在扭曲许多股票的价格表现,投资人反而可以利用这些错价寻找布局机会。

财经名嘴:华尔街最新「篮子交易」正创造逢低布局机会

Cramer 在节目中谈到,「最棒的事?就是这些交易创造了真正的投资机会。在公司公布财报前,股价往往会脱离基本面。」

「当市场以篮子交易形成的估值,遇上真正的财报表现时,就有机会带来可观的获利。」

Cramer 指出,交易员愈来愈倾向依照特定主题将股票归类成不同「篮子」,使同一类股票同步上涨或下跌,而不是根据各家公司本身的基本面来决定股价。

他表示,这类交易方式尤其在中东冲突持续期间主导每日走势,但很多时候与企业长期前景并没有太大关联。

Cramer 以波音 (Boeing)(BA-US) 为例指出,近期波音股价愈来愈受到中东地缘政治消息影响。当市场看到外交谈判取得进展时,波音股价便上涨,若冲突升温,股价则同步下跌。但他认为,这些每日新闻并不会改变波音长期的投资价值。

Cramer 表示,「真正决定波音价值的,是现金流与飞机生产能力,而不是把波音当成交易工具。」他指出,波音目前握有约 6,200 架飞机的积压订单,这远比中东局势短期变化更值得投资人关注。

根据 Cramer,零售股近期也成为典型的篮子交易。当中东局势紧张、油价走高引发市场对通膨的担忧时,投资人开始转向好市多 (Costco)(COST-US) 与沃尔玛 (Walmart)(WMT-US),因市场认为,在消费者因油价上涨而缩减支出时,这两家公司将是受惠者,同时卖出 Ralph Lauren(RL-US)、Target(TGT-US) 及 Williams-Sonoma(WSM-US)等偏非必须性消费的零售股。

他表示,「好市多和沃尔玛都是优秀、能够长期持有的零售企业。无论战争情势如何,它们都值得投资。」

Cramer 指出,今年上半年,科技股成为华尔街最热门篮子交易之一。市场普遍追捧 AI 基础设施相关股票,同时大举卖出企业软体公司,而不论各家公司本身的营运表现如何。

他表示,市场普遍认为,AI 热潮最大的受惠者将是硬体供应商,而企业软体业者则可能因 AI 冲击传统按席位收费模式而面临压力。不过,随着这股交易趋势开始反转,基本面较佳的企业开始脱颖而出。ServiceNow(NOW-US) 与 Salesforce(CRM-US) 等公司已逐渐摆脱整体软体族群同步波动的影响,开始反映自身基本面的价值。

Cramer 坦言,短期内,篮子交易确实可能压过企业基本面,主导股价走势。但他认为,每逢财报季,市场最终仍会重新把焦点放回各家公司本身的营运表现。

他谈到,「很高兴看到基本面终究还是重要的,即使这种情况一年只有四次,在财报季时才会发生。」

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